Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 149         www.taheriexchange.com   1st of December 2010
worldfx

" World stocks rebound .."

"You really need some aggressive action from authorities in Europe to try to calm nerves and that's really the key at this stage... "


Signs of robust economic growth in China and recovery in parts of Europe lifted world stocks on Wednesday while a relatively successful Portuguese debt sale helped ease short-term fears about the eurozone’s debt crisis.

The euro was up close to US$1.31, European shares rose nearly 1% and Japan was half a per cent higher. Wall Street also looked set to open stronger.

The cost of insuring Portuguese and other peripheral euro zone sovereign debt against default fell.

Better-than-expected Chinese factory data in November, with the official Chinese purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rising to a seven-month high of 55.2, showed health in one of the world’s largest economic engines, lifting sentiment. In Europe, the eurozone’s manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in four months in November, led by heavyweights Germany and France. Britain’s manufacturing hit a 16-year high.

Serious concerns remained, however, about the pressure on eurozone debt and the methods by which it might be eased.

Fears were eased slightly after debt-ridden Portugal successfully sold 500 million euros in 12-month T-bills although borrowing costs rose to 5.281% from 4.813% previously, in a fresh sign of that investors expect Portugal to follow Ireland and Greece to seek a bailout.

Standard & Poor’s warning on Tuesday that it could cut Portugal’s credit ratings if growth prospects weakened further was having little impact.

There were also signs that the eurozone debt crisis was raising concerns among global policymakers. G20 deputy finance ministers discussed "the financial situation in Europe" on Monday in a teleconference, a senior G20 source in Asia said, and a top U.S. Treasury official is travelling to Europe.

The euro bounced back from recent lows to stand above US$1.30 EUR, up around three quarters of a per cent.

Analysts cautioned, however, that pressure could return quickly, especially if peripheral yield spreads began to widen again or if bond auctions were poor. Spain comes to the market on Thursday.

"You really need some aggressive action from the authorities in Europe to try and calm nerves and that’s really the key at this stage," said Greg Gibbs, a strategist at RBS in Sydney.

The extent of the damage to bond holders was underlined by new Citi bond returns data showing eurozone bonds lost 2.69% in November, with Ireland tumbling more than 11%, Spain more than 7% and nearly Portugal 5.8%.

STOCKS REBOUND

The Chinese and European data lifted risk appetite on stock markets. Although some countries fear Chinese policy tightening if the economic is deemed to be rising too fast, good growth in China is typically a booster for export-oriented countries.

MSCI’s all-country world stocks index was up 0.8% and its emerging market counterpart gained a solid 1.5%.

European stocks also rose sharply with the FTSEurofirst 300 gaining 1.1%.

As with the euro, however, analysts said the sentiment could easily be flipped by poor news on the eurozone bond front.

"We’re getting a technical rebound. A number of indicators showed the indexes as ’oversold’, and some investors have started looking for bargains. But we’re keeping a close eye on bond yield spreads to see if this stock rebound has legs," said Harry Sebag, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque.




"USD- ADP numbers came out positive for November.."

 "November;s gain in private-sector employment is the largest in three years.."
bulls-bears

Companies in the U.S. added 93,000 workers to payrolls in November, according to figures from ADP Employer Services.

The ADP number was forecast to show a gain of 70,000 jobs. Projections ranged from gains of 40,000 to 125,000.

Over the previous six reports, ADP’s initial figures were closest to the Labor Department’s first estimate of private payrolls in May, when it overstated the gain in jobs by 14,000. The estimate was least accurate in October, when it underestimated the employment gain by 116,000. 

The report concludes that: "November’s gain in private-sector employment is the largest in three years. This is the tenth consecutive month of gains, which have averaged 47,000 during that period. Nevertheless, employment gains of this magnitude are not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate, which likely will remain above 9% for all of 2011."


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro is taking back lost ground as Eurozone debts ease and spreads tighten, and EUR/USD recovery from 1.2965 low on Asian session has extended to levels above 1.3100 to reach session high at 1.3115.

USD:  Yesterday's bullish trend for the USD reversed today, strong ADP numbers, and Eurozone worries placed on hold providing relief to the world stock markets. Still to come are the ISM (10am) and Beige Book (2pm). If the positive data continues, the expected 1.0300 range will not be reached..and the USD/CAD may trend into the lower 1.0100 levels.

All dependant on investors reaction to the news later this morning and afternoon. Markets are awaiting the highly anticipated Non Farm payrolls data..which will cause further movements in the markets.

CAD:  Commodity and stock markets performing well during Asian and European sessions. Markets are awaiting further U.S. data...will this bearish trend continue today?

Yesterday great opportunity for sellers of USD..today..the reverse..good buying rates.

Expected range...lower 1.0100 to mid 1.0200 levels.

GBP:  The Pound's recovery from 10-week low at 1.5480 extended above 1.5600 during European session, supported by better than expected manufacturing figures, and the pair reached Monday's high at 1.5650 where sellers came up to push it back below 1.5600.

JPY:    Dollar decline from 84.80 high on Monday found support at 83.35 on Asian session, and the pair has bounced up on early European trading, reaching 83.80 session high, with the Yen trimming gains across the board as risk aversion continues.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.0122   Resistance: 1.0244

CAD/JPY

Support:  82.04   Resistance:  83.27

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3258  Resistance: 1.3435

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.2978  Resistance: 1.3236

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5527  Resistance: 1.5679

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment Change & Beige Book data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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