Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 95         www.taheriexchange.com   14th of September 2010
worldfx

"Canadian banks state they are capable of handling new Basel III rules"..

"The Basel rules always were the floor.."


 

Canadian banks rank among the most solvent in the world when it comes to capital levels. Now, with the world’s banks moving Canada’s way in terms of the amount of money lenders need to set aside for capital adequacy, regulators will need to decide whether they’ll want to get ahead of the competition by adopting even tougher standards.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who regularly extols the virtues of Canada’s banking system as the world’s soundest, said Monday that he doesn’t have plans to prod lenders into having more capital than required under the new rules laid out in Basel, Switzerland, over the weekend, which won’t be fully in place until 2019.

“We’re comfortable with the progress that has been made” at Basel, Mr. Flaherty said.

But speaking to reporters at a news conference in Toronto on the opening of an institute that will study banking system risk, Mr. Flaherty said the government would impose additional regulations on mortgage lending if it believed financial institutions or large numbers of borrowers were taking imprudent risks.

“Canadians ought to be mindful, including on their residential mortgages, about how much risk they’re taking because interests rates over time inevitably are going to go up,” he predicted.

The international rules handed down from the governing body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision seek to address that sort of systemic risk by imposing capital levels that are already in line with those that Canadian banks have had under their regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

Domestic banks, therefore, will have no trouble meeting the new global standards for how much money a financial institution needs to stash away as a rainy day fund.

Bankers are taking the new rules in stride.

Bank of Montreal’s chief risk officer, Tom Flynn, speaking at a conference in New York, said “BMO is well-positioned on both an absolute and relative basis to adopt the new rules.”

Janice Fukakusa, chief financial officer at Royal Bank of Canada, was also speaking in New York and said that “based on our first read, we’re encouraged by the announcement and feel very comfortable in meeting these standards within the established timelines, given where our capital ratios stand today.”

At Toronto-Dominion Bank, chief financial officer Colleen Johnston said: “We’re aware of the proposed new rules and we’re pleased to see progress made on this front. Increased clarity around capital rules will be good for all banks and for the overall economy.”

The question on many investors’ minds now is whether Canada needs to press home its advantage by further tightening the rules to ensure that even stronger balance sheets become the new normal here.

“The Basel rules always were the floor,” observed Desjardins Securities bank analyst Michael Goldberg.

The banks themselves, Mr. Goldberg said, may even want the extra cushion, and even lard on more capital, above and beyond anything new the OSFI imposes. Bankers, he says, never want to “get a phone call from the OSFI saying ‘We’re concerned.’ ”

Mr. Goldberg, writing to clients Monday, said the new rules “present no problems” for banks. He estimated domestic lenders have tangible common equity, or the amount of rainy-day money shareholders have to handle loan losses, ranging from about 8.5 per cent to 10.4 per cent of assets, more than double the minimums the Basel rules will require in 2013.

In the short term, Mr. Goldberg said he believes the rules will mean “a likely pick-up in acquisition activity or share buybacks by Canadian banks.”

He flagged Royal Bank, TD and Bank of Nova Scotia as the financials most likely to focus on acquisitions, while he tapped Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce as the bank most likely to be focused on share buybacks. National Bank of Canada, he said, is likely to do both.

Brian Klock, analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods, said he expects big Canadian banks, such as RBC and TD, to begin increasing dividends after their first-quarter 2011 earnings reports in February, in response to the clarity on the new capital rules.

With the capital question settled, the debate over acquisitions by Canadian banks has resumed.

Mr. Klock said TD “may not be out doing more deals until later in 2011” as it digests recent U.S. acquisitions.

There is frequently speculation that TD may take a run at E-Trade Financial, to add to its U.S. discount brokerage operation. Bank of Nova Scotia might be interested bidding for the rest of 37-per-cent-owned CI Financial.

Analysts are divided about what RBC might do. The bank is active in the U.S. Southeast, but doesn’t have the size to be a major competitive force in the region. But Mr. Klock believes it will first try to expand its wealth management business in Europe rather than go after a regional U.S. bank.


 

"USD- Retail Sales data improves in August.."

 "CAD- Productivity falls in the 2Q.."

bulls-bears

Sales at U.S. retailers increased more than expected in August, notching their largest gain in five months on strong receipts at gasoline stations and clothing outlets, according to a government report that further assuaged fears of a double-dip recession.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales rose 0.4% following a revised 0.3% rise in July. It was the second straight month of gains in retail sales, which are a measure of consumer health. July sales had been previously reported to have increased 0.4%.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.3% last month. Compared to August last year, sales were 3.6% higher.

Data so far for August, including private payrolls and manufacturing, have pointed to a tentative improvement in the economy after a recent soft patch.

The recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s has cooled off as the boost from a US$814-billion government stimulus package fades and unemployment remains stubbornly high.

Last month, motor vehicle and parts purchases fell 0.7% after increasing 1.0% in July. Excluding autos, sales increased by a bigger-than-expected 0.6% in August, also the largest increase since March, after a 0.1% gain the prior month. Markets had expected sales excluding autos to increase 0.3% in August.

