Policymakers
from the world's new economic powerhouses in Latin America and Asia
pledged on Thursday to come up with fresh measures to curb capital
inflows after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would print billions of
dollars to rescue the economy.
Emerging economies expressed
displeasure at the Fed's move, making any substantive deal on global
imbalances and currencies at next week's Group of 20 meeting that Seoul
is hosting even less likely.
"As long as the world
exercises no restraint in issuing global currencies such as the dollar —
and this is not easy -- then the occurrence of another crisis is
inevitable, as quite a few wise Westerners lament," Xia Bin, an advisor
to China's central bank wrote in a newspaper managed by the bank.
South
Korea's Ministry of Finance and Strategy said it had sent "a message to
the markets" on Thursday and would "aggressively" consider controls on
capital flows while Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretary said the Fed's move
could cause "retaliatory measures."
Thailand raised the
possibility of concerted action to combat the flood of investment
dollars that are expected to wash into emerging markets.
"The
central bank governor has confirmed discussions with central banks of
neighboring countries, which are ready to impose measures together if
needed to curb possible speculative money flowing into the region,"
Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij told reporters.
A senior
Indian finance official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that
while the United States had a right to stimulate its own economy,
others would also serve their own interests and said that any deal on
currencies in Seoul had to be a "win for both the blocs."
"And that begs a political solution and that's why we are all looking to Seoul," he said.
G20
finance ministers last month thrashed out an agreement that papered
over the radically different views of the two main belligerents — the
United States and China — in a statement that called for competitive
currency devaluations to be avoided and for governments to work toward a
full suite of policies to reduce current account imbalances.
The
earlier G20 deal fell short of a firmer statement to allow currencies -
in particular the Chinese yuan - to rise, a measure that could have
reassured investors that firm policy action was on the agenda, rather
than just words.
China's Xia bluntly warned in the Chinese
language Financial News that Beijing would pursue its own interests,
saying: "We must think 'what is good for us.'"
"It doesn't
seem to me that this is the kind of environment in which any country
will commit to targets," said Credit Suisse currency strategist Olivier
Desbarres.
In the wake of the Fed's move to buy
US$600-billion of U.S. bonds, South Korea's central bank was seen
selling its won currency on Thursday in a bid to cap gains after it hit
six-month highs in the run-up to the Fed announcement.
Other
high-yielding currencies also rose with the Australian dollar breaking
through US$1 to its highest levels since 1982 and Japan warned that it
was ready again to use intervention to halt a rising yen that would hurt
its huge exporters.
In public, South Korean officials
remained optimistic of a meaningful deal from the G20 but in private,
optimism of a pact backed by firm numbers has been tempered by
opposition from Germany and China.
"It's very difficult to
say that we will have numbers (out of the summit)," said a South Korean
official who declined to be named but who had direct knowledge of the
talks.
CAPITAL CONTROLS, NOT MUCH OF A COP
Seoul
has held off announcing controls on capital flows for fear of
embarrassment ahead of the G20, but others who will participate have
been less shy.
Brazil has announced a slew of measures over
the past few weeks to curb the appreciation of the real currency by
direct intervention in markets and doubling a tax on portfolio inflows,
although the measures do not seem to have had much of an impact.
"But
it is exactly because the effect is indeed small - a couple of centavos
(cents) in the Brazilian real price of one U.S. dollar - both in
absolute terms and in relation to the overall fluctuations of the
currency, that it does not stand out in the more cursory comparison
between the tracking and the actual FX rate," Brazilian investment bank
BTG Pactual said in a detailed study of the impact of measures taken.
Colombia
announced last week a slew of measures to help counter the rise of its
currency, including keeping money abroad, buying dollars in forwards
markets and helping industry by cutting import tariffs.
The
Hong Kong dollar fell to near the bottom of its band on Wednesday on
repeated speculation in financial markets that it would have to adjust
its dollar peg to staunch inflows.
Inflows have been
massive. Flows into emerging market funds are US$46.4-billion in the
year to the fourth week of October compared with US$9.4-billion for all
of 2009, according to Global fund tracker EPFR.
In South
Korea, repeated hints that there will be some form of controls appear to
have been shrugged off by investors who bought more Korean bonds in
October than at any time in the past year, according to official data
released on Wednesday.
In fact Korea appeared to be readying as much for a time when the bubble bursts as for dealing with current inflows.
"When
risk appetite goes south and dollar liquidity tightens, you find Korean
banks and corporates cannot roll over their foreign exchange debt,"
said Credit Suisse's Desbarres.