Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 191         www.taheriexchange.com   1st of February 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9914        Resistance: 1.0009

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.29        Resistance:  82.27

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3636     Resistance:  1.3790

EUR/USD

Support:  1.3692     Resistance:  1.3819

GBP/USD

Support:  1.6014     Resistance:  1.6140

Want us to monitor the market 24 hours for your target rate? Learn more about       Overnight Orders  

 

Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:   While the EUR/USD remains mostly bullish today, reaching as high as 1.3775 around mid-day over European trading, the pair most recently eases slightly to the downside towards the day´s opening price. Currently the pair quotes around 1.3730 as it pulls back more than 40 pips from its earlier peak.

While remaining mostly consolidated around 1.3720 over Asia, the EUR/USD has seen choppy trading over Europe following a slew of PMI manufacturing reports as well as employment figures throughout the EU. Still, the pair remains buoyed to the upside of 1.3700 as the dollar continues weakened against major rivals due to diminishing concerns of political unrest in Egypt.

USD:   Today...continuing news out of Egypt has not caused a major move for the USD/CAD...still remaining in the higher 0.9900 range. Later this morning...ISM data is due out @ 10am. The "parity" range has been hovering since mid December 2010 and continuing ...

Can this bearish trend on the U.S. continue for the next 2 mths...???

CAD:   Commodity and equity markets are in their choppy ranges once again. Later this week due on Friday, will be key CAD data...net employment change (U.S. non-farm payroll equivalent) and unemployment rate that may cause the Loonie to dip down to higher 0.9800 range..all dependant on the levels for the week.

Good day for both buyers and possibly sellers of USD.

Today's range .. lower 0.9900 to 1.0000 levels.

GBP:   The Pound's recovery from 1.5820 low yesterday has surged higher over the European session, buoyed by upbeat manufacturing activity figures in the UK, to reach a fresh two month high at 1.6140, before pulling back ahead of the US session opening, trading at 1.6080.


JPY:    The Dollar slide holds firm across the board, with USD/JPY reaching 81.46 fresh weekly low, and consolidating just above that level. Despite stocks gains both in Europe and in US futures, yen is heading higher on strong commodity prices.

Want to lock in an exchange rate for the future? Learn more about

Forward Contracts

Follow our "tweets" and get up-to-date currency movements daily on Twitter @ http://twitter.com/taheriexchange
 

 

worldfx

" Egyptian crisis spikes oil to $100  "....

" This upheaval came out of left field and really surprised people ".....

Unrest in Egypt added fuel to the fire under global oil prices, with the leading international crude topping $100 (U.S.) a barrel for the first time since 2008, as traders worried about supply disruptions and political upheaval in the Middle East.

While the drama in Egypt was a key contributor to crude price increases on Monday, analysts say oil is also climbing on signs of resurgence in industrialized economies and simmering inflation in key emerging markets.\

Oil prices were up sharply across the board, despite there being no clear threat to the transport of crude through the Suez Canal or a key pipeline connecting Middle East producers with European markets.

“This upheaval came out of left field and really surprised people,” said Michael Lynch, president of Cambridge, Mass.-based Strategic Energy & Economic Research. “People are afraid of a domino effect – spreading to places like Saudi Arabia – and that’s helping to affect the market.”

Rising oil prices threaten to undermine the global recovery by driving up the cost of transportation for businesses and consumers, leaving drivers with less money to spend on other goods. Higher oil costs are also spurring broader inflation pressure, at a time when rising prices for food and other items are forcing emerging economies such as India to raise interest rates.

On Tuesday, in London, Brent crude was down 49 cents at $100.52 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. On Monday, crude traded as high as $101.73. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for March delivery was down 60 cents to $91.59 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $2.85, or 3.2 per cent, to settle at $92.19 on Monday.

North Sea Brent crude – which is a benchmark for global prices – climbed $1.53 to around $101 a barrel Monday, while North America’s trendsetting West Texas intermediate (91.58-0.61-0.66%)(WTI) shot up $3.11 or 3.5 per cent to $92.45 (U.S.) in trading in New York. WTI prices have lagged Brent due in part to the glut of crude, including Canadian imports, at the Cushing, Okla., hub where it is priced.

