Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 218          www.taheriexchange.com   11th of March 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9720        Resistance: 0.9821

CAD/JPY

Support:  83.42        Resistance:  84.30

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3450      Resistance:  1.3535

EUR/USD

Support:  1.3732      Resistance:  1.3838

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5963      Resistance:  1.6055

Want us to monitor the market 24 hours for your target rate? Learn more about       Overnight Orders 


Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:   The EUR/USD extends its weekly slide from a 4-month high of 1.4036 on Monday towards 1.3750 today, as the earthquake in Japan exacerbates an already risk-averse environment due to heightened concerns regarding European sovereign debt. The pair had earlier found support overnight to remain consolidated to the upside of 1.3800, however has dropped underneath as traders hedge their exposure to the common currency.

USD:   Earlier this morning Retail sales out of the U.S. slightly better than expected..in my view..not truly strong enough results for a rebound in the U.S. economy. Markets digesting more destruction in Japan and awaiting the Univ. of Michigan Confidence report due later @ 10am today. If this nes comes out positive..we may see a minor bearish trend for the pair...

Since the USD/CAD had risen to the 0.9800 lvl..will this mark be reached again today once U.S. equity markets open?

CAD:    Weaker data from Canada re: Unemployment rate and jobs data come out short. Today's news definintely has shown that Canada's economy is stagnating..and growth will progress at a "turtle's pace".  The news out of Japan has weakened the equity and commodity markets..and the USD/CAD had risen to the 0.9800 level earlier this morning.

Opportunities are available for both buyers and sellers of the USD.

Expected range ..   possible lower  0.9700 to lower  0.9800 levels. Once again dependant on the movement in the U.S. equity markets.


GBP:    The Pound recovery attempt from 1.6035 low yesterday has been capped at 1.6075 on early Asian session and the pair has resumed its retreat from 1.6345 amid strong risk aversion on European trading, to reach fresh 4-week lows below 1.6000.

JPY:   The Dollar rose on Yen weakness after the first news of the massive earthquake in Japan, to cap at 83.30 high, and drop during European session to pare weekly gains, hitting 82.00 low, with JPY surging, favoured by repatriation flows by Japanese companies and Investors.


Want to lock in an exchange rate for the future? Learn more about

Forward Contracts

Follow our "tweets" and get up-to-date currency movements daily on Twitter @ http://twitter.com/taheriexchange
 

 

worldfx

" Quake in Japan causes economy fears  "....

" The extent of the damage is hard to tell but it seems devastating for the northern Japan economy   ".....

 

Auto plants, electronics factories and refineries shut across large parts of Japan on Friday after a powerful earthquake rocked the country, triggering a tsunami, buckling roads and knocking out power to millions of homes and businesses.

Leaders of the ruling and opposition parties pushed for an emergency budget to help fund relief efforts after Prime Minister Naoto Kan asked them to "save the country", Kyodo news agency.

The Bank of Japan, which has been struggling to boost the anaemic economy, said it would do its utmost to ensure financial market stability as air force jets roared toward the northeast coast to assess the damage from the biggest quake to hit the country in 140 years.

The 8.9 magnitude quake sent shares skidding in Japan and elsewhere, adding to a slide in global stocks to their lowest level in nearly six weeks.

Several airports, including Tokyo’s Narita, were closed and rail services halted. All of the country’s ports were closed.

Electronics giant Sony Corp , one of the country’s biggest exporters, shut six factories, Kyodo news agency reported.

"There are car and semiconductor factories in northern Japan, so there will be some economic impact due to damage to factories," said Yasuo Yamamoto, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo.

At least 44 people were killed, Kyodo said, and many were injured in the quake, with fires breaking out from Sendai city in northern Japan to Tokyo. A tsunami 10 metres high hit Sendai port in Miyagi Prefecture, about 300 km (180 miles) northeast of Tokyo, but there were no immediate reports of damage.

Miyagi and its surrounding areas include major manufacturing and industrial zones, with many chemical and electronics plants. But early reports from the area were sketchy and it was not clear if some plants were shut simply due to a lack of power or because of quake damage.

