Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 114         www.taheriexchange.com   13th of October 2010
worldfx

"Geithner sees 'no global currency war' "..

"No risk of that... "


Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday he sees "no risk" of a global currency war and wants to maximize incentives for China to allow its yuan to rise in value.

He told the Charlie Rose Show in an interview that China would work against its basic development objectives if it kept its currency undervalued.

"I'm very confident over time that this is going to happen," he said of Chinese currency appreciation. "We just want to make sure it's happening at a gradual but still significant rate."

Asked to respond to talk and media reports of a "currency war," with multiple countries taking action to stem the rise in their currencies, Mr. Geithner said, "No risk of that."

Asked to explain, the Treasury chief said that many other emerging markets were seeing major capital flows.

"And that's unfair to them because what's happening is, as China holds its currency down, their currencies are moving up," Mr. Geithner said. "And they're having to work very hard to make sure they're not at an unfair disadvantage with China. And that's why this issue, which people like to frame as uniquely an American preoccupation, is really much more important to the rest of the world and is really a global problem as a whole."

Mr. Geithner did not mention a Treasury report due on Friday on whether China or any other country manipulates its currency. He has said recently that declaring China a manipulator at this time would be not be productive because it would require consultations with Beijing that were already underway.

Turning to a domestic scandal involving allegations that some mortgage lenders used shoddy paperwork to justify thousands of home foreclosures, Mr. Geithner said that declaring a national foreclosure moratorium would be "very damaging" because it would halt the recovery process for many neighborhoods hard-hit by the housing collapse.

Some Democratic U.S. lawmakers, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who faces a tough re-election battle in Nevada, have called for the largest lenders to halt foreclosures in all 50 states.

Mr. Geithner said this would have unintended consequences by delaying the sales of homes with failed mortgages and foreclosures that are justified.

"What it means is those communities will be living longer with houses unoccupied, with more pressure on their house prices for the people still in their houses," he said.




"CAD- New Housing Price Index increased in August.."

 "Areas that increased were Toronto, Hamilton, Oshawa & Montreal"

bulls-bears

The New Housing Price Index increased 0.1 per cent in August after a 0.1-per-cent decrease in July.

Statistics Canada reports the top contributors to the monthly increase were Toronto, Hamilton and Oshawa, Ont., along with Montreal.

Prices increased the most in Hamilton (up 0.9 per cent), followed by Windsor, Ont., and Winnipeg (both up 0.4).

Statscan attributed Hamilton's increase in part to builders moving to new areas with higher land development fees, while Winnipeg prices rose due to higher lumber and steel costs and in Windsor some builders reported higher operating costs.

Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton, N.B., along with Ottawa–Gatineau, Calgary and Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay, Ont., all recorded decreases of 0.1 per cent.

Prices were unchanged in 10 of 21 metropolitan areas in August.

Year over year, the index was up 2.9 per cent in August.



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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro has been going through a strong recovery during Asian and early European sessions, and after bouncing from from 1.3775 low yesterday, the pair regained previous loses to reach 1.4000 on early European session, where the Euro has stalled.


USD: 
Yesterday's Fed commentary provided more positive sentiment for investors..both stock and commodity markets were on an uptrend.

Looking at the USD/CAD..the pair has continued it's bearish trend..and parity may possibly be seen this week..if this positive sentiment continues this week.


CAD:  The CAD along with other commodity based currencies have outperformed the USD the past 2 weeks.

If this trend continues we may reach April 2010 lows of parity.

Expected range today for the USD/CAD....higher .9900 to higher 1.000 levels.

GBP:  The Pounds' retreat from 1.5965 high on Monday, found support yesterday at 1.5755, and the pair bounced up on Asian session, reaching 1.5880 were the Sterling faltered as claimant count figures rose beyond expectations, and the pair eased t0 1.5850 area.

JPY:
  The Dollar decline from 85.95 high on mid September extended on early Monday to a fresh 15-year low at 81.35, and the pair has been consolidating since within a 80 pip range around 82.00, amid rumours of intervention by the BoJ.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 0.9968   Resistance: 1.0097

CAD/JPY

Support:  80.88   Resistance:  81.97

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3868  Resistance: 1.4038

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3844  Resistance: 1.4021

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5752  Resistance: 1.5889

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Monthly budget statement data.
CAD - New Housing Price Index data.

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