Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 128         www.taheriexchange.com   2nd of November 2010
worldfx

"Economist believes 'U.S. dollar could lose value if QE is continued .."

"20-per-cent decline in the dollar is possible... "


Bill Gross, who has made no secret of what he thinks about more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, says the U.S. dollar could be in for a mighty fall over the next few years if the central bank were to continue on that path.

The Fed is widely expected tomorrow to unveil details of a new round of quantitative easing, dubbed QE2, an attempt to drive down long-term interest rates by buying up Treasury paper given that short-term rates can’t go any lower.

Some have questioned whether QE2 can have a meaningful impact, and whether is “debasing” its currency with such a move. Generally, the U.S. dollar has been weak but investors have buoyed stocks, counting on a hefty measure of stimulus from the Fed when it ends its two-day meeting with an announcement tomorrow afternoon.

This comes at a crucial time for the U.S. recovery, which not only is faltering but is heading into a period of expected gridlock among U.S. politicians after today’s mid-term elections, Globe and Mail New York correspondent Joanna Slater reports.

“I think a 20-per-cent decline in the dollar is possible,” Mr. Gross, the chief of PIMCO, told the Reuters news agency yesterday.

Last week on PIMCO’s website, he likened QE2 to a Ponzi scheme, and warned of the consequences for bond investors.

“When a central bank prints trillions of dollars of checks, which is not necessarily what (a second round of quantitative easing) will do in terms of the amount, but if it gets into that territory - that is a debasement of the dollar in terms of the supply of dollars on a global basis,” Mr. Gross told Reuters.

“... QE2 not only produces more dollars but it also lowers the yield that investors earn on them and makes foreigners, which is the key link to the currencies, it makes foreigners less willing to hold dollars in current form or at current prices.”

This is a key week for major central banks, Globe and Mail Washington correspondent Kevin Carmichael writes today. Not only did the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India raise rates today, but the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are set for policy decisions as well later in the week.


"Surging AUD caused by interest rate hike by the RBA .."

 "entering uncharted territory.."

bulls-bears

The Australian dollar hit its highest against the dollar since 1983 on Tuesday after a surprise Australian interest rate hike, while the U.S. currency stayed weak on expectations of fresh monetary easing.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% as a pre-emptive strike against inflation, sending the Aussie above parity to US$1.0013, its highest since the currency was floated in 1983.

The RBA's move increased the interest rate differential between Australia, where rates are rising, and the United States, where the Federal Reserve is widely seen as easing policy further on Wednesday to help stimulate the economy.

Analysts said this view would support the Australian currency while providing one more reason to dump the dollar, which already has suffered on speculation that more Fed easing will further weaken the currency.

"We're entering uncharted territory, but the Aussie has staying power up here," said Carl Hammer, chief currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

"We see it trade above parity in the mid term, as there's also the issue of general dollar selling."

Investors also anticipated results of U.S. midterm elections, with analysts saying the dollar may initially gain slightly on relief after clearing a hurdle in a week piled high with event risk.

While the market remains extremely short of dollars, participants believe those positions have been pared back in the lead-up to the midterm elections, whose results start to come in later on Tuesday, and the Fed's policy decision the next day.

Markets are generally priced for the Fed to commit to buying at least US$500-billion in Treasury debt over the coming months.

Much uncertainty surrounds the scope and pace of bond purchases, however, leaving the dollar vulnerable to choppy moves in prevailing ranges.

"If the Fed's purchase is smaller than US$500-billion, there will be more dollar buying in the near term, though I suspect the dollar will remain under pressure on expectations that the Fed will eventually expand its asset purchases," a trader at a U.S. bank said.


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro broke above 1.4000 and jumped to 1.4040, hitting the highest price since October 25 as the Dollar weakened across the board. EUR/USD has gained 150 pips from daily lows so far and erased yesterday’s losses. Pair’s upside momentum remains intact as it holds above 1.4020, near session highs.


USD: 
With no relevant U.S. data today, all eyes are on the U.S. mid-term elections and preparing for tomorrow's Fed commentary from the FOMC meeting.

We may see more selling of the USD today...another good day for buyers of the USD.


CAD:  Commodity based currencies got a boost from the RBA interest rate hike..and crude has strengthened. Earlier this morning the USD/CAD was in the higher 1.0000 levels.

Today's expected range will be from...lower 1.0000 to mid 1.0100 levels..

Expect more choppy trading today...as markets preparing for tomorrow's the FOMC meeting.


GBP:  The Pound has broken below the last two days consolidation channel, weighed by weaker than expected UK Construction PMI figures, and retreat from 1.6080 high, has extended through 1.6000 support level to hit session low at 1.5960.

JPY:
   The Dollar is trading higher against the Japanese Yen on European session and after rebound from from 80.45 support has extended to 80.80/85 resistance area, which is being tested at the moment.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0002   Resistance: 1.0146

CAD/JPY

Support:  79.28   Resistance:  80.52

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.4088  Resistance: 1.4217

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3890  Resistance: 1.4119

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5960  Resistance: 1.6088

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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