Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 94         www.taheriexchange.com   13th of September 2010
worldfx

"Stock markets performing well on the first day of this week"..

"Risks of double dip recession straight away are clearly low.."


World stocks surged on Monday and Wall Street looked set to join in, driven by robust economic news from China and relief that new global bank rules would not mean a rush to raise billions of dollars in extra capital.

The European Commission also sharply upgraded its forecasts for euro zone and broader European growth.

Taken together, the news assuaged some of the most trenchant concerns among investors at the moment — those of stuttering economic growth and over the health of the global financial sector.

World stocks as measured by both MSCI and Thomson Reuters were up 0.8%. The MSCI emerging market benchmark was up 1.5% at a 4-1/2 month high.

In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 gained 0.9% and Japan's Nikkei closed up the same.

"Risks of double dip (recession) straight away are clearly low. People have probably got over-worried in August that the end of the world is nigh," said Michael Dicks, head of research and investment strategy at Barclay's Wealth.

But he added: "That does not mean policymakers are not still going to have problems."

Asia emerging market growth has been a major fillip to the rest of the world this year, making up for a somewhat moribund U.S. economic performance. Numbers on Saturday showed China factories increased production in August and money growth easily topped analysts' expectations.

That was part of a mixed, but generally growth-positive message showing the economy remained buoyant despite Beijing's efforts to clamp down on bank lending and property speculation.

Global policymakers on Sunday also eased fears that lenders would have to raise capital over the next year or so, agreeing a long lead in to new requirements, known as Basel III, that require banks to hold top-quality capital totaling 7% of their risk-bearing assets.

That lifted banking shares across the board and looked set to start Wall Street off in positive territory.

The European Commission, meanwhile, almost doubled its forecast for this year's euro zone growth, adding to a chunk of data signs in the past month which have shown the European upturn may be stronger and more resilient than earlier expected.

In its twice-yearly interim economic forecasts for the 16 countries using the single currency, it said it expected the group to grow 1.7 percent this year, up from 0.9% forecast in May and a 4.1% contraction in 2009.

DOLLAR DOWN

Despite all the nerves around the U.S. recovery, economists are still forecasting it will grow faster than Europe, which is set to struggle with the impact of budget cuts required to head off worries over rising public debt across the bloc.

But the dollar has generally suffered as hopes for growth globally improve, and it also suffered as the EU forecasts improved views on the euro's prospects.

The single currency rose one percent against the dollar to $1.2802. It also rose 0.9 percent against the low-yielding yen to 107.63 yen.

"Better risk appetite is putting the dollar under pressure and the euro and currencies like the Australian dollar have been holding up very well," said Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen.

The dollar was half a percent lower against a basket of major currencies .DXY. The currency tends to get hit when investors buy riskier and therefore higher-yielding assets.

Euro zone government bond yields rose, reflecting lowered prices, for the same reason.




"Canadians financial stressed based by CPA report.."

 "Canadians continuing to live paycheque to paycheque.."

bulls-bears

 

Canada might have lifted itself out of the recession late last year, but the majority of Canadians continue to find themselves in a financially precarious situation.

That is according to a new survey from the Canadian Payroll Association, which polled Canadians on topics including savings, debt and their economic outlook. The survey found that the majority of Canadians — 59% — said they would face financial difficulty if their paycheque was delayed by even just one week.

“The most significant result of Canadians continuing to live paycheque to paycheque is its impact on their concerns about personal finances and retirement,” said Cindy Forget, Chairman of the CPA, in a statement. “The results also underscore why it is vital for organizations to ensure employees are paid on time.”

Living paycheque to paycheque was most prevalent amongst young people, with 65% of those aged 18-34 responding they would find it difficult to meet financial obligations if they missed even one paycheque.

Proper savings habits also continue to elude many Canadians.

About 47% of respondents in the survey said they were saving 5% or less of their net pay, a worrying figure considering financial experts often recommend saving about 10% of net pay for retirement, the CPA said.

One positive statistic that emerged from the survey however was that the number of big savers was up this year. The amount of Canadians saving 16% or more of their paycheques increased by 5% in 2010, compared with last year.

What is down this year is optimism about the broader economy. Fifty-nine per cent of Canadians in the survey said they feel their city or town’s economy will improve in the next year, down from 67% in 2009. Confidence was lowest in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.

“We’re surprised by the drop in optimism because last year’s survey was in the middle of the recession,” said CPA president Patrick Culhane.

When ranked by order of importance, the main concern Canadians had was rising interest rates, the survey found, followed by being unable to save enough for retirement and inflation.

The overwhelming majority of those surveyed expected inflation to impact their cost of living, with 83% believing their cost of living will increase in the next 12 months. Meanwhile, only 62% of respondents indicated that they are likely to get a wage increase during the same period.





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world currency


EUR:  The Euro pullback from session high at 1.2835 has been contained at 1.2790 area during the European morning, and the Euro is building up upside momentum again, moments ahead of Wall Street opening bell, trading at fresh session high 1.2845.

USD:  Equity markets on a positive buzz, sentiment in the markets are good...apparently...the trend on the USD has been bearish. Not much movement since Friday, still hovering in the higher 1.0200 level. Will the bearish trend continue today or will tomorrow's USD- Retail sales reverse the trend?

CAD:  An improved risk appetite is favoring the commodity-linked Canadian dollar Monday, causing the USD/CAD to drop under the 1.0300 barrier in recent trading. Expect today's range in the possible lower 1.0200 to mid 1.0300 levels.

GBP:  The Pound surged aggressively during Asian session to hit resistance at 1.5480 and retreat during European session to 1.5390 where the Sterling found support to pick up reaching 1.5430 ahead of the US session opening.

JPY:  The Dollar weakened during Asian session and rejection from 84.45 extended to 83.85 low ahead of the European session, where the Greenback found support to return to 84.00 area on early European session.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0202   Resistance: 1.0354

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.05   Resistance:  82.37  

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3110  Resistance: 1.3240

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.2735  Resistance: 1.2916

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5352  Resistance: 1.5530

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Monthly Budget Statement data.
CAD -  No relevant data.

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