Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 253          www.taheriexchange.com   4th of May 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9486      Resistance: 0.9561

CAD/JPY

Support:  84.58    Resistance:  85.58

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.4151   Resistance:  1.4242

EUR/USD

Support:  1.4862  Resistance:  1.4987

GBP/USD

Support:  1.6507  Resistance:  1.6580

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY

 

EUR:    The Euro recovery from session lows at 1.4775 ahead of Frankfurt opening, has extended on Dollar weakness after a shorter than expected increase on ADP employment figures, to breach 1.4900, reaching a fresh 16-month high at 1.4930.

USD:   The USD/CAD continues to remain in the same levels for the past few days...higher 0.9400 to 0.9500. This morning's ADP numbers...has caused slight weakness in the USD. Will the ISM non-manufacturing data due @ 10am...continue this bearish trend. Currently the USD/CAD is in the lower 0.9500 levels.

Due out tomorrow Initial jobless claims and Bernanke speaking at a Fed banking conference. The big news that the market are awaiting..NFP due out Friday.

CAD:   Now that the Canadian elections are over, Conservatives have the majority...no major moves for the Loonie in any clear direction. Commodity and equity markets are slightly down..the only volatility we may see is due on Friday when Unemployment rate and net change data due out of Canada...will shake the Loonie. The question is...can the USD/CAD break down below the lower 0.9400 to higher 0.9300 lvls...or will the trend reverse to end the week?

Due tomorrow Building permits and Ivey Purch. Mgrs Index (Canadian version of ISM numbers).

Our clients are placing orders.. to buy @  0.9500  and sellers... 0.9600.

Today's range...   possibly higher 0.9400 to higher 0.9500.

GBP:     
A slightly worse-than-expected US employment change has weakened the dollar across the board, causing Cable to spike to a fresh daily high just above 1.6550. The pair seems to find modest resistance at that mark settling just below, however remains poised to extend further over the North American session.

 
 
JPY:    The Dollar decline extended yesterday to fresh 5-week lows at 80.70, to close the day at 80.95.

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worldfx

" Mr. Harper, let's focus now on cutting ugly jobless rate  "....

" now facing the greater challenge of delivering the next wave of job growth set against a slower pace of economic growth ".....

 

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives head into the next Parliament basking in the glow of a strong mandate and a healthy economic and fiscal outlook. Indeed, Mr. Harper is doubtless the envy of many world leaders, given not only this outlook but also because of how well Canada rebounded from the recession, reclaiming ground lost to the slump in terms of output and employment.

But there’s still a blight, and Mr. Harper should make it his priority.

Statistics Canada will report on Friday that the country’s jobless rate, despite having regained the jobs killed in the downturn, remains high at about 7.6 per cent or 7.7 per cent. And only last night, Bank of Nova Scotia economists projected in a new outlook that unemployment will remain at about 7.5 per cent through next year.

Economists expect the Statistics Canada report to show job gains of between 15,000 and 25,000 for April, following an actual slight decline in March. While that would represent a new high for employment, we still shouldn’t tolerate such a high jobless rate, and that poses a challenge for the surging Conservatives.

“Looking through the monthly volatility, we expect that the three-month pace of job creation will decelerate sharply to 13,000 jobs, as the outsized 69,000 job explosion in January falls out of the calculation,” Toronto-Dominion Bank economists said in their projection for Friday’s report.

“This pace is broadly consistent with a labour market that has already recovered the jobs lost during the recession and is now facing the greater challenge of delivering the next wave of job growth set against a slower pace of economic growth.”

Consider, too, that among young people aged 15 to 24, unemployment is at an ugly 14.4 per cent, meaning many of Canada’s youth can’t take advantage of the economic rebound.

 Article provided via The Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/mr-harper-lets-focus-now-on-cutting-ugly-jobless-rate/article2009403/

 

" USD- ADP estimates U.S companies added 179,000 jobs in April  "..

" employment has begun to show signs of improvement " ...

bulls-bears

 

Companies in the U.S. added workers in April, signaling the labor market is strengthening, data from a private report based on payrolls showed today.

Employment increased by 179,000 in April, according to figures from ADP Employer Services. The median estimate in the Bloomberg News survey called for a 198,000 advance this month.

As more Americans find employment, they may be better able to cope with gasoline at the highest price in almost three years. Businesses added 200,000 jobs in April and the jobless rate held 8.8 percent, economists project a Labor Department report to show in two days.

“We still have a fairly decent pace of employment growth,” Millan Mulraine, senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities in New York, said before the report. More jobs “have provided a reasonable buffer for households, one of the reasons we haven’t seen consumer spending fall out of step despite the sharp spike in energy prices.”

Estimates for the ADP data ranged from increases of 164,000 to 240,000, according to the Bloomberg survey of 34 economists.

Over the previous six reports, ADP’s initial figure was closest to the Labor Department’s first estimate of private payrolls in February, when it understated the gain in jobs by 5,000. The estimate was least accurate in December, when it overestimated the increase in employment by 184,000.

Fewer Firings

Another report today showed U.S. employers announced fewer job cuts in April than the same month last year, a sign that the labor market is firming. Planned firings decreased 4.8 percent to 36,490 last month from April 2010, according to Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. Government agencies accounted for the biggest cutbacks by industry.

Stock-index futures were little changed after the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index maturing in June was at 1,352.2 at 8:25 a.m. in New York compared with 1,352.1 at yesterday’s close.

Today’s ADP report showed an increase of 41,000 workers in goods-producing industries, which includes manufacturers and construction companies. Employment at factories rose by 25,000.

Service providers added 138,000 workers, ADP said.

Companies employing more than 499 workers expanded their workforces by 11,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, created 84,000 jobs and small companies also increased payrolls by 84,000, ADP said.

Economy Recovering

“Employment has begun to show signs of improvement,” Scott Davis, chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc, said during an April 26 call with analysts. “In the U.S., unemployment dipped below 9 percent for the first time in almost two years, further evidence that the recovery continues.”

While payrolls have grown each month since October, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben.S. Bernanke, said on April 27 that central bankers would like to see more strength in the U.S. labor market, noting that a recovery has been “quite slow.”

“The labor market is improving gradually,” Bernanke said to reporters during the first-ever press conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “We would like to make sure that that is sustainable. The longer it goes on, the more confident we are.”

Overall payrolls, which include government workers, probably rose by 185,000 in April, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed before the Labor Department’s May 6 report.

The ADP report is based on data from about 340,000 businesses employing more than 21 million workers.

Article provided by Bloomberg News

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-04/u-s-companies-added-179-000-jobs-in-april-fewer-than-estimated-adp-says.html

 

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD - ADP employment change & ISM non-manufacturing data.
2. CAD - No relevant data.
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