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" Harper 'supports QE2' at G20 summit .."
"the QE2 policy is in the short term the only option available... "
Prime Minister Stephen Harper came to the defense of Canada's biggest
trading partner Thursday, challenging the many critics of the U.S.
Federal Reserve's plan to create $600-billion (U.S.) to buy financial
assets to come up with something better. Mr. Harper made the
comment before the official start of the Group of 20 Summit in Seoul.
The Fed's decision last week to resume purchasing securities in a bid to
lower interest rates has become a preoccupation of many G20 leaders
because quantitative easing, as the policy is called, has the effect of
weakening the dollar. Officials from Brazil, China, Germany and Russia
suggest this is the Fed's true aim. Mr. Harper, in his first comments on
the controversy, dismissed those allegations, saying the Fed is simply
doing what it can to breath life into the U.S.'s sluggish recovery. “Under the circumstances, the quantitative easing policy is in the
short term the only option available for the Federal Reserve and I'm not
sure anyone else has provided any compelling argument as to what
alternative policy they would pursue, at least in the short term,” Mr.
Harper told reporters after a meeting with his Mexican counterpart. Leaders
assembled for a working dinner on Thursday deeply divided over currency
policy and how to spread trade and investment more evenly around the
globe. As controversial as U.S. monetary policy is China's resistance to
allowing the value of the yuan to appreciate faster even though the
country is running an outsized trade surplus. The non-elected officials
responsible for writing a draft communiqué for the presidents and prime
ministers were so far apart on that they couldn't even agree on what to
discuss when they met on Thursday, said Kim Yoon-kyung, a spokesman for
the summit's organizing committee. The acrimony over quantitative
easing, or QE, wasn't helped by Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of
the Federal Reserve, who wrote in the Financial Times that his country
is “pursuing a policy of currency weakening.” Mr. Greenspan was
more critical of China for running up more than $2-trillion in reserves
since 2000 containing the value of the yuan. But the suggestion that the
U.S. is actively trying to devalue its currency by the man once
referred to as “the oracle” stung. Mr. Greenspan's comment undermined
the Obama administration's contention that the Fed is simply trying to
boost economic growth. “We will never seek to weaken our currency as a
tool to gain competitive advantage and to grow the economy,” Treasury
Secretary Timothy Geithner told CNBC in response to Mr. Greenspan's
commentary. The Seoul Summit is the fifth gathering since leaders
of the G20 first gathered in Washington two years ago to fashion a
co-ordinated response to the financial crisis. But the unity the G20
showed in the face of calamity is now seriously strained. The rancour
over currencies risks spreading to other initiatives, including a
promise made in Pittsburgh last year to ensure taxpayers are never again
left on the hook to bail out banks that are “too big to fail.” The
global recession that was sparked by the crisis descended on the world
with remarkable speed, making it easier to settle on a response. Now,
emerging market countries such as China have completely recovered, while
advanced economies such as the United States are struggling with big
deficits and high unemployment rates.
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"Greenspan commenting about latest monetary policy actions.."
"America is also pursuing a policy of currency weakening.."
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Alan Greenspan is making waves today, suggesting in a guest column in
The Financial Times that the United States is chasing a weak-dollar
policy that’s roiling currency markets.
The former chairman of the Federal Reserve does not name the culprit
but, as the newspaper, critics of the U.S. central bank will probably
seize on his comments.
He also said that China should allow the yuan, also known as the
renminbi, to appreciate, and that by holding down its value the world
risks a return to protectionism.
“America is also pursuing a policy of currency weakening,” Mr. Greenspan
wrote. “The suppression of the renminbi and the recent weakening of the
dollar are, of necessity, producing firming exchange rates in the rest
of the world. Something has to give in this arena of zero-consolidated
current account balances.”
The Fed’s latest quantitative easing initiative, a $600-billion (U.S.)
plan to drive down longer-term interest rates by buying longer-term
Treasurys, has become a particular flashpoint in the run-up to the G20
summit that began today in Seoul. The U.S. dollar has generally weakened on what has become QE2.
In an interview with CNBC, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Mr. Greenspan is wrong.
“That’s not an accurate description of either the Fed’s policies or our
policies and again I don’t think it’s an accurate description of what’s
happening in markets today,” Mr. Geithner said.
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| Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY
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EUR: Euro recovery from yesterday's low at 1.3670 has been rejected at 1.3820
again and the pair, weighed under concerns about sovereign debt
troubles in some Eurozone countries, has dipped to 1.3700.
USD: With no relevant U.S. data...the main focus today will be the commentary from the G20 meeting. Will the meeting bring one consensus mandate for the world economy...or will this be another "neutral" stance towards recovery options.
Geithner and Obama...will have to answer the QE2 enquiries and will this spark more "currency war" debates?
The markets will be sensitive towards any positive or negative commentary from the meeting.
CAD: Harper's comments at the G20 meeting along with Carney have shown that Canada is supportive towards the Fed's decision of QE2. The question remains, will the other G7 or emerging countries side with the U.S. and Canada.
Expect the markets to become very choppy in trading volumes..the USD/CAD will trade from the higher 0.09000 levels to possibly higher 1.0000 levels. Once again, all dependant on investors reaction to G20 commentary.
GBP: The Pound recovery from 1.5950 area extended over the Asian session and the
Sterling reached 1.6185 resistance area again on European session where
sellers took over, sending the pair down to session lows right above
1.6100.
JPY: The Dollar rally from 80.50 low on Tuesday was capped yesterday below the
downtrend resistance line from May at 82.75, and the pair pulled back on
late US session to find support at 82.10 previous low, to trade
practically flat, between 82.10 and 82.35 during Asian and European
sessions so far.
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| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP
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USD/CAD
Support: 0.9976 Resistance: 1.0071
CAD/JPY
Support: 81.55 Resistance: 82.54
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.3625 Resistance: 1.3815
EUR/USD
Support: 1.3631 Resistance: 1.3820
GBP/USD
Support: 1.6057 Resistance: 1.6255
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| Main USD/CAD data today: |
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1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.
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