Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 131         www.taheriexchange.com   5th of November 2010
worldfx

"Canadian analysts view of the today's jobs number .."

"The details were better than the headline would suggest... "


TORONTO — Canada’s economy generated fewer jobs than expected for the second straight month in October, increasing the likelihood that any further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada will be pushed into late next year.

DOUG PORTER, DEPUTY CHIEF ECONOMIST, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS:

"The details were better than the headline would suggest. The headline result was a bit on the disappointing side, no question about about it. It does look like most of the finer points of the report were relatively solid. Just to give a few examples: full time employment, private sector employment and goods-producing employment all had a very strong month and those are usually the three areas I would first look at as an indication of how the underlying economy is fairing. And finally, the employment rate itself dipped a tenth, so overall there’s better news than the headline would suggest."

"There might be a trace of disappointment on the headline number, but I think on balance this doesn’t move the needle in a major way. It’s certainly not strong enough to get the Bank of Canada to change their mind on staying on hold anytime soon, but at the same token, it’s not particularly weak, so I don’t think this really has a major impact on Bank of Canada policy."

PAUL FERLEY, ASSISTANT CHIEF ECONOMIST, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA:

"The overall increase was weaker-than-expected though most of the weakness was concentrated in part-time employment. Full-time employment showed a sizable increase in the month. Despite the overall minimal gain, the unemployment rate moved down."

"The composition is a bit more favorable than the headline implies. There’s elements of strength in the report."

SACHA TIHANYI, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, SCOTIA CAPITAL:

"The full-time change in employment was far better than the overall net change in employment as private sector jobs were added by a greater margin than expected. So the underperformance is strictly off of the part-timers."

"Hourly wages increased 2.1 percent on a year-over-year basis so that’s a positive dynamic as well, supporting household consumption."

"On the headline number (the Canadian dollar) shot weaker but that was generally reversed. Although we’re starting to trade back again ... a lot of that has to do with the fact that U.S. dollar strength is in such heavy effect today. But Canada is still outperforming on the crosses."

MARKET REACTION

Canada’s dollar briefly fell to a session low after the data before recovering its poise to trade nearly unchanged on the day..

• The Canadian dollar CADD4 fell to a session trough of C$1.0095 to the U.S. dollar, or 99.06 U.S. cents, from around C$1.0065 to the U.S. dollar, or 99.35 U.S. cents, before the data.

• Overnight index swaps, which trade based on expectations for the Bank of Canada’s key policy rate, showed investors have priced in almost no chance of a December rate hike. Based on a Reuters calculation, the market is pricing in a 97.18% likelihood rates will remain on hold Dec. 7.


"USD- Non-Farm Payrolls increased, unemployment rate remained the same.."

 "CAD- Jobs grew slightly, unemployment rate dropped.."

bulls-bears

Payrolls rose more than forecast in October, a sign businesses may be starting to look past what the Federal Reserve calls the “disappointingly slow” U.S. recovery toward a faster pace of growth.

Payrolls climbed 151,000, exceeding the median estimate, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Private payrolls that exclude government agencies also gained more than forecast, while the jobless rate held at 9.6 percent, reflecting a decline in the size of the labor force.

The pickup may help ease concern that a lack of jobs will restrain household spending, the biggest part of the economy, heading into the holiday season. Fed policy makers this week announced a second round of large-scale asset purchases in a bid to lower borrowing costs, accelerate growth and prevent a protracted drop in prices.

“We’re seeing some incremental improvement in the labor market,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “Things aren’t good enough now, but we do have growth that’s likely to accelerate going forward. As the economy picks up, firms have got to add workers because they cut down so much.”



The Canadian economy had 3000 jobs last month, less than economists had expected and the second month in a row of little change.

The country's jobless rate eased to 7.9 per cent in October as more people left the labour force from 8 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday. The rate has remained around the 8-per-cent mark for the past seven months.


The report suggests employers remain cautious about hiring. While the labour market has created 375,000 jobs in the past year, most of that strength happened in the first half of 2010. Job growth averaged 51,000 positions a month in the first six months of the year, compared with 5,700 jobs a month in the past four months.

“Today’s soggy employment gain extends the broader theme of much more modest growth in Canada than seen in the opening months of the year,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in a note.

That said, details of the jobs data were “uniformly better than the headline would suggest,” he added.

October's small gains came as higher-paying full-time employment rose by 47,000 while part-time jobs fell by 44,000. In the past three months, part-time losses have been offset by full-time gains, the agency said. Private-sector positions rose – a welcome sign -- public-sector jobs were little changed and self-employment fell.

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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro retreat from yesterday's high at 1.4280 has extended about 40 pips lower on the back of better than expected US Non-Farm payrolls data, and the pair broke below 1.4100 support to reach a fresh session low at 1.4030.


USD: 
The U.S economy showed slight sign of improvement, better than expected Non-Farm payrolls data along with continual gains in the equity markets.

Once again..as it has been the whole 2-3 weeks...great buying opportunities for the USD/CAD.

Will the QE2 "aura" continuing for the next week and keep the USD in it's bullish trend?


CAD:  Commodity, equity markets..and overall investor sentiment is positive...giving great strength to the CAD.

We may finally see the USD/CAD reach  parity again ..into the lower 0.9000 (last reached 21/4/2010) levels as stated in yesterday's report.

Expected range for today on the pair....lower 0.9000 to mid 1.0000 levels.

GBP:  The Pound's retreat from yesterday's high at 1.6300 area extended over the European session to levels below 1.6200 to 1.6165 session low where the pair found support to bounce about 80 pips higher to reach 1.6245 area.

JPY:
   The Dollar jumped across the board following the release of a much better-than-expected jobs report in the US. USD/JPY broke above 81.00 and soared to 81.45 reaching a 2-day high. The pair approached to weekly highs that lie at 81.55 (Nov 3 high), erasing yesterday’s losses in a few minutes.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  0.9943   Resistance: 1.0049

CAD/JPY

Support:  80.65   Resistance:  81.72

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3950  Resistance: 1.4190

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3993  Resistance: 1.4197

GBP/USD

Support:  1.6140  Resistance: 1.6280

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment rate data.
CAD - Unemployment rate data.

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