Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 135         www.taheriexchange.com   11th of November 2010
worldfx

" Harper 'supports QE2' at G20 summit .."

"the QE2 policy is in the short term the only option available... "


Prime Minister Stephen Harper came to the defense of Canada's biggest trading partner Thursday, challenging the many critics of the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to create $600-billion (U.S.) to buy financial assets to come up with something better.

Mr. Harper made the comment before the official start of the Group of 20 Summit in Seoul. The Fed's decision last week to resume purchasing securities in a bid to lower interest rates has become a preoccupation of many G20 leaders because quantitative easing, as the policy is called, has the effect of weakening the dollar. Officials from Brazil, China, Germany and Russia suggest this is the Fed's true aim. Mr. Harper, in his first comments on the controversy, dismissed those allegations, saying the Fed is simply doing what it can to breath life into the U.S.'s sluggish recovery.

“Under the circumstances, the quantitative easing policy is in the short term the only option available for the Federal Reserve and I'm not sure anyone else has provided any compelling argument as to what alternative policy they would pursue, at least in the short term,” Mr. Harper told reporters after a meeting with his Mexican counterpart.

Leaders assembled for a working dinner on Thursday deeply divided over currency policy and how to spread trade and investment more evenly around the globe. As controversial as U.S. monetary policy is China's resistance to allowing the value of the yuan to appreciate faster even though the country is running an outsized trade surplus. The non-elected officials responsible for writing a draft communiqué for the presidents and prime ministers were so far apart on that they couldn't even agree on what to discuss when they met on Thursday, said Kim Yoon-kyung, a spokesman for the summit's organizing committee.

The acrimony over quantitative easing, or QE, wasn't helped by Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, who wrote in the Financial Times that his country is “pursuing a policy of currency weakening.”

Mr. Greenspan was more critical of China for running up more than $2-trillion in reserves since 2000 containing the value of the yuan. But the suggestion that the U.S. is actively trying to devalue its currency by the man once referred to as “the oracle” stung. Mr. Greenspan's comment undermined the Obama administration's contention that the Fed is simply trying to boost economic growth. “We will never seek to weaken our currency as a tool to gain competitive advantage and to grow the economy,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told CNBC in response to Mr. Greenspan's commentary.

The Seoul Summit is the fifth gathering since leaders of the G20 first gathered in Washington two years ago to fashion a co-ordinated response to the financial crisis. But the unity the G20 showed in the face of calamity is now seriously strained. The rancour over currencies risks spreading to other initiatives, including a promise made in Pittsburgh last year to ensure taxpayers are never again left on the hook to bail out banks that are “too big to fail.”

The global recession that was sparked by the crisis descended on the world with remarkable speed, making it easier to settle on a response. Now, emerging market countries such as China have completely recovered, while advanced economies such as the United States are struggling with big deficits and high unemployment rates.


"Greenspan commenting about latest monetary policy actions.."

 "America is also pursuing a policy of currency weakening.."

bulls-bears

Alan Greenspan is making waves today, suggesting in a guest column in The Financial Times that the United States is chasing a weak-dollar policy that’s roiling currency markets.

The former chairman of the Federal Reserve does not name the culprit but, as the newspaper, critics of the U.S. central bank will probably seize on his comments.

He also said that China should allow the yuan, also known as the renminbi, to appreciate, and that by holding down its value the world risks a return to protectionism.

“America is also pursuing a policy of currency weakening,” Mr. Greenspan wrote. “The suppression of the renminbi and the recent weakening of the dollar are, of necessity, producing firming exchange rates in the rest of the world. Something has to give in this arena of zero-consolidated current account balances.”

The Fed’s latest quantitative easing initiative, a $600-billion (U.S.) plan to drive down longer-term interest rates by buying longer-term Treasurys, has become a particular flashpoint in the run-up to the G20 summit that began today in Seoul. The U.S. dollar has generally weakened on what has become QE2.

In an interview with CNBC, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Mr. Greenspan is wrong.

“That’s not an accurate description of either the Fed’s policies or our policies and again I don’t think it’s an accurate description of what’s happening in markets today,” Mr. Geithner said.


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  Euro recovery from yesterday's low at 1.3670 has been rejected at 1.3820 again and the pair, weighed under concerns about sovereign debt troubles in some Eurozone countries, has dipped to 1.3700.


USD: 
With no relevant U.S. data...the main focus today will be the commentary from the G20 meeting. Will the meeting bring one consensus mandate for the world economy...or will this be another "neutral" stance towards recovery options.

Geithner and Obama...will have to answer the QE2 enquiries and will this spark more "currency war" debates?

The markets will be sensitive towards any positive or negative commentary from the meeting.

CAD:  Harper's comments at the G20 meeting along with Carney have shown that Canada is supportive towards the Fed's decision of QE2. The question remains, will the other G7 or emerging countries side with the U.S. and Canada.

Expect the markets to become very choppy in trading volumes..the USD/CAD will trade from the higher  0.09000 levels to possibly higher 1.0000 levels. Once again, all dependant on investors reaction to G20 commentary.

GBP:  The Pound recovery from 1.5950 area extended over the Asian session and the Sterling reached 1.6185 resistance area again on European session where sellers took over, sending the pair down to session lows right above 1.6100.

JPY:
  The Dollar rally from 80.50 low on Tuesday was capped yesterday below the downtrend resistance line from May at 82.75, and the pair pulled back on late US session to find support at 82.10 previous low, to trade practically flat, between 82.10 and 82.35 during Asian and European sessions so far.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  0.9976   Resistance: 1.0071

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.55   Resistance:  82.54

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3625  Resistance: 1.3815

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3631  Resistance: 1.3820

GBP/USD

Support:  1.6057  Resistance: 1.6255

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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