Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 174         www.taheriexchange.com   7th of January 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9834        Resistance: 0.9973

CAD/JPY

Support:  83.56        Resistance:  84.81

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.2770     Resistance:  1.2930

EUR/USD

Support:  1.2906     Resistance:  1.3054

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5431     Resistance:  1.5587

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:    The Euro is expected to remain trading between 1.3250, maximum level and 1.2800 low which will be reached in the third quarter of 2011, according to the latest FX Poll released by Reuters.

The Euro is expected to trade at around of 1.3250 during the first three months of the year, according to a median of 60 banks and currency analysts polled by Reuters, to decline towards 1.3000 in the second quarter and extend to 1.2850 low in the third quarter, before picking up to 1.3000 by the end of the year.


USD:   Even though Non-Farm payrolls data came out weaker than expected, the positive news was the drop in U.S unemployment rate. The USD/CAD has been trending in a bearish direction since early morning.


This morning @ 9:30am Mr. Ben Bernanke testifies to the Senate Budget panel..and the markets will be awaiting his commentary..once again if his statements are dovish...expect a reversal in the current trend.


CAD:   This has been a great week for buyers of the CAD...and today is no different. Commodities and equity markets are slightly down..once Wall Street opens..if they react positively to the U.S unemployment rate...expect the CAD to strengthen further.


Today's range for the USD/CAD..... we may see new lows again since last reached in May 2008 lower 0.9800 to higher 0.9900 levels.


GBP:   Pound's retreat from week highs at 1.5625/45 extended over the Asian session to levels below 1.5435 support, to find support at 1.5405, one-week low, and bounce up on early London session, reaching 1.5460 so far.


JPY:    With the highly anticipated US nonfarm payrolls shaking the market, the USD/JPY shot down to momentarily touch below 83.00 before recovering just as quickly to the upside. In the wake of the release, the pair remains some 20 pips under its last consolidated state as it looks for support around 83.40.

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worldfx

" Geithner requesting increase to 'U.S. debt limit'  "....

" A lot of Americans are genuinely concerned about the national debt, even if they do not really understand what is needed to reduce it ".....


The Obama administration is pressing Congress to raise the government's debt limit, a typically routine request that this year promises to be considerably less so as it highlights perhaps the biggest threat facing the U.S. economy.

For decades, presidents have asked Congress to raise a debt limit first imposed during the First World War. Sometimes, lawmakers put up a fight, but ultimately they acquiesce. America’s creditworthiness is on the line.

But the U.S.’s peacetime debt burden has never been this heavy. That made U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s request to Congress on Thursday to lift the current $14.4-trillion (U.S.) debt ceiling more than routine, especially since several members of the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives have already said they intend to say “no.”

“A lot of Americans are genuinely concerned about the national debt, even if they do not really understand what is needed to reduce it,” said Joseph Gagnon, a former Treasury official who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “So raising the debt ceiling has symbolic importance.”

The U.S. deficit in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 was $1.3-trillion. Federal spending amounted to 24 per cent of gross domestic product, the most since the Second World War. The country’s debt has risen to 62 per cent of GDP from 33 per cent in 2001.

A bipartisan commission set up by President Barack Obama last year to propose ways to reduce the deficit failed to come up with a compromise.

Yields on U.S. Treasuries have been rising lately, in part because some investors are starting to question whether the U.S. political system is up to the challenge of narrowing the deficit, analysts say.

“It’s different this time,” said Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Chicago. “The stakes are larger.”

In a letter sent to all members of the House of Representatives and Senate, Mr. Geithner told lawmakers that he has about $335-billion of “headroom” before the demands of financing the budget deficit force him up against the debt ceiling.

The White House is trying to get ahead of the new Republican majority in the House, which elected Ohio’s John Boehner as speaker on Wednesday. Some newly elected Republicans, who won election on promises to dramatically cut spending, have said in recent weeks that they would vote against increasing the debt limit. Mr. Geithner’s intervention shows the Obama administration will try to counter the Republican rhetoric about the debt with a challenge to govern responsibly.

Based on the Treasury’s current revenue and spending estimates, the debt limit could be reached as early as March 31, and at the latest by the middle of May, Mr. Geithner said. Rather than wait for the last minute, the Treasury Secretary asked lawmakers to increase the debt ceiling by the end of the first quarter.

Without a change, the Treasury would be blocked by law from issuing bills and bonds to fund government operations. That would include paying interest on existing debt obligations, which would amount to default. The U.S. has never missed a debt payment in its history. To do so likely would result in higher borrowing costs, which would have a ripple effect through the economy because Treasuries act as benchmarks for consumer and corporate borrowing rates.

“Even a very short-term or limited default would have catastrophic economic consequences that would last for decades,” Mr. Geithner wrote, predicting it would result in the loss of “millions” of jobs. “Failure to increase the limit would be deeply irresponsible,” he said.

Congress first restrained the executive’s ability to borrow in 1917, when the administration of Woodrow Wilson sought approval to issue bonds to finance the U.S. entry into the First World War. The debt ceiling has been routinely raised ever since, including about 70 times since the early 1960s, according to a study by the Congressional Research Service.