Miyagi, the area most affected by the quake, accounts for 1.7 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP), Macquarie Research said.

"There are two basic economics-related concerns. The first is that the fragile economic cycle is not in a position to withstand significant disruption," Macquarie said in a note.

"The second is that the combination of a softer economy and the additional strain on public finances will put upward pressure on bond yields."

Toyota Motor Corp said it had halted production at a parts factory and two assembly plants in the area, while Nissan Motor Co , the country’s second-largest automaker, stopped operations at four factories, media reported.

Two people were reported killed by a collapsing ceiling at a Honda Motor Co factory in Tochigi Prefecture, north of Tokyo, but no other details were immediately available.

QUAKE ADDS TO MARKET WORRIES

The quake occurred as the world’s third-largest economy was showing signs of reviving after shrinking in the final quarter of last year. The disaster raised the prospect of major disruptions for many key businesses, at least in the short term.

The yen fell as much as 0.3 percent against the dollar before recouping its losses, while Nikkei stock futures

plunged nearly 5 percent at one point.

The disaster also weighed on markets elsewhere, pushing shares in European insurance companies down. Large reinsurers — Swiss Re , Hannover Re and Munich Re

— were all down more than 4 percent.

World stocks measured by the MSCI dropped 0.4 percent to their lowest level since the end of January.

The quake hit just before the Tokyo stock market closed, so prices didn’t fully factor in the scale of the disaster.

"Stocks will probably fall on Monday, especially of those companies that have factories in the affected areas, but on the whole the selloff will likely be short-lived," said Mitsuhsige Akino, a fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management.

Bond futures surged on worries the widespread damage would put further pressure on the economy, while the most active gold contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, February 2012 , inched higher.

"We still don’t know the full scale of the damage, but considering what happened after the earthquake in Kobe, this will certainly lead the government to compile an emergency budget. We can expect consumption to fall. This could temporarily pull down gross domestic product," Yamamoto said.

With Japanese interest rates already near zero, analysts said the central bank and the government had few options but to inject more money into the economy, even if it risked swelling the already bloated deficit.

"The extent of the damage is hard to tell but it seems devastating for the northern Japan economy. The government must act quickly to announce support packages and the central bank should pump more money into the economy," said Tsutomu Yamada, a market analysts at Kabu.com Securities.

The 1995 quake that devastated Kobe caused $100 billion in damage, though industrial production and financial markets bounced back fairly quickly.

"The government would have to sell more bonds, but this is an emergency, so this can’t be avoided," Yamamoto said.

"Given where the Bank of Japan’s benchmark interest rate is now, they can’t really lower rates. The BOJ will focus on providing liquidity, possibly by expanding market operations."

POWER PLANTS, REFINERIES SHUT

Hokuriku Electric Co said all of three reactors at its Onagawa nuclear plant Japan shut down automatically after the quake, but no radioactive leaks were reported.

Electric Power Development (J-Power) also halted operations of its Isogo thermal power plant in Yokohama, Jiji reported.

Television reported a major fire at Cosmo Oil Co’s Chiba refinery, east of Tokyo. JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corp, Japan’s top refiner, halted operations at three refineries in Sendai, Kashima and Negishi, while Tonengeneral shut the main units at its Kawasaki refinery, media said.

Japanese media also reported a fire at JFE Holdings Inc’s

steel plant in Chiba. JFE, the world’s fifth-largest steelmaker, said there was no major impact.

Primearth EV Energy Co Ltd, a joint venture between Panasonic Corp and Toyota making batteries for environmentally friendly vehicles, said its Miyagi battery factory had halted production because of power cuts. The extent of any damage was not clear, but a spokesman said it did not appear to be major.

Mitsui Mining and Mitsubishi Material halted operations at zinc and copper smelters in the region.

 

" USD -  Advance retail sales rose slightly in February  "..

" CAD-  Unemployment rate and jobs data come out weaker in February " ...

bulls-bears 

U.S. retail sales climbed in February by the most in four months, spurred by job gains and more seasonable temperatures.

