Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 113         www.taheriexchange.com   12th of October 2010
worldfx

"World markets prepare for today's FOMC minutes commentary "..

"The minutes will be important in setting the scene "


World stocks and commodity prices fell on Tuesday before Federal Reserve minutes that should give clues on the timing and size of more U.S. stimulus, while the dollar hovered near a 15-year low against the yen.

The Fed’s comments at its Sep. 21 meeting that it stood ready to provide more support for the economy have boosted stock markets worldwide and commodity prices, especially gold which is seen as hedge against long-term inflation, on expectations of another round of money printing.

The dollar was sold sharply as market players factored in the prospect of more quantitative easing, though the U.S. currency remains weak against the yen, which tends to benefit from global growth concerns.

However, pending details of the Fed’s last meeting from the minutes, expectations in some quarters are now being pared back, particularly after Janet Yellen said in her first speech as vice chair of the Fed late on Monday that low interest rates could contribute to financial bubbles even if they were not a primary culprit.

“The market is moving to pare back expectations of QE by the Fed,” said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

“The Fed minutes will be crucial as we could learn more about the size of potential asset purchases.”

A Reuters poll of U.S. primary dealers conducted last week forecast the size of the new round quantitative easing at between US$500-billion and US$1.5-trillion.

World stocks measured by MSCI All-Country World Index fell 0.7%, though the Thomson Reuters global equity index was flat.

U.S. stock index futures dropped 0.7 to 0.8%, indicating a weaker start for Wall Street, while Europe’s FTSEurofirst 300 eased 0.8%.

Japan’s Nikkei average fell 2.1%, dragged lower by a climb in the yen to 15-year highs against the dollar, with investors nervous to see whether authorities will intervene in the currency markets.

The dollar eased 0.1% to 82.04 yen, though the greenback was up 0.4% against a basket of currencies.

The euro was down 0.4% at US$1.38.19.

Countries from Latin America to Asia have complained that the Fed’s push toward renewed monetary easing is strengthening their currencies unduly against the dollar, hurting their competitiveness.

Gold lost 0.6% after last week hitting a record high of US$1,364.60 per ounce, and copper slipped 0.2%, while oil fell 1 percent.

“The minutes will be important in setting the scene. We’ll see whether the tone is about downside risk,” said Bill Dinning, head of strategy at Aegon Asset Management in Edinburgh. “But three weeks (the time until the next Fed meeting) in these markets is an eternity. And clearly there is a debate going on.”




"Finance minister Flaherty releasing government's fall fiscal update.."

 "The budget will be balanced by 2014-2015"

bulls-bears

Finance minister Jim Flaherty will release the government’s fall fiscal update Tuesday in Mississauga, laying out Ottawa’s expectations for government revenue during a recovery that’s proving to be slower than predicted.

A government source said the minister will commit to balancing the budget in the “medium” term. Mr. Flaherty recently said publicly that the budget would be balanced by 2014-2015, “or so.”

The source also confirmed that the update will not include any policy announcements. Occasionally governments have used fall updates as a form of “mini-budget,” but this one will be a more traditional update of projections for revenues and expenses.

This will be the first long-term fiscal forecast since Mr. Flaherty announced that he would not be raising Employment Insurance premiums as fast as originally accounted for in the March, 2010, budget. The measure is expected to cost Ottawa more than $1-billion in revenues next year.

Mr. Flaherty will release the update as part of an address to the Mississauga Chinese Business Association at the Mississauga Convention Centre.

The government’s revenue projections are based on input from more than a dozen private-sector economists, whom Mr. Flaherty met with privately last week. Several of the economists later said the projections for economic growth varied widely inside the room, leading some to urge the minister to err on the side of more pessimistic forecasts.


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro is going through profit taking after a 1,3000 pips rally in the previous four weeks, and after failure at 1.4000, the pair has dropped more than 200 pips during the current week so far, hitting levels below 1.3800, to find support at 1.3775.


USD: 
Markets awaiting FOMC commentary after 2pm today...the USD/CAD has continued it's bearish trend and remaining in the lower 1.0100 levels currently.

The trend for the pair will depend on the commentary later today...and will parity be reached this week?


CAD:  The CAD has been performing well the past 2 weeks. Will this bearish trend continue??

Expectation today is dependant on investor's reaction to the Fed's stimulus package..we may see the USD/CAD in the higher 1.000 to possibly reaching 1.0200.

GBP:  The Pound's retreat from Monday's high at 1.5965/70 area extended lower after the release of UK CPI figures, with the pair plunging about 60 pips to a fresh 8-day low at 1.5800 where the Sterling found buyers to support a mild recovery to 1.5840 area.

JPY:
  The Dollar decline from post intervention high at 85.95 extended on Friday below 82.00, and the pair hit a fresh 25-year low at 82.35, to consolidate afterwards at in a range around 82.00.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0077   Resistance: 1.0210

CAD/JPY

Support:  80.06   Resistance:  81.32

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3951  Resistance: 1.4117

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3734  Resistance: 1.3935

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5783  Resistance: 1.5889

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- FOMC meeting minutes data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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