 |
|
"Canadian analysts view of the today's jobs number .."
"The details were better than the headline would suggest... "
TORONTO
— Canada’s economy generated fewer jobs than expected for the second
straight month in October, increasing the likelihood that any further
interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada will be pushed into late next
year. DOUG PORTER, DEPUTY CHIEF ECONOMIST, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS: "The
details were better than the headline would suggest. The headline
result was a bit on the disappointing side, no question about about it.
It does look like most of the finer points of the report were relatively
solid. Just to give a few examples: full time employment, private
sector employment and goods-producing employment all had a very strong
month and those are usually the three areas I would first look at as an
indication of how the underlying economy is fairing. And finally, the
employment rate itself dipped a tenth, so overall there’s better news
than the headline would suggest." "There might be a trace of
disappointment on the headline number, but I think on balance this
doesn’t move the needle in a major way. It’s certainly not strong enough
to get the Bank of Canada to change their mind on staying on hold
anytime soon, but at the same token, it’s not particularly weak, so I
don’t think this really has a major impact on Bank of Canada policy." PAUL FERLEY, ASSISTANT CHIEF ECONOMIST, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA: "The
overall increase was weaker-than-expected though most of the weakness
was concentrated in part-time employment. Full-time employment showed a
sizable increase in the month. Despite the overall minimal gain, the
unemployment rate moved down." "The composition is a bit more favorable than the headline implies. There’s elements of strength in the report." SACHA TIHANYI, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, SCOTIA CAPITAL: "The
full-time change in employment was far better than the overall net
change in employment as private sector jobs were added by a greater
margin than expected. So the underperformance is strictly off of the
part-timers." "Hourly wages increased 2.1 percent on a
year-over-year basis so that’s a positive dynamic as well, supporting
household consumption." "On the headline number (the Canadian
dollar) shot weaker but that was generally reversed. Although we’re
starting to trade back again ... a lot of that has to do with the fact
that U.S. dollar strength is in such heavy effect today. But Canada is
still outperforming on the crosses." MARKET REACTION Canada’s dollar briefly fell to a session low after the data before recovering its poise to trade nearly unchanged on the day.. •
The Canadian dollar CADD4 fell to a session trough of C$1.0095 to the
U.S. dollar, or 99.06 U.S. cents, from around C$1.0065 to the U.S.
dollar, or 99.35 U.S. cents, before the data. • Overnight index
swaps, which trade based on expectations for the Bank of Canada’s key
policy rate, showed investors have priced in almost no chance of a
December rate hike. Based on a Reuters calculation, the market is
pricing in a 97.18% likelihood rates will remain on hold Dec. 7.
|
"USD- Non-Farm Payrolls increased, unemployment rate remained the same.."
"CAD- Jobs grew slightly, unemployment rate dropped.."
|
|

Payrolls rose more than forecast in
October, a sign businesses may be starting to look past what the
Federal Reserve calls the “disappointingly slow” U.S. recovery
toward a faster pace of growth.
Payrolls climbed 151,000, exceeding the median estimate, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.
Private payrolls that exclude government agencies also gained
more than forecast, while the jobless rate held at 9.6 percent,
reflecting a decline in the size of the labor force.
The pickup may help ease concern that a lack of jobs will
restrain household spending, the biggest part of the economy,
heading into the holiday season. Fed policy makers this week
announced a second round of large-scale asset purchases in a bid
to lower borrowing costs, accelerate growth and prevent a
protracted drop in prices.
“We’re seeing some incremental improvement in the labor
market,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont
Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report.
“Things aren’t good enough now, but we do have growth that’s
likely to accelerate going forward. As the economy picks up,
firms have got to add workers because they cut down so much.”
The Canadian economy had 3000 jobs last month, less than economists had expected and the second month in a row of little change.
The country's jobless rate eased to 7.9 per cent in October as more
people left the labour force from 8 per cent, Statistics Canada said
Friday. The rate has remained around the 8-per-cent mark for the past
seven months.
The report suggests employers remain cautious about hiring. While the
labour market has created 375,000 jobs in the past year, most of that
strength happened in the first half of 2010. Job growth averaged 51,000
positions a month in the first six months of the year, compared with
5,700 jobs a month in the past four months.
“Today’s soggy employment gain extends the broader theme of much more
modest growth in Canada than seen in the opening months of the year,”
said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in a note.
That said, details of the jobs data were “uniformly better than the headline would suggest,” he added.
October's small gains came as higher-paying full-time employment rose by
47,000 while part-time jobs fell by 44,000. In the past three months,
part-time losses have been offset by full-time gains, the agency said.
Private-sector positions rose – a welcome sign -- public-sector jobs
were little changed and self-employment fell. Want to manage currency risk and increase revenue? Learn more about
Risk Management
|
| Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY
|
EUR: The Euro retreat from yesterday's high at 1.4280 has extended about 40 pips
lower on the back of better than expected US Non-Farm payrolls data, and
the pair broke below 1.4100 support to reach a fresh session low at
1.4030.
USD: The U.S economy showed slight sign of improvement, better than expected Non-Farm payrolls data along with continual gains in the equity markets.
Once again..as it has been the whole 2-3 weeks...great buying opportunities for the USD/CAD.
Will the QE2 "aura" continuing for the next week and keep the USD in it's bullish trend?
CAD: Commodity, equity markets..and overall investor sentiment is positive...giving great strength to the CAD.
We may finally see the USD/CAD reach parity again ..into the lower 0.9000 (last reached 21/4/2010) levels as stated in yesterday's report.
Expected range for today on the pair....lower 0.9000 to mid 1.0000 levels.
GBP: The Pound's retreat from yesterday's high at 1.6300 area extended over the
European session to levels below 1.6200 to 1.6165 session low where the
pair found support to bounce about 80 pips higher to reach 1.6245 area.
JPY: The Dollar jumped across the board following the release of a much
better-than-expected jobs report in the US. USD/JPY broke above 81.00
and soared to 81.45 reaching a 2-day high. The pair approached to weekly
highs that lie at 81.55 (Nov 3 high), erasing yesterday’s losses in a
few minutes.
Want to lock in an exchange rate for the future? Learn more about
Forward Contracts
Follow our "tweets" and get up-to-date currency movements daily on Twitter @ http://twitter.com/taheriexchange
|
| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP
|
USD/CAD
Support: 0.9943 Resistance: 1.0049
CAD/JPY
Support: 80.65 Resistance: 81.72
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.3950 Resistance: 1.4190
EUR/USD
Support: 1.3993 Resistance: 1.4197
GBP/USD
Support: 1.6140 Resistance: 1.6280
Want us to monitor the market 24 hours for your target rate? Learn more about
Overnight Orders
|
|
This email contains confidential information, is intended only for the named recipient and is privileged. Distributing or copying this email without express consent of Taheri Exchange (TE) is prohibited. If you are not the named recipient, notify us immediately and permanently destroy this email and all copies. Email is not private, secure, or reliable. TE is not liable for any errors or omissions in the content or transmission of this email. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding TE. TE makes efforts to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate. TE has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein. TE shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user). The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. TE, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any products.
unscribe/subscribe to: rick@taheriexchange.com
5775 Yonge Street
Toronto, ON Canada
M2M 4J1
T: 416-488-8822
F: 416-488-4022
T: 1-888-712-999
|
|
|
| Main USD/CAD data today: |
|
1. USD- Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment rate data.
CAD - Unemployment rate data.
|
|
| Customized Service. |
| Taheri understands your business, and can tailor foreign exchange services that satisfy your unique needs |
|
|