Unrest in Egypt added fuel to the fire under global oil prices, with the
leading international crude topping $100 (U.S.) a barrel for the first
time since 2008, as traders worried about supply disruptions and
political upheaval in the Middle East.
While the drama in Egypt was a key contributor to crude price increases
on Monday, analysts say oil is also climbing on signs of resurgence in
industrialized economies and simmering inflation in key emerging
markets.\
Oil prices were up sharply across the board, despite there being no
clear threat to the transport of crude through the Suez Canal or a key
pipeline connecting Middle East producers with European markets.
“This upheaval came out of left field and really surprised people,” said
Michael Lynch, president of Cambridge, Mass.-based Strategic Energy
& Economic Research. “People are afraid of a domino effect –
spreading to places like Saudi Arabia – and that’s helping to affect the
market.”
Rising oil prices threaten to undermine the global recovery by driving
up the cost of transportation for businesses and consumers, leaving
drivers with less money to spend on other goods. Higher oil costs are
also spurring broader inflation pressure, at a time when rising prices
for food and other items are forcing emerging economies such as India to
raise interest rates.
On Tuesday, in London, Brent crude was down 49 cents at $100.52 a barrel
on the ICE Futures exchange. On Monday, crude traded as high as
$101.73. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for March
delivery was down 60 cents to $91.59 a barrel in electronic trading on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $2.85, or 3.2 per
cent, to settle at $92.19 on Monday.
North Sea Brent crude – which is a benchmark for global prices – climbed
$1.53 to around $101 a barrel Monday, while North America’s
trendsetting West Texas intermediate (91.58-0.61-0.66%)(WTI)
shot up $3.11 or 3.5 per cent to $92.45 (U.S.) in trading in New York.
WTI prices have lagged Brent due in part to the glut of crude, including
Canadian imports, at the Cushing, Okla., hub where it is priced.
Oil prices rose through the final quarter of 2010 and through much of
January, with Brent flirting with the $100 mark several times. But Brent
and West Texas - which sets the benchmark for Canadian crude - had
retreated prior to the eruption of demonstrations in Egypt that demanded
an end of the regime of dictator Hosni Mubarak.
Some three million barrels a day of crude and refined products are
transported through the Suez Canal and an adjacent pipeline. So far,
both facilities are operating normally, but higher crude prices reflect
the re-emergence of a political-risk premium that had long been absent
from the market.
“European inventories are not too bad. So if you lost the Suez Canal, I
don’t think it would be a big problem,” Mr. Lynch said. “But it is the
sort of thing that traders get nervous about.”
In the event of a complete closing of the canal, producers would have to
ship supplies to Europe around the Horn of Africa – delaying deliveries
by as much as 10 days.
North American prices also got a bounce from signs that the U.S. economy
is picking up momentum, as Americans’ consumer spending in December
rose sharply.
“There is a fundamental demand for crude oil that is going to hang
around after Egypt’s problems quiet down,” said Hamza Khan, an analyst
with the Schork Report, an investing newsletter.
“The Suez Canal is critical and we’re going to see an increase in
volatility. But the political uncertainty is just one of the factors
causing the rally – there are a host of increasing consumer demands
factors which have been pushing markets higher over the last several
weeks.”
The rebound in global economic growth last year – primarily in emerging
markets – drove demand for crude oil up by some 2.8 million barrels a
day to 87.8 million barrels. While that pace is expected to slow in
2011, the growth should be enough to maintain prices around the $100
mark, says Deutsche Bank energy economist Adam Sieminski.
But the riots in Egypt – which were caused in part by rising food costs
and high unemployment – also serve as a reminder to the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries that higher crude prices carry a political
cost that may rebound on them.
Saudi Arabia – with nearly five million barrels a day of idled
production capacity – has signalled it would boost production if
necessary to moderate any price increases, whether they are caused by
political risk or higher consumption.
Prices have been climbing around the world, helping to fuel unrest in
regions such as North Africa, The Globe and Mail’s Paul Waldie reports
today. But, so far, food inflation has been tame in Canada.
Capital Economics, however, says in a research report that soaring
commodity prices will catch up and boost food inflation in Canada to
about 5 per cent later this year, from its current level just shy of 2
per cent. That would add 0.8 percentage points to the overall rise in
the consumer price index, said David Madani, Canada economist at Capital
Economics in Toronto.
“However, we think this relative price shock will be temporary, as
commodity prices will fall back,” he said. “Despite the pick-up in
pipeline inflation, underlying inflation is likely to be contained by
disinflationary pressures from excess industrial capacity, high
unemployment, moderating wage wage growth, and slower growth in broad
money supply.”