But routine doesn’t always mean easy. When the parties in power in the White House and Congress misalign, the vote on the debt ceiling usually sees one side accusing the other of fiscal mismanagement. In the past, the game of chicken between the administration and Congress has forced the Treasury to take extraordinary delaying tactics, such as suspending the issue of certain securities.

“Treasury would prefer not to have to engage again in any of these extraordinary measures,” Mr. Geithner said.

Mr. Boehner said in a statement that the U.S. can afford neither default nor “recklessly” continuing to borrow. “The American people will not stand for such an increase unless it is accompanied by meaningful action by the President and Congress to cut spending and end the job-killing spending binge in Washington,” Mr. Boehner said.

A Treasury official, who spoke to reporters in Washington on the condition of anonymity, said the administration intends to significantly reduce the deficit, but believes the debt limit should be raised without linking it to changes in fiscal policy, according to a report by Bloomberg News. The official said the Obama administration believes lawmakers will vote to increase the debt ceiling.

For now, most investors will assume Mr. Obama and Mr. Boehner take their dance down to the wire, and then find a resolution to avoid the worst, said Mr. Busch. He predicted the Republicans would agree to lift the debt ceiling on a month-by-month basis to keep the issue fresh in voters’ minds.

“The Republicans aren’t going to shut down the government, but they aren’t going to make it easy for the administration,” Mr. Busch said.




"USD-  Non-Farm payrolls data disappoints, unemployment rate improves .."..

"CAD-  Job numbers and unemployment rate improves ".....

bulls-bears 

Employers added fewer jobs than forecast in December and the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4 percent, a sign a labor-market recovery will take time to develop.

Payrolls increased 103,000, compared with the median forecast of 150,000. The jobless rate fell to the lowest level since May 2009, reflecting gains in jobs and fewer people in the labor force.

Faster job growth is needed to keep consumer spending accelerating and ensure the economic recovery becomes self- sustaining. Payrolls need to grow about double December’s pace to make further progress in lowering the jobless rate, one reason why Federal Reserve policy makers have reiterated they will stick to their plan for more monetary stimulus.

“Firms must ratchet up hiring before we can expect consistent trend growth for the economy,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina said before the report. “Slower job growth will weigh on consumer spending for the next few quarters.” 



Canada's economy added more jobs than expected in December, with a net 22,000 positions created, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly held steady at 7.6 per cent.

The December gain, reported Friday by Statistics Canada, marked the end of a year that saw the economy recoup all of the jobs lost during the recession, and was concentrated in full-time, private-sector work. Economists in various surveys were anticipating 20,000 or fewer new jobs, not enough to keep the unemployment rate from nudging up to 7.7 per cent.

Full-time employment increased by 38,000 positions, compared with a drop of 16,100 in part-time work. Canadian businesses added a net 52,500 workers, led by a surge of 65,700 manufacturing jobs – the most on record – and 44,500 transportation and warehousing jobs. By contrast, 7,400 new positions were added in the public sector.

While Friday’s report implies that companies are increasingly ready to drive the recovery as the impact of government stimulus fades, hiring may have run its course for now. Analysts and policy makers say companies would be wise to focus as much or more of their attention in the months ahead on improving their competitiveness and productivity.

Still, the economy created a total of 368,500 jobs in all of 2010, Statscan said, representing a 2.2-per-cent increase in the work force after a 1.1-per-cent decrease during 2009 and making Canada the first Group of Seven country to return to pre-crisis employment levels.

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is widely expected to keep his benchmark interest rate at 1 per cent at his Jan. 18 decision, but the report intensified speculation that he’ll step off of the sidelines sooner than previously thought.

“This is a solid report, with more strength than meets the eye,” Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., said in a note to clients. “While the result will not make a big impact on Bank of Canada policy, it does solidify our view that the Bank will start to tighten before mid-year.’’

The central bank sets borrowing costs to keep inflation as close to 2 per cent as possible, and the jobs report showed that average hourly wages – a gauge of inflationary pressures in the economy – rose by 2.4 per cent in December from a year earlier, after a 2.2-per-cent year-over-year gain the month before. Another important barometer for Mr. Carney and his rate-setting panel comes Monday, when the central bank releases a quarterly survey of businesses from across the country.

Also, the impressive increase in factory jobs is just the latest sign that manufacturers are adapting to the strength of the Canadian dollar, which rose after the report and has been hovering around parity with its U.S. counterpart for months. Indeed, Ontario and Quebec – which together lost more than 75,000 factory jobs in the past year as the currency, the slow U.S. rebound and stiff competition from Asia gutted profit margins – both saw net gains of more than 20,000 jobs in December.

Even more significant, the U.S. economy, Canada’s main export market, is showing hints of starting to recover at a pace that could finally lower America's destructively high jobless rate. The increase in factory and transportation jobs, Mr. Porter surmised, “provides a tantalizing hint that the upturn in the U.S. economy is spilling over into Canada.’’


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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate & Bernanke testifies before senate budget panel data.
CAD - Net change employment & unemployment rate data.

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