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"Economist believes 'U.S. dollar could lose value if QE is continued .."
"20-per-cent decline in the dollar is possible... "
Bill Gross, who has made no secret of what he thinks about more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, says the U.S. dollar could be in for a mighty fall over the next few years if the central bank were to continue on that path. The Fed is widely expected tomorrow to unveil details of a new round of
quantitative easing, dubbed QE2, an attempt to drive down long-term interest rates by buying up Treasury paper given that short-term rates can’t go any lower.
Some have questioned whether QE2 can have a meaningful impact, and
whether is “debasing” its currency with such a move. Generally, the U.S.
dollar has been weak but investors have buoyed stocks, counting on a
hefty measure of stimulus from the Fed when it ends its two-day meeting
with an announcement tomorrow afternoon.
This comes at a crucial time for the U.S. recovery, which not only is
faltering but is heading into a period of expected gridlock among U.S.
politicians after today’s mid-term elections, Globe and Mail New York
correspondent Joanna Slater reports.
“I think a 20-per-cent decline in the dollar is possible,” Mr. Gross,
the chief of PIMCO, told the Reuters news agency yesterday.
Last week on PIMCO’s website, he likened QE2 to a Ponzi scheme, and warned of the consequences for bond investors.
“When a central bank prints trillions of dollars of checks, which is not
necessarily what (a second round of quantitative easing) will do in
terms of the amount, but if it gets into that territory - that is a
debasement of the dollar in terms of the supply of dollars on a global
basis,” Mr. Gross told Reuters.
“... QE2 not only produces more dollars but it also lowers the yield
that investors earn on them and makes foreigners, which is the key link
to the currencies, it makes foreigners less willing to hold dollars in
current form or at current prices.”
This is a key week for major central banks, Globe and Mail Washington correspondent Kevin Carmichael writes today. Not only did the Reserve Bank of Australia and the
Reserve Bank of India raise rates today, but the European Central Bank
and the Bank of Japan are set for policy decisions as well later in the
week.
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"Surging AUD caused by interest rate hike by the RBA .."
"entering uncharted territory.."
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The
Australian dollar hit its highest against the dollar since 1983 on
Tuesday after a surprise Australian interest rate hike, while the U.S.
currency stayed weak on expectations of fresh monetary easing. The
Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to
4.75% as a pre-emptive strike against inflation, sending the Aussie
above parity to US$1.0013, its highest since the currency was floated in
1983. The RBA's move increased the interest rate
differential between Australia, where rates are rising, and the United
States, where the Federal Reserve is widely seen as easing policy
further on Wednesday to help stimulate the economy. Analysts
said this view would support the Australian currency while providing
one more reason to dump the dollar, which already has suffered on
speculation that more Fed easing will further weaken the currency. "We're
entering uncharted territory, but the Aussie has staying power up
here," said Carl Hammer, chief currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm. "We see it trade above parity in the mid term, as there's also the issue of general dollar selling." Investors
also anticipated results of U.S. midterm elections, with analysts
saying the dollar may initially gain slightly on relief after clearing a
hurdle in a week piled high with event risk. While
the market remains extremely short of dollars, participants believe
those positions have been pared back in the lead-up to the midterm
elections, whose results start to come in later on Tuesday, and the
Fed's policy decision the next day. Markets are generally priced for the Fed to commit to buying at least US$500-billion in Treasury debt over the coming months. Much
uncertainty surrounds the scope and pace of bond purchases, however,
leaving the dollar vulnerable to choppy moves in prevailing ranges. "If
the Fed's purchase is smaller than US$500-billion, there will be more
dollar buying in the near term, though I suspect the dollar will remain
under pressure on expectations that the Fed will eventually expand its
asset purchases," a trader at a U.S. bank said.
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| Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY
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EUR: The Euro broke above 1.4000 and jumped to 1.4040, hitting the highest
price since October 25 as the Dollar weakened across the board. EUR/USD
has gained 150 pips from daily lows so far and erased yesterday’s
losses. Pair’s upside momentum remains intact as it holds above 1.4020,
near session highs.
USD: With no relevant U.S. data today, all eyes are on the U.S. mid-term elections and preparing for tomorrow's Fed commentary from the FOMC meeting.
We may see more selling of the USD today...another good day for buyers of the USD.
CAD: Commodity based currencies got a boost from the RBA interest rate hike..and crude has strengthened. Earlier this morning the USD/CAD was in the higher 1.0000 levels.
Today's expected range will be from...lower 1.0000 to mid 1.0100 levels..
Expect more choppy trading today...as markets preparing for tomorrow's the FOMC meeting.
GBP: The Pound has broken below the last two days consolidation channel,
weighed by weaker than expected UK Construction PMI figures, and retreat
from 1.6080 high, has extended through 1.6000 support level to hit
session low at 1.5960.
JPY: The Dollar is trading higher against the Japanese Yen on European
session and after rebound from from 80.45 support has extended to
80.80/85 resistance area, which is being tested at the moment.
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| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP
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USD/CAD
Support: 1.0002 Resistance: 1.0146
CAD/JPY
Support: 79.28 Resistance: 80.52
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.4088 Resistance: 1.4217
EUR/USD
Support: 1.3890 Resistance: 1.4119
GBP/USD
Support: 1.5960 Resistance: 1.6088
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| Main USD/CAD data today: |
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1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.
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