The Obama administration is pressing Congress to raise the
government's debt limit, a typically routine request that this year
promises to be considerably less so as it highlights perhaps the biggest
threat facing the U.S. economy. For decades, presidents have
asked Congress to raise a debt limit first imposed during the First
World War. Sometimes, lawmakers put up a fight, but ultimately they
acquiesce. America’s creditworthiness is on the line. But the U.S.’s peacetime debt burden has never been this heavy. That
made U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s request to Congress on
Thursday to lift the current $14.4-trillion (U.S.) debt ceiling more
than routine, especially since several members of the new Republican
majority in the House of Representatives have already said they intend
to say “no.” “A lot of Americans are genuinely concerned about the
national debt, even if they do not really understand what is needed to
reduce it,” said Joseph Gagnon, a former Treasury official who is now a
senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in
Washington. “So raising the debt ceiling has symbolic importance.” The
U.S. deficit in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 was $1.3-trillion.
Federal spending amounted to 24 per cent of gross domestic product, the
most since the Second World War. The country’s debt has risen to 62 per
cent of GDP from 33 per cent in 2001. A bipartisan commission set
up by President Barack Obama last year to propose ways to reduce the
deficit failed to come up with a compromise. Yields on U.S.
Treasuries have been rising lately, in part because some investors are
starting to question whether the U.S. political system is up to the
challenge of narrowing the deficit, analysts say. “It’s different
this time,” said Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy
strategist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Chicago. “The stakes are larger.” In
a letter sent to all members of the House of Representatives and
Senate, Mr. Geithner told lawmakers that he has about $335-billion of
“headroom” before the demands of financing the budget deficit force him
up against the debt ceiling. The White House is trying to get
ahead of the new Republican majority in the House, which elected Ohio’s
John Boehner as speaker on Wednesday. Some newly elected Republicans,
who won election on promises to dramatically cut spending, have said in
recent weeks that they would vote against increasing the debt limit. Mr.
Geithner’s intervention shows the Obama administration will try to
counter the Republican rhetoric about the debt with a challenge to
govern responsibly. Based on the Treasury’s current revenue and
spending estimates, the debt limit could be reached as early as March
31, and at the latest by the middle of May, Mr. Geithner said. Rather
than wait for the last minute, the Treasury Secretary asked lawmakers to
increase the debt ceiling by the end of the first quarter. Without
a change, the Treasury would be blocked by law from issuing bills and
bonds to fund government operations. That would include paying interest
on existing debt obligations, which would amount to default. The U.S.
has never missed a debt payment in its history. To do so likely would
result in higher borrowing costs, which would have a ripple effect
through the economy because Treasuries act as benchmarks for consumer
and corporate borrowing rates. “Even a very short-term or limited
default would have catastrophic economic consequences that would last
for decades,” Mr. Geithner wrote, predicting it would result in the loss
of “millions” of jobs. “Failure to increase the limit would be deeply
irresponsible,” he said. Congress first restrained the executive’s
ability to borrow in 1917, when the administration of Woodrow Wilson
sought approval to issue bonds to finance the U.S. entry into the First
World War. The debt ceiling has been routinely raised ever since,
including about 70 times since the early 1960s, according to a study by
the Congressional Research Service. But routine doesn’t always
mean easy. When the parties in power in the White House and Congress
misalign, the vote on the debt ceiling usually sees one side accusing
the other of fiscal mismanagement. In the past, the game of chicken
between the administration and Congress has forced the Treasury to take
extraordinary delaying tactics, such as suspending the issue of certain
securities. “Treasury would prefer not to have to engage again in any of these extraordinary measures,” Mr. Geithner said. Mr.
Boehner said in a statement that the U.S. can afford neither default
nor “recklessly” continuing to borrow. “The American people will not
stand for such an increase unless it is accompanied by meaningful action
by the President and Congress to cut spending and end the job-killing
spending binge in Washington,” Mr. Boehner said. A Treasury
official, who spoke to reporters in Washington on the condition of
anonymity, said the administration intends to significantly reduce the
deficit, but believes the debt limit should be raised without linking it
to changes in fiscal policy, according to a report by Bloomberg News.