Oil prices rose through the final quarter of 2010 and through much of January, with Brent flirting with the $100 mark several times. But Brent and West Texas - which sets the benchmark for Canadian crude - had retreated prior to the eruption of demonstrations in Egypt that demanded an end of the regime of dictator Hosni Mubarak.

Some three million barrels a day of crude and refined products are transported through the Suez Canal and an adjacent pipeline. So far, both facilities are operating normally, but higher crude prices reflect the re-emergence of a political-risk premium that had long been absent from the market.

“European inventories are not too bad. So if you lost the Suez Canal, I don’t think it would be a big problem,” Mr. Lynch said. “But it is the sort of thing that traders get nervous about.”

In the event of a complete closing of the canal, producers would have to ship supplies to Europe around the Horn of Africa – delaying deliveries by as much as 10 days.

North American prices also got a bounce from signs that the U.S. economy is picking up momentum, as Americans’ consumer spending in December rose sharply.

“There is a fundamental demand for crude oil that is going to hang around after Egypt’s problems quiet down,” said Hamza Khan, an analyst with the Schork Report, an investing newsletter.

“The Suez Canal is critical and we’re going to see an increase in volatility. But the political uncertainty is just one of the factors causing the rally – there are a host of increasing consumer demands factors which have been pushing markets higher over the last several weeks.”

The rebound in global economic growth last year – primarily in emerging markets – drove demand for crude oil up by some 2.8 million barrels a day to 87.8 million barrels. While that pace is expected to slow in 2011, the growth should be enough to maintain prices around the $100 mark, says Deutsche Bank energy economist Adam Sieminski.

But the riots in Egypt – which were caused in part by rising food costs and high unemployment – also serve as a reminder to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that higher crude prices carry a political cost that may rebound on them.

Saudi Arabia – with nearly five million barrels a day of idled production capacity – has signalled it would boost production if necessary to moderate any price increases, whether they are caused by political risk or higher consumption.


" Food prices predicted to rise .."..

" soaring commodity prices will catch up and boost food inflation in Canada to about 5 % later this year".....

bulls-bears

Canada has yet to feel the sting of surging food costs but that’s about to change, a new forecast suggests.

Prices have been climbing around the world, helping to fuel unrest in regions such as North Africa, The Globe and Mail’s Paul Waldie reports today. But, so far, food inflation has been tame in Canada.

Capital Economics, however, says in a research report that soaring commodity prices will catch up and boost food inflation in Canada to about 5 per cent later this year, from its current level just shy of 2 per cent. That would add 0.8 percentage points to the overall rise in the consumer price index, said David Madani, Canada economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

“However, we think this relative price shock will be temporary, as commodity prices will fall back,” he said. “Despite the pick-up in pipeline inflation, underlying inflation is likely to be contained by disinflationary pressures from excess industrial capacity, high unemployment, moderating wage wage growth, and slower growth in broad money supply.”


Want to manage currency risk and increase revenue? Learn more about    Risk Management  

 


This email contains confidential information, is intended only for the named recipient and is privileged. Distributing or copying this email without express consent of Taheri Exchange (TE) is prohibited. If you are not the named recipient, notify us immediately and permanently destroy this email and all copies. Email is not private, secure, or reliable. TE is not liable for any errors or omissions in the content or transmission of this email. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding TE. TE makes efforts to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate. TE has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein. TE shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user). The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. TE, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any products.

unscribe/subscribe to: rick@taheriexchange.com

                                               5775 Yonge Street
                                              Toronto, ON Canada
                                                        M2M 4J1
                                                  T: 416-488-8822
                                                  F: 416-488-4022
                                                T: 1-888-712-999
Forward Contracts

Risk Management

Overnight Orders

Contact Us

Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- ISM manufacturing data.
CAD - No relevant data.

handshake
Customized Service.
Taheri understands your business, and can tailor foreign exchange services that satisfy your unique needs
View our archived FX reports
http://www.taheriexchange.com/news

Share this