Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 136         www.taheriexchange.com   12th of November 2010
worldfx

" Harper admits G20 meeting fell short of solid objectives .."

"These are not going to be easy issues to resolve... "


Leaders from the Group of 20 have failed to reach an accord on settling their disagreements over exchange rates and global trade imbalances.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who attended the two-day summit and had been hoping for progress in those areas, acknowledged at the end of the meetings on Friday that he and his fellow leaders had fallen short.

But he said the major industrialized and developing nations who form the G20 have recognized that these are “tough” issues that cannot be ignored.

“I think it’s fair to say we did not resolve those issues here,” Mr. Harper told reporters at a news conference.

But he said the G20 has set up a process for continued talks with a “timeline” to make progress.

“These are not going to be easy issues to resolve. But I think we’ve got everyone talking the same language, everyone understanding longer term what has to be done. For some countries the adjustment here will not be easy. But as I said, I think we’re at least keeping things on a path.”

The political leaders came here with the desire to make advances from the last summit in Toronto, where they set out a long-term goal of sustaining the global economic recovery.

Significant achievements evaded them on the two most contentious issues on their agenda in Seoul: Exchange rates and trade imbalances.

For months, G20 leaders have complained about China’s refusal to allow a more flexible exchange rate of its currency, which many believe is a deliberate practice to devalue the currency and make Chinese exports cheaper to buy. China’s trading partners says this is an unfair practice which distorts global trade.

In their communique, all the leaders could agree upon was some diplomatically cautious wording that doesn’t force any of the member nations to adopt specific changes in policy.

“We will move toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and enhance exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying economic fundamentals and retrain from competitive devaluation of currencies,” said the leaders in their closing declaration.

But that is barely a start for the G20 nations that want a specific commitment from China that its currency will not be devalued.

U.S. President Barack Obama said the Chinese policy on devaluing its yuan is an irritant to many of its trading partners, not just the U.S.

“China has the opportunity to be a responsible partner,” said Mr. Obama.

The other point of contention at the summit involved the wide trading imbalance between major nations.

At the heart of this issue is the “current-account balance,” which describes a country’s net trade in goods and services.

Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. have current-account deficits while major exporters, such as China, Germany and Japan, have surpluses. The U.S. proposed that by 2015, countries should limit their current-account balances — whether surplus or deficit — to no more than four per cent of GDP.

That would force countries like China and Germany to rely less on exports and focus on their domestic markets.

The U.S proposal for targets — which is backed by Canada — didn’t get much support at the G20.

Nonetheless, Mr. Harper said it’s still an issue that the leaders need to grapple with.

“I don’t think there’s anything here that speaks to collapse in the global economy or an immediate problem,” said the prime minister about the lack of a deal on the key issues this week.

“But to really realize the maximum potential of the global economy going forward, we do have to get an agreement on this framework, and on resolution of the global imbalance question. These things did not happen overnight. They’re not going to be fixed overnight. And they do involve some significant structural adjustment for some countries.”

At the end of the G20 summit, Mr. Harper was scheduled to travel to Yokohama, Japan to attend the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) meeting over the weekend.


 

"Global stocks are 'jittery' from negative news relating to Ireland, China and the G20 meeting.."

 "Investors have little appetite for risk so far today.."

bulls-bears

Global stock markets are in a generally foul mood this morning as fears over Ireland’s debt troubles and speculation of interest rate hikes in China outweigh the events in Seoul.

Currencies are choppy and stocks are generally lower - Chinese equities plunged and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbled 1.9 per cent - though European markets have calmed down somewhat. “Markets are weaker across the board, weighed down by a wide range of concerns and with the G20 summit wrapping up with little to show (not surprisingly),” said BMO Nesbitt Burns deputy chief economist Douglas Porter.

“... Investors have little appetite for risk so far today, with S&P futures currently down 0.6 per cent, China’s stocks plunging more than 6 per cent, the Canadian dollar peeling back to around 99 cents ($1.010/US$), and oil and gold prices retreating heavily.

While the EU tried to calm markets today on the Irish fears, angst remains.

"Concerns about the abilities of a number of peripheral European economies in paying down their debt has contributed to a general unease amongst investors and seen Irish 10-year bond yields hit over 9 per cent," said Mr. Hewson.

"These fears have not only manifested themselves in countries like Portugal, and Spain where Q3 GDP growth actually stalled, but also to Italy where the difference between German and Italian bond yields increased beyond the levels seen in May at the height of the Greek crisis, above 1.8 per cent.


.Want to manage currency risk and increase revenue? Learn more about

Risk Management

 

Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY


EUR:  The Euro has bounced up on European session supported by a successful Italian debt auction and recovery from 1.3575 day low extended to session high at 1.3740, where the pair hit resistance before pulling back below 1.3700


USD: 
After 2 days of discussion at the G20 meeting, once again...no main goal has been achieved. Investors will continue to move the markets based on their own assumptions...that the "uncertainty theme" will continue for rest of 2010 and beyond.

Earlier, the USD/CAD had been in the mid 1.0100 levels..but since has descended. Will the bullish trend continue as "risk aversion" takes it's course for the day..or will the markets cool and reverse this trend?

CAD:  Harper and his global colleagues agreed that they couldn't accomplish the "main issues". Overall, not very positive news for the CAD...commodities have fallen...will this morning's equity market continue on a downfall? 

Today expect further choppy trading...the USD/CAD will range from the possibly mid 1.0100 to lower 1.0000 levels.

GBP:  The Pound has taken back during the European session all the ground lost on Asian trade, and recovery from 1.5985 low has regained 1.6100 to reach 1.6135 day high which is being tested ahead of US session opening.  

JPY:  Dollar retreat from 82.60 high yesterday extended on Asian session, with the Yen surging across the board, to 81.65 session low, and the pair has trimmed losses on European session, reaching 82.30.

Want to lock in an exchange rate for the future? Learn more about

Forward Contracts

Follow our "tweets" and get up-to-date currency movements daily on Twitter @ http://twitter.com/taheriexchange
 
Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.0012   Resistance: 1.0130

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.28   Resistance:  82.17

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3750  Resistance: 1.3888

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3702  Resistance: 1.3835

GBP/USD

Support:  1.6082  Resistance: 1.6207

Want us to monitor the market 24 hours for your target rate? Learn   more about

Overnight Orders

This email contains confidential information, is intended only for the named recipient and is privileged. Distributing or copying this email without express consent of Taheri Exchange (TE) is prohibited. If you are not the named recipient, notify us immediately and permanently destroy this email and all copies. Email is not private, secure, or reliable. TE is not liable for any errors or omissions in the content or transmission of this email. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding TE. TE makes efforts to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate. TE has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein. TE shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user). The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. TE, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any products.

unscribe/subscribe to: rick@taheriexchange.com

                                               5775 Yonge Street
                                              Toronto, ON Canada
                                                        M2M 4J1
                                                  T: 416-488-8822
                                                  F: 416-488-4022
                                                T: 1-888-712-999
Forward Contracts

Risk Management

Overnight Orders

Contact Us

Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.

handshake
Customized Service.
Taheri understands your business, and can tailor foreign exchange services that satisfy your unique needs
View our archived FX reports
http://www.taheriexchange.com/news

Share this