Receipts at gasoline stations increased 1.9% after rising 2.2% in July. Building materials and garden equipment sales were unchanged after falling 0.4% in July, suggesting some stability after sharp declines following the end in April of a popular homebuyer tax credit.

Clothing and clothing accessories sales increased 1.2%.

Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline and building materials, rose 0.5% after dipping 0.1% in July. Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government's gross domestic product report.

Receipts at sporting goods, hobby and book stores rebounded 0.9% last month. Purchases at electronics and appliance stores fell 1.1 %.

“With unemployment likely to stay high, households will take time to start spending more freely,” Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc., a consulting firm in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. “Mid-2011 is when consumers may feel a little more comfortable about the economy and about their savings.”

“Like many retailers, we will continue to look cautiously at the second half of 2010,” Chief Executive Officer Trudy Sullivan said on a conference call on Sept. 8. “The economic recovery has certainly experienced stalls and starts in the last several months and there is no indication that volatility is over.”

“Even though the economy is growing again,” President Barack Obama said at the White House on Sept. 10, “the hole the recession left was huge and progress has been painfully slow.”

 

 

Productivity by Canadian businesses fell more than expected in the second quarter of this year, as output declined and work hours rose, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday.

Productivity was down 0.8% between April and June, following a 0.5% in the first quarter and a 1.2% increase in the prior three-month period, the federal agency said.

Economists had expected labour output to fall 0.5% in second quarter.

“The largest contributor to the overall decline in business productivity was services-producing businesses, which saw their productivity fall one per cent, following five consecutive positive quarters,”the agency said. “The downturn was widespread, with retail trade (down 2.3%) registering the largest decrease.”



 


Want to manage currency risk and increase revenue? Learn more about

Risk Management
 

Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

world currency
EUR: Euro rally from Friday's low at 1.2645 has peaked at 1.2910 high, and the pair has retreated, breaking to session low levels below 1.2845, after the release of German ZEW survey, which has casted shadow over the economic expectations for the Eurozone largest economy.

USD:  The Dollar has fallen for the second day...yet it still remains in the mid to lower 1.0200 levels on the USD/CAD. If we continually see positive U.S. data...will the lower 1.0100 levels be the new low since early August 2010.

CAD:  Once again, equity and commodity markets performing well after positive U.S. retail sales data. CAD has benefited..yet..the USD/CAD has not broken further into the lower 1.0200 levels. Today's range we could see the higher 1.0200 levels to higher 1.0100 levels...if the equity markets continue on it's bullish trend.

GBP:
  The Pound surged aggressively during Asian session to Pound's rejection from 1.5490 high yesterday, extended lower on early European session, and the pair broke below 1.5375 low, to test 1.5345 support zone, and bounce up afterwards returning to levels above 1.5400 and hitting session high at 1.5445.


JPY:  The Dollar Yen has suffered selling pressure, on Japanese ruling party's election for its new leader, and the pair dropped lower, breaking below 83.30 to hit a fresh 15-year low at 83.07 when Naoto Kan was confirmed.

Naoto Kan has been confirmed as Japan's prime minister in an election were he outlasted rival Ichiro Ozawa. Even as Prime Minister Kan has not been able to find solutions to the long-term economic stagnation Japan faces, and despite Ozawa's bold claims, the voters supported PM Kan.

Forex investors had a watchful eye over Japan's democratic proceedings. Specially after PM Kan's adversary Ozawa promised to take effective action against the strengthening Yen. He suggested an intervention was called for at the same time he stated his desire to bump up fiscal spending.


Want to lock in an exchange rate for the future? Learn more about

Forward Contracts

Follow our "tweets" and get up-to-date currency movements daily on Twitter @ http://twitter.com/taheriexchange
 
Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0180   Resistance: 1.0296

CAD/JPY

Support:  80.16   Resistance:  81.74  

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3119  Resistance: 1.3253

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.2761  Resistance: 1.2931

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5348  Resistance: 1.5528

Want us to monitor the market 24 hours for your target rate? Learn   more about

Overnight Orders

This email contains confidential information, is intended only for the named recipient and is privileged. Distributing or copying this email without express consent of Taheri Exchange (TE) is prohibited. If you are not the named recipient, notify us immediately and permanently destroy this email and all copies. Email is not private, secure, or reliable. TE is not liable for any errors or omissions in the content or transmission of this email. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding TE. TE makes efforts to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate. TE has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein. TE shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user). The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. TE, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any products.

unscribe/subscribe to: rick@taheriexchange.com

                                               5775 Yonge Street
                                              Toronto, ON Canada
                                                        M2M 4J1
                                                  T: 416-488-8822
                                                  F: 416-488-4022
                                                T: 1-888-712-9999
Forward Contracts

Risk Management

Overnight Orders

Contact Us

Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Advance Retail Sales data.
CAD -  Labour Productivity and New Motor Vehicle Sales data.

handshake
Customized Service.
Taheri understands your business, and can tailor foreign exchange services that satisfy your unique needs
View our archived FX reports
http://www.taheriexchange.com/news

Share this