Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 177         www.taheriexchange.com   12th of January 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9781        Resistance: 0.9910

CAD/JPY

Support:  84.04        Resistance:  85.22

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.2718     Resistance:  1.2935

EUR/USD

Support:  1.2961     Resistance:  1.3136

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5612     Resistance:  1.5746

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:   Euro retreat from 1.3045 session high ahead of the Portuguese bond auction, has found support above the 100-Hour SMA, at 1.2960, and the pair has bounced up strongly afterwards, regaining 1.3000, to test day high at 1.3045.


USD:   Optimism in the markets continue to weaken the USD. Awaiting report from the Fed via the Beige Book and their assessment of the U.S. economy..commentary due after 2pm today.

CAD:   Commodity and equity markets performing well..giving further strength to all commodity based currencies. The CAD is continuing it's strength..and we have broken the 0.9864 support level...we may see today levels last reached back in May 2008.

Great day for buying USD.


Today's range....possibly higher 0.9700  to lower 0.9900 levels.


GBP:   Pound's retreat from 1.5680 high on early European session has been contained at the previous downtrend resistance line, at 1.5585, and the pair has bounced up, to pare losses returning to 1.5660 resistance area.



JPY:    Dollar retreat from yesterday's high at 89.50 has found support at 83.00 on early European session to bounce up, as the Dollar jumps against Euro and Pound, returning to levels close to 83.40 day high.


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worldfx

" Portugal passes market test  "....

" Portugal is in the process of giving results that are better than what they said they would do and that will reassure investors ".....

 


In a crucial test of its ability to roll over its burgeoning debt load, Portugal managed to sell 10-year bonds on Wednesday at a yield that came in somewhat lower than expected.

Portugal sold €599-million of bonds, due in 2020, at a yield of 6.716 per cent. That’s very slightly lower than the yield of a similar auction, in November, and somewhat lower than the yields on it existing 10-year bonds, which have closed above 7 per cent in recent days. The purchase of Portuguese bonds by the European Central Bank in recent days probably helped to drop the yields.

Still, economists consider yields approaching 7 per cent on long-term debt as unsustainable. The Lisbon government itself has admitted that yields that high could prove fatal to its financial health has implemented one of the euro zone’s most aggressive austerity programs to bring its budget deficit under control.

Portugal also sold €650-million of bonds, due in 2012, at a yield of 5.396 per cent, up substantially from the 4.041 per cent demanded by investors in October.

In spite of the successful long-bond sale, analysts and economists still expect Portugal to seek a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, the sponsors of last year’s bailouts of the Greek and Irish economies. Economists at the Italian bank UniCredit have estimated that Portugal’s bailout costs would come to about €60-billion, the amount required to cover bond redemptions, fund budget deficits and stabilize the country’s shaky banking sector for the next three years.

The collective cost of the Greek and Irish bailouts is estimated at almost €200-billion.

In spite of the high price paid by Portugal to unload the new 10-year bonds, politicians urged investors not to write off the Portuguese economy, which has barely grown in the last decade, or its ability to repay its debts.

“Portugal is in the process of giving results that are better than what they said they would do and that will reassure investors,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Wednesday on French TV. “I hope they will stick to their commitments and more, and under these conditions investors will look kindly on Portuguese debt.”

Portugal is cutting government employment and social services and reducing civil servant wages by 5 per cent this year. It is also raising the value-added tax (VAT) by 2 percentage points, to a hefty 23 per cent. The government’s budget deficit target for 2011 is 4.6 per cent of gross domestic product, and 3 per cent 2012.

While the yield on the new Portuguese bonds came in lower than expected, the country will still struggle to sell bonds.. It must raise about €20-billion this year to fund its deficit and roll over its debt. The effort will be all the more difficult if, as expected, the austerity programs push Portugal back into recession. The economy grew slightly last year. The European Commission now expects it to contract by about 1 per cent in 2011.

On Thursday, Spain and Italy are due to sell up to €9-billion of debt between them. Economists consider those two sales a bigger test of the euro zone’s weakest economies to fund themselves.


" Geithner would like the Yuan to rise.."..

"China still closely manages the level of it's exchange rate and restricts the ability of capital to move in and out of the country".....

bulls-bears 

China’s yuan currency remains ”substantially undervalued” and it is in Beijing’s own interest to let it appreciate more rapidly to ward off inflation risks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday.

In a speech ahead of Chinese president Hu Jintao’s state visit to Washington next week, Mr. Geithner held out the prospect of more cooperation on China’s bid for high-tech goods if Beijing was willing to let its currency rise in value more swiftly.

“China still closely manages the level of its exchange rate and restricts the ability of capital to move in and out of the country,” Mr. Geithner told an audience at Johns Hopkins University. “These policies have the effect of keeping the Chinese currency substantially undervalued.”

The U.S. Treasury chief appeared to offer a carrot-and-stick approach to the bid to persuade Beijing to let its currency appreciate, which U.S. companies say is necessary to reduce a competitive advantage that Chinese exporters now have.

Mr. Geithner noted that China wants more access to U.S. high-technology goods and to invest more in the United States.

“We are willing to make progress on these issues, but our ability to move on these issues will depend of course on how much progress we see from China,” he said.




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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Monthly budget statement & Beige Book data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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