Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 137          www.taheriexchange.com   15th of November 2010
worldfx

" Ireland may need bailout to resolve debt issues .."

"We have every confidendce that we will be able to manage this economy... "


 

Ireland did not rule out the possibility that it may have to turn to Europe for help in dealing with its debt crisis on Sunday but said that no application had been made for assistance yet.

“Things are happening day by day,” Justice Minister Dermot Ahern told national broadcaster RTE’s “The Week in Politics” when asked if he would put his reputation on the line and say that Dublin would not apply for aid.

In an emailed statement, a spokesman for the Department of Finance said there were ongoing contacts with international colleagues “in light of current market conditions” but repeated that no application had been made for assistance.

EU sources over the past two days have said that talks on a possible bailout were under way and that Ireland, with borrowing costs rocketing, was unlikely to hold out without assistance.

The European Union is keen for Ireland to accept aid, sources have said, to avert a Greek-style scenario where budget problems in one country plunge the entire euro zone into crisis.

Ahern said reports Ireland was in aid talks were “fiction.”

“There are no negotiations going on. If there were, the government would be aware of it, and we are not aware of it,” he said in a script released by RTE, adding that he had spoken to Prime Minister Brian Cowen on Sunday and to Finance Minister Brian Lenihan.

Ireland would become the second euro zone country after Greece to obtain an international rescue but, earlier, another cabinet colleague said Ireland was not like Greece in that it was funded until mid-2011 and therefore did not need assistance.

“We have every confidence that we will be able to manage this economy,” the minister of enterprise, trade and innovation Batt O’Keeffe said. “It’s been a very hard-won sovereignty for this country and this government is not going to give over that sovereignty to anyone.”

He added that the International Monetary Fund had stated it believed Ireland could manage on its own.

Germany, the EU’s chief paymaster, said it was not exerting pressure on Ireland to accept aid.

EU sources said the range of aid under discussion was 45 billion-90 billion euros ($63 billion-$123 billion), depending on whether Ireland needed support for its banks, driven into debt by the financial crisis and a property market crash.

Such aid, if it were needed, could come from an initial EU bailout mechanism or from the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) set up after Greece was forced to seek help in May.

PORTUGAL STILL UNDER SCRUTINY

One of the sources said Dublin was not keen on applying for emergency funding, but that it may not have a choice if it came under renewed attack in financial markets.

Ireland has blamed Germany for aggravating its woes by pushing the idea of asset value reductions or “haircuts” for private bondholders in a euro zone rescue mechanism from 2013, a move which sent spreads wider on bonds of euro zone peripheral nations.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel was quoted as saying at last week’s G20 meeting that markets must understand that politicians cannot keep asking taxpayers to pay for losses incurred by investors when markets turn against them.

Ireland’s borrowing costs shot to record highs in the past week on concerns about a deficit set to hit 32 percent of gross domestic product this year and worries private bondholders could be forced to take such “haircuts” on their holdings.

The focus on Ireland has not helped ease pressure elsewhere in the euro zone periphery.

The foreign minister of Portugal, seen by many investors as the next country that could need aid, said on Saturday that failure to adopt a broad coalition government to deal with the crisis may force the country out of the euro.

Greece’s prime minister said in an interview on Saturday that the possibility of extending repayment of its 110-billion-euro EU/IMF loan was up for discussion.

On Sunday, Greece was holding local elections that could complicate its deficit-cutting efforts.

Erik Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note on Sunday that the European Commission may be discussing a possible aid deal this weekend with Portugal, which has a smaller deficit but more acute funding needs than Ireland.

“In spite of their differences, if (when) Ireland or Portugal officially seeks help, it can only be in everyone’s interest to start the process for the other country at the same time,” he said in the note.

 

"USD- Retail Sales surge in October.."

 "We expect the holiday shopping season to really ramp up in November.."

Retail Sales bulls-bearsin the U.S. climbed in October by the most in seven months, a sign consumers may play a bigger role in the recovery.in the U.S. climbed in October by the most in seven months, a sign consumers may play a bigger role in the recovery.

Purchases rose 1.2 percent, exceeding the highest forecast  after a 0.7 percent September increase that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Stock gains over the past two months and growing employment may give a boost to consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, in coming months. At the same time, an unemployment rate hovering near 10 percent is prompting merchants such as J.C Penney Co. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.to offer promotions to attract shoppers during the holiday season.

“We expect the holiday shopping season to really ramp up in November,” said Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, who forecast a 1.1 percent gain. “The breadth of discounting” and steady income gains are “providing some support,” he said.

 

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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY


EUR:  The Euro is trending further south as debt fears linger for both Ireland and possibly Portugal. The EUR/USD had been trading in the higher 1.3600 level to currently trending in a bearish direction. If it breaks support in the higher 1.3500 levels...next level will be in the mid 1.3400 range.


USD:  Earlier this morning, U.S. retail sales had given confidence to investors that consumers are trying to assist in the U.S recovery process. This week, CPI and PPI numbers will provide more insight to economy growth.



CAD:  Commodities and equity markets moving moderately positive, along with strong U.S. retail sales.. providing more strength for the CAD. Parity will be achieved again possibly today or this week.

We may see a reversal on the USD/CAD as Europe debt lingers and if U.S. data comes out weak later this week...


Expected range for today..lower 1.0000 to lower 1.0100 levels.

GBP:  The Pound's retreat from 1.6185 high on Friday found support at 1.6040 low on European session, and the pair has bounced up ahead of Wall Street opening, regaining most of the ground lost previously, and reaching 1.6125.

JPY:  Dollar recovery from 80.20 long-term low has extended on Monday, with the Dollar trading on strong note, and the pair extended past 83.00 to hit a fresh 5-week low at 83.25 before pulling back to 83.00 area after weaker than expected US manufacturing data.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.0032   Resistance: 1.0115

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.35   Resistance:  82.53

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3618  Resistance: 1.3839

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3493  Resistance: 1.3673

GBP/USD

Support:  1.6018  Resistance: 1.6150

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Advanced Retail Sales & U.S. Empire Manufacturing data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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