Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 255          www.taheriexchange.com   6th of May 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9546      Resistance: 0.9632

CAD/JPY

Support:  83.52    Resistance:  84.65

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3855   Resistance:  1.3968

EUR/USD

Support:  1.4465  Resistance:  1.4581

GBP/USD

Support:  1.6371  Resistance:  1.6478

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY

 

EUR:    The Euro collapsed about 400 pips lower yesterday, following dovish comments from Trichet, and extending its retreat from one-year high at 1.4940, to 1.4505 low, to consolidate between the mentioned 1.4505 and 1.4590 resistance ahead of NFP report.

USD:   This morning's NFP results came out very positive..weakening the USD/CAD ..it fell roughly 70 pips. Yet U.S. unemployment rate came out weaker...currently the pair is @ 0.9585. This week has started off positive for the U.S. economy..with the death of Bin Laden..to bad news on jobless numbers..then today..positive newly created jobs. The volatility has been much needed ..will this continue for next week?

How will the U.S. equity markets open today...will it reverse it's negative trend and strengthen..if this results happens..expect the USD/CAD to continue on a bearish trend.

CAD:   Today's Canadian numbers via Unemployment rate and job creation...very positive. Compared to last week's GDP numbers..this is a boost for the Canadian economy. Overall, the Loonie continues to strengthen..more so from fluctuations on the commodity markets.

If the USD/CAD can break support @ 0.9542...it will trend back down into the lower 0.9500 range.

Our clients are placing orders.. to buy @  higher 0.9500  and sellers...  mid to 0.9600.

Today's range...  higher  0.9500 to mid 0.9600.

GBP:    The
Pound retreat from 1.6740/45 highs extended lower yesterday amid broad-based Dollar strength, breaking below 1.6450 support area, to find support at 1.6345 on Friday and bonnce up above 1.6400, approaching day high at 1.6435.

  
JPY:    The USD/JPY jumped from 80.30 to 80.90 in a few minutes, reaching a 2-day high and so far the biggest daily gain in a month for the US Dollar. The Yen fell sharply in the market after the report reaching fresh lows in all its crosses weakened by risk appetite and rising government bond yields.

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worldfx

" Canada's job gains beat forecasts  "....

" full-time employment has returned to the level of October 2008 for the first time ".....

 

Markets are in somewhat of a foul mood this morning as several commodities continue to sink and the Canadian dollar goes along for the ride. Canada added 58,000 jobs to its workforce in April, and reinforcing economists views the Bank of Canada will begin raising interest rates in the second half of the year, despite the recent turmoil in commodity markets.

The surge in employment brought the unemployment rate down 0.1 percentage point to 7.6%, Statistics Canada reported Friday.

The lion’s share of the new jobs — 41,000 — were part-time, the agency said, though it noted that since April 2010, full-time employment has outpaced part-time, growing by 1.9% versus 0.8% for part-time.

“With April’s slight gain, full-time employment has returned to the level of October 2008 for the first time,” Statistics Canada said. “The total number of hours worked, however, remained 0.6% below its October 2008 level.”

The job numbers should “dampen some budding concerns that the North American economy was losing some serious steam,” wrote Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for BMOCapital Markets, in a note.

“April’s headline result is certainly impressive, and suggests that the Canadian recovery is managing to grind forward despite the many slings and arrows flung at the North American economy in recent months. However, the details were not quite as impressive, and jobs may have got a least a small temporary boost from the election.”

Many economists expect the Bank of Canada to start hiking interest rates in the second half of the year.

“[The] falling jobless rate suggests conditions continue to gradually improve, still setting the stage for second-half rate hikes,” Mr. Porter said.

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at Bank of Nova Scotia, agreed. “With the labour market looking healthy, look for the Bank of Canada to begin hiking rates in July,” Mr. Shenfeld wrote in a morning note.

While both the private and public sectors have seen job growth in the past year, the public sector, at 2.8%, continues to outpace the private, at 1.6%.

Canada has added 283,000 jobs since April last year, a 1.7% increase.

“There were gains in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing as well as in business, building and other support services in April,” Statistics Canada said in its report. “Employment was essentially unchanged in the other industries.”

The agency noted that while employment levels were little changed in most demographics, employment was up for women aged 55 and over by 29,000 jobs. This demographic has seen the fastest rate of job growth in the past year, at 7.9% or 102,000 jobs.

“While one can quibble with the underlying quality of the hiring, given that it was led by part time workers, the overall picture is one of an economy moving gradually back to full employment,” Mr. Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said. “The private sector stepped up to account for the majority of the new jobs . . . The election may have helped boost public sector work, but the private sector gain was still impressive enough on its own.”

Regionally, Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador were the only provinces to see significant gains, while employment in Nova Scotia and Manitoba declined and the other provinces saw little change, Statistics Canada said.

Article provided via the Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/06/canadas-job-gains-beat-forecasts/ 

 

" U.S. jobs gains largest in 11 months, but jobless rate up  "..

" private sector accounted for all the job gains last month  " ...

bulls-bears

U.S. employment increased more than expected in April as private companies created jobs at the fast pace in five years, pointing to underlying strength in the economy, even though the jobless rate rose to 9 per cent.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 244,000 last month, the most in 11 months, the Labor Department said on Friday. The private sector accounted for all of the job gains last month, with payrolls rising 268,000, the largest rise since February 2006.

The gain in overall payrolls, above economist’ expectations for a 186,000 increase, was supportive of views the economic recovery would regain speed this quarter after stumbling in the first three months of the year on high commodity prices.

Data for the previous two months was revised to show 46,000 more jobs were added.

Gains in April marked seven straight months of net job creation, but remained too little to make much of dent on the pool of 13.7 million Americans out of work.

The unemployment rate backed away from a two-year low of 8.8 per cent. It is derived from a separate survey of households which showed a decline in employment and a moderate rise in the size of the labor force.

The unemployment rate had dropped a full percentage point since November and the latest rise will strengthen the Federal Reserve’s resolve to stick to its ultra-easy monetary policy stance.

The Fed last month signaled it was in no hurry to start withdrawing its massive stimulus for the economy, even as other major central banks around the world have begun to raise interest rates.

High gasoline and food prices clipped U.S. economic growth in first quarter. The economy grew at a 1.8-per-cent annual rate after expanding at a 3.1-per-cent clip in the final three months of last year.

The economy has recovered only a fraction of the more than 8 million jobs lost in the 2007-2009 recession. Job growth of between 250,000 and 300,000 a month is needed to make significant strides in reducing unemployment.

Details of the April employment report were generally upbeat with the exception of government employment, which contracted for a sixth straight month in April, shedding 24,000. The bulk of gains in payrolls last month were in the private services sector, which added 224,000 after 194,000 jobs March.

Employment in the goods-producing industries increased 44,000, with construction payrolls climbing by 5,000 and manufacturing hiring gaining 29,000.

The employment report also showed the average work week unchanged at 34.3 hours for a third straight month and no sign of wage inflation, with average hourly earnings rising a mere 3 cents.

Article provided via the Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/us-job-gains-largest-in-11-months-but-jobless-rate-up/article2012416/ 

 

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD - Non-farm payrolls & Unemployment rate data.
2. CAD - Unemployment rate & Net change in employment data.
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