The 1.0 percent increase in purchases followed a revised 0.7 percent rise in January that was more than double the previous estimate, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. February sales, boosted by a jump in auto purchases and more expensive gasoline,  J.C. Penney Co. and Macy's Inc. were among retailers that topped analysts’ same-store sales estimates, a sign household spending is holding up after the strongest quarterly gain in four years. While higher fuel costs are a headwind for American consumers, bigger paychecks stemming from a tax compromise reached by President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans may help support demand in coming months.

“Consumers are not yet showing any ill effects from rising food and energy prices,” said Julia Coronado chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York. “The numbers are consistent with consumers spending at a slower pace than the fourth quarter but still a solid pace of spending.”

 

 

The Canadian economy created 15,000 jobs last month, less than expected and not enough to budge the country’s jobless rate.

Canada’s jobless rate remained at 7.8 per cent in February, Statistics Canada said Friday.

Details of the report were soft. Part-time employment rose and full-time work fell. Part-time positions grew by 38,900 in February, while full-time jobs declined by 23,800. In the past year, part-time employment has grown by 5.1 per cent, while full time increased by 1.1 per cent. Total hours worked dipped 0.2 per cent, the third monthly slip in a row.

“Underwhelming,” said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns in a note. “If anything, the subdued nature of the report confirms that there is no rush for policy makers to shift gears [and raise interest rates], especially given the increasingly tumultuous global backdrop.”

Job growth stalled last month after healthier gains recently. Employment levels have risen by 115,000 over the past three months and by 322,000 in the past year.

Among sectors, health care and social assistance along with and accommodation and food services boosted employment. Business, building and other support services along with public administration cut head count.

Direct government jobs also fell 13,500, perhaps in a hint of what’s to come as stimulus turns to restraint.

The number of self-employed workers grew by 26,000, while the number of private sector employees fell and public sector employment changed little. Over the past year, however, self-employment edged down 0.6 per cent, while the pace of growth for private sector employees matched that of the public sector, at 2.4 per cent, the agency said.

Economists had expected about 25,000 new jobs would be added last month with the jobless rate ticking lower to 7.7 per cent.

Alberta was the only province with a sizable employment gain in February, with a gain of 14,000 and pulling the jobless rate down to 5.7 per cent from 5.9 per cent. The province hit an employment low in Feb. 2010; since then, job growth has surged 3.4 per cent, well above the national rate of 1.9 per cent as the manufacturing and natural resource sectors ramped up.

Employment declined in Saskatchewan and was little changed in other provinces last month.

Youth unemployment eased to 14.3 per cent from 14.4 per cent in February.

There was little change in employment levels among men and women aged 25 to 54 and 55 and over. Over the past year, employment growth has been by far fastest among women aged 55 and over in the past year, at 8 per cent, followed by men in the same age group, at 4.6 per cent. Men aged 25 to 54 saw growth of 2 per cent while employment for women in that age group was unchanged.

 

Want to manage currency risk and increase revenue? Learn more about    Risk Management  

 


This email contains confidential information, is intended only for the named recipient and is privileged. Distributing or copying this email without express consent of Taheri Exchange (TE) is prohibited. If you are not the named recipient, notify us immediately and permanently destroy this email and all copies. Email is not private, secure, or reliable. TE is not liable for any errors or omissions in the content or transmission of this email. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding TE. TE makes efforts to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate. TE has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein. TE shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user). The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. TE, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any products.

unscribe/subscribe to: rick@taheriexchange.com

                                               5775 Yonge Street
                                              Toronto, ON Canada
                                                        M2M 4J1
                                                  T: 416-488-8822
                                                  F: 416-488-4022
                                                T: 1-888-712-999
Forward Contracts

Risk Management

Overnight Orders

Contact Us

Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD - Advance retail sales & Univ. of Mich. Confidence report data.
2. CAD - Unemployment rate & Net change  data.

handshake
Customized Service.
Taheri understands your business, and can tailor foreign exchange services that satisfy your unique needs
View our archived FX reports
http://www.taheriexchange.com/news
 


Share this