Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 130         www.taheriexchange.com   4th of November 2010
worldfx

"Latin America and Asia will try to combat QE2 inflow into the markets .."

"As long as the world exercises no restraint in issuing global currencies, then the occurrence of another crisis is inevitable... "


Policymakers from the world's new economic powerhouses in Latin America and Asia pledged on Thursday to come up with fresh measures to curb capital inflows after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would print billions of dollars to rescue the economy.

Emerging economies expressed displeasure at the Fed's move, making any substantive deal on global imbalances and currencies at next week's Group of 20 meeting that Seoul is hosting even less likely.

"As long as the world exercises no restraint in issuing global currencies such as the dollar — and this is not easy -- then the occurrence of another crisis is inevitable, as quite a few wise Westerners lament," Xia Bin, an advisor to China's central bank wrote in a newspaper managed by the bank.

South Korea's Ministry of Finance and Strategy said it had sent "a message to the markets" on Thursday and would "aggressively" consider controls on capital flows while Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretary said the Fed's move could cause "retaliatory measures."

Thailand raised the possibility of concerted action to combat the flood of investment dollars that are expected to wash into emerging markets.

"The central bank governor has confirmed discussions with central banks of neighboring countries, which are ready to impose measures together if needed to curb possible speculative money flowing into the region," Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij told reporters.

A senior Indian finance official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that while the United States had a right to stimulate its own economy, others would also serve their own interests and said that any deal on currencies in Seoul had to be a "win for both the blocs."

"And that begs a political solution and that's why we are all looking to Seoul," he said.

G20 finance ministers last month thrashed out an agreement that papered over the radically different views of the two main belligerents — the United States and China — in a statement that called for competitive currency devaluations to be avoided and for governments to work toward a full suite of policies to reduce current account imbalances.

The earlier G20 deal fell short of a firmer statement to allow currencies - in particular the Chinese yuan - to rise, a measure that could have reassured investors that firm policy action was on the agenda, rather than just words.

China's Xia bluntly warned in the Chinese language Financial News that Beijing would pursue its own interests, saying: "We must think 'what is good for us.'"

"It doesn't seem to me that this is the kind of environment in which any country will commit to targets," said Credit Suisse currency strategist Olivier Desbarres.

In the wake of the Fed's move to buy US$600-billion of U.S. bonds, South Korea's central bank was seen selling its won currency on Thursday in a bid to cap gains after it hit six-month highs in the run-up to the Fed announcement.

Other high-yielding currencies also rose with the Australian dollar breaking through US$1 to its highest levels since 1982 and Japan warned that it was ready again to use intervention to halt a rising yen that would hurt its huge exporters.

In public, South Korean officials remained optimistic of a meaningful deal from the G20 but in private, optimism of a pact backed by firm numbers has been tempered by opposition from Germany and China.

"It's very difficult to say that we will have numbers (out of the summit)," said a South Korean official who declined to be named but who had direct knowledge of the talks.

CAPITAL CONTROLS, NOT MUCH OF A COP

Seoul has held off announcing controls on capital flows for fear of embarrassment ahead of the G20, but others who will participate have been less shy.

Brazil has announced a slew of measures over the past few weeks to curb the appreciation of the real currency by direct intervention in markets and doubling a tax on portfolio inflows, although the measures do not seem to have had much of an impact.

"But it is exactly because the effect is indeed small - a couple of centavos (cents) in the Brazilian real price of one U.S. dollar - both in absolute terms and in relation to the overall fluctuations of the currency, that it does not stand out in the more cursory comparison between the tracking and the actual FX rate," Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual said in a detailed study of the impact of measures taken.

Colombia announced last week a slew of measures to help counter the rise of its currency, including keeping money abroad, buying dollars in forwards markets and helping industry by cutting import tariffs.

The Hong Kong dollar fell to near the bottom of its band on Wednesday on repeated speculation in financial markets that it would have to adjust its dollar peg to staunch inflows.

Inflows have been massive. Flows into emerging market funds are US$46.4-billion in the year to the fourth week of October compared with US$9.4-billion for all of 2009, according to Global fund tracker EPFR.

In South Korea, repeated hints that there will be some form of controls appear to have been shrugged off by investors who bought more Korean bonds in October than at any time in the past year, according to official data released on Wednesday.

In fact Korea appeared to be readying as much for a time when the bubble bursts as for dealing with current inflows.

"When risk appetite goes south and dollar liquidity tightens, you find Korean banks and corporates cannot roll over their foreign exchange debt," said Credit Suisse's Desbarres.


"USD- Initial Jobless claims increased last week.."

 "The labor market is still very weak.."

bulls-bears

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, showing the labor market will take time to improve.

Jobless claims rose by 20,000 to 457,000 in the week ended Oct. 30 from a revised 437,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The total number  of people receiving unemployment insurance fell, while those on extended payments increased.

The pace of firings has held within a narrow range in 2010, showing employers continue to focus on cutting costs more than a year into the economic recovery. Calling progress toward lower joblessness and faster growth “disappointingly slow,” Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday announced plans to bolster the recovery through another round of large-scale asset purchases.

“The labor market is still very weak,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said before the report. “Things will probably improve very gradually, but really painfully.”


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro has surged about 250 pips supported by risk appetite after Fed's QE, extending the rally from 1.3730 low last week to a fresh 9 month high at 1.4265.


USD: 
Yesterday's upbeat commentary provided by the Fed, saw the equity and commodity markets surge. Overall, the total amount injected into the U.S. to some was satisfactory.

The overflow of USD into the world is where the impact will make the most damage, and how will other exporting nations deal with this surge. Only time will tell..and I still believe that a "currency war" may commence in 2011.

Overall, another great day for buyers of USD...expect more volatility commencing from tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll announcement.


CAD:  QE2 has benefited the commodity markets, giving more strength to the CAD. With more surplus USD into the market..the CAD will continue it's bullish trend.

Tomorrow, alot of Canadian and U.S. data, expect a volatile day. Yesterday the pair didn't break into the higher 0.9000 lvls...we may see a break possibly into 0.9929 (a low last reached back on 21/4/2010). All dependant on how the equity markets move today.

Today's range will see the USD/CAD...in the possibly lower 0.9000 to higher 1.0000 levels.


GBP:  The Pound's retreat from 1.6200 has been capped at 1.6135, as the Pound rocketed across the board after BoE's monetary policy announcement. The GBP/USD resumed its uptrend, breaking through 1.6205 to a fresh 9-month high at 1.6250.

JPY:
   The Dollar has dived about 40 pips lower, breaking below 80.75 to reach fresh session low levels at 80.60 after the release of downbeat US jobless claims and rather bright Non-far productivity figures.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  0.9929   Resistance: 1.0085

CAD/JPY

Support:  79.92   Resistance:  81.08

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.4219  Resistance: 1.4387

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.4133  Resistance: 1.4333

GBP/USD

Support:  1.6120  Resistance: 1.6194

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Intial Jobless claims data.
CAD - Ivey Purch. Mgrs Index data.

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