The official said the Obama administration believes lawmakers will vote
to increase the debt ceiling. For now, most investors will assume
Mr. Obama and Mr. Boehner take their dance down to the wire, and then
find a resolution to avoid the worst, said Mr. Busch. He predicted the
Republicans would agree to lift the debt ceiling on a month-by-month
basis to keep the issue fresh in voters’ minds. “The Republicans
aren’t going to shut down the government, but they aren’t going to make
it easy for the administration,” Mr. Busch said.
"USD- Non-Farm payrolls data disappoints, unemployment rate improves .."..
"CAD- Job numbers and unemployment rate improves ".....
Employers added fewer jobs than
forecast in December and the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4
percent, a sign a labor-market recovery will take time to
develop.
Payrolls increased 103,000, compared with the median
forecast of 150,000. The jobless
rate fell to the lowest level since May 2009, reflecting gains
in jobs and fewer people in the labor force.
Faster job growth is needed to keep consumer spending
accelerating and ensure the economic recovery becomes self-
sustaining. Payrolls need to grow about double December’s pace
to make further progress in lowering the jobless rate, one
reason why Federal Reserve policy makers have reiterated they
will stick to their plan for more monetary stimulus.
“Firms must ratchet up hiring before we can expect
consistent trend growth for the economy,” Jeffrey Roach, chief
economist at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina
said before the report. “Slower job growth will weigh on
consumer spending for the next few quarters.”
Canada's economy added more jobs than expected in December, with a net 22,000 positions created, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly held steady at 7.6 per cent.
The December gain, reported Friday by Statistics Canada, marked the end
of a year that saw the economy recoup all of the jobs lost during the
recession, and was concentrated in full-time, private-sector work.
Economists in various surveys were anticipating 20,000 or fewer new
jobs, not enough to keep the unemployment rate from nudging up to 7.7
per cent.
Full-time employment increased by 38,000 positions, compared with a drop
of 16,100 in part-time work. Canadian businesses added a net 52,500
workers, led by a surge of 65,700 manufacturing jobs – the most on
record – and 44,500 transportation and warehousing jobs. By contrast,
7,400 new positions were added in the public sector.
While Friday’s report implies that companies are increasingly ready to
drive the recovery as the impact of government stimulus fades, hiring
may have run its course for now. Analysts and policy makers say
companies would be wise to focus as much or more of their attention in
the months ahead on improving their competitiveness and productivity.
Still, the economy created a total of 368,500 jobs in all of 2010,
Statscan said, representing a 2.2-per-cent increase in the work force
after a 1.1-per-cent decrease during 2009 and making Canada the first
Group of Seven country to return to pre-crisis employment levels.
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is widely expected to keep his
benchmark interest rate at 1 per cent at his Jan. 18 decision, but the
report intensified speculation that he’ll step off of the sidelines
sooner than previously thought.
“This is a solid report, with more strength than meets the eye,” Douglas
Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., said in a
note to clients. “While the result will not make a big impact on Bank of
Canada policy, it does solidify our view that the Bank will start to
tighten before mid-year.’’
The central bank sets borrowing costs to keep inflation as close to 2
per cent as possible, and the jobs report showed that average hourly
wages – a gauge of inflationary pressures in the economy – rose by 2.4
per cent in December from a year earlier, after a 2.2-per-cent
year-over-year gain the month before. Another important barometer for
Mr. Carney and his rate-setting panel comes Monday, when the central
bank releases a quarterly survey of businesses from across the country.
Also, the impressive increase in factory jobs is just the latest sign
that manufacturers are adapting to the strength of the Canadian dollar,
which rose after the report and has been hovering around parity with its
U.S. counterpart for months. Indeed, Ontario and Quebec – which
together lost more than 75,000 factory jobs in the past year as the
currency, the slow U.S. rebound and stiff competition from Asia gutted
profit margins – both saw net gains of more than 20,000 jobs in
December.
Even more significant, the U.S. economy, Canada’s main export market, is
showing hints of starting to recover at a pace that could finally lower
America's destructively high jobless rate. The increase in factory and
transportation jobs, Mr. Porter surmised, “provides a tantalizing hint
that the upturn in the U.S. economy is spilling over into Canada.’’
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