Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 202         www.taheriexchange.com   16th of February 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9850        Resistance: 0.9900

CAD/JPY

Support:  84.57        Resistance:  85.40

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3233     Resistance:  1.3360

EUR/USD

Support:  1.3394     Resistance:  1.3539

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5963     Resistance:  1.6072

Want us to monitor the market 24 hours for your target rate? Learn more about       Overnight Orders 


Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:  The Euro retreat from 1.3575 day high on early European session has finally extended beyond 1.3500, to reach day lows at 1.3465 so far, with the Euro weighed under Dollar strength after better than expected US Housing starts data.

USD:   Both PPI and Housing starts figures came out positive for the U.S. today, the markets are digesting this data...but more interested in this afternoon's FOMC meeting minutes commentary. The FED's commentary is due @ 2pm today, will the theme in their comments continue...unemployment is high, gdp needs to grow etc...or will they provide new insight in tackling a slow paced recovery??

If the markets sense the Fed's comments are dovish...we will see the USD/CAD propel back into possibly the higher 0.9900 range..

CAD:   Today's CAD data, Leading indicators and Manufacturing shipments were moderately positive...not enough to push the Loonie back into the lower 0.9800 range. Once again...expect further choppy levels until the Fed's FOMC announcement later this afternoon.

Today's range ..similar to past 2 days possibly mid 0.9800 to possibly lower 0.9900 levels.

GBP:   The Pound's rejection at 1.6185 has extended sharply after the Bank of England lowered market expectations of higher interest rates on the near term, which has triggered Sterling shorts, pushing GBP/USD below 1.6100 to fresh day lows at 1.6050.

The BoE has been dovish on its approach towards monetary policy, stating that interest rate hikes will be "more gradual than investors expect" and that consumer prices, which are seen above the 2.0% rate target through 2011, will drop back below target by late 2012, with rates rising as expected.

JPY:    The Dollar pullback from Yesterday's high at 83.90 has been contained at 83.55, and the pair squeezed higher on overall Dollar strength after upbeat housing starts, to hit fresh 8-week highs at 83.97.


Want to lock in an exchange rate for the future? Learn more about

Forward Contracts

Follow our "tweets" and get up-to-date currency movements daily on Twitter @ http://twitter.com/taheriexchange
 

 

worldfx

" LSE & TSX merger becoming political with the Ontario government   "....

" the merger will not only raise awareness of Canadian markets around the world but will allow Canadian companies to prosper  ".....


The head of the Toronto Stock Exchange, facing heat from an Ontario government that is skeptical about his proposed merger with the London Stock Exchange, emerged publicly to defend the deal, arguing that it poses no threat to jobs in the Canadian financial sector and will make domestic companies more competitive.

In an interview with The Globe and Mail’s editorial board, Tom Kloet said he believes the $7-billion deal, announced last week, bears few similarities to the proposed takeover of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. last year by BHP Billiton Ltd., which was ultimately denied by Ottawa on the grounds that it was not a benefit to Canada.

“I actually think you probably couldn’t have two examples that were much more different between this and Potash,” said Mr. Kloet, the president and chief executive officer of TMX Group Inc.,the Toronto exchange’s parent company. “It’s very different from taking something out of the ground and distributing it.” He pointed out that Canada will have seven board members, more than any other country.

Mr. Kloet is selling his merger against a backdrop of global consolidation. NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse officially announced their proposed merger Tuesday, and Singapore Stock Exchange has made concessions to get Australian authorities on its side for its proposed takeover of the Australian Stock Exchange.

Drawing a distinction between TMX and Potash is an attempt by Mr. Kloet to save his deal from becoming as politically charged as BHP’s bid was. For that very reason, Mr. Kloet stresses the deal with the LSE will only enhance Canada’s capital markets, rather that put it at the whim of a global powerhouse, which is how some people viewed BHP in relation to Potash Corp.

The merger, he says, will not only raise awareness of Canadian markets around the world, but will also allow Canadian companies to prosper.

“If we help our companies raise capital in a more efficient manner, it’s got to be good for Canada, it’s got to be good for the development of our economy,” he said. This efficiency he speaks of stems from better access to more investors through listings on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as shared technological infrastructure.

“Whether this is good for Canada’s capital markets or not, that should be the political driver and the business driver.”

But Mr. Kloet is prepared for a strategic asset debate, should one arise. He believes the deal transcends protection because it has been structured so fairly. “Strategic asset or not, you have to let institutions that are involved in a competitive market engage in commercial transactions provided they respect the regulatory structure that’s been set up,” he said.

In terms of regulation, all existing TMX and LSE exchanges would continue to be regulated by the same bodies, like the Ontario Securities Commission and the AMF in Quebec. Moreover, the deal has been structured so that three board seats are guaranteed to be filled by Canadians regardless of what transpires in the future.

TMX is also emphasizing what will happen if it isn’t allowed to merge. “Do we run the risk as this consolidation game continues to becoming somewhat marginalized? Yeah, I think there is a risk,” he said.

Still, Mr. Kloet didn’t shy away from the political aspect of his deal. “We respect that there’s a political element to it,” he said. “We look forward to having the chance to present in a comprehensive way the net benefits to Canada.”

If the Singapore-Australia example is any indication, the political game could get quite heated. In fact, Singapore and ASX changed their deal’s terms significantly Tuesday in an attempt to make it more politically palatable. Under the new terms, Australia gets more directors so that the board has an equal split with directors from Singapore.

Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty said Tuesday that his province has the most at stake in the proposed transaction, because Canada’s financial hub in Toronto is home to the country’s premier stock exchange and tens of thousands of jobs.

“The federal government is doing what it must do in keeping with its responsibilities under a particular piece of legislation,” Mr. McGuinty said. “We’ve got a different kind of an interest, which is how does it affect our economy. How does it affect our jobs. How does it affect our stature as the preserve of the best-regarded banking industry in the world.”

Ontario’s Opposition Leader, Tim Hudak, echoed many of the same concerns, saying that the exchange could be considered a strategic asset “in many ways.”

Mr. Kloet tried to address the jobs question Tuesday. “I see no threat to jobs by this transaction,” he said, adding that more work could come of it because Montreal’s SOLA derivatives platform will get more use overseas, which could require more systems architects and developers.

However, Mr. Kloet was relatively mum on the topic of Ontario’s Finance Minister Dwight Duncan’s heated comments. “We look forward to working with him to describe the transaction [and] why it’s a net benefit, and respect his position of authority and the decisions he has to make.”

As for the federal government, “whether we are a strategic asset or not is up to others to decide,” Mr. Kloet said. “What I will say is we are an enterprise that operates in a very competitive environment, and we have to be able to put together commercial arrangements that adhere to both the spirit and the letter of the law, but [also] allow us to compete both domestically and globally.”


" USD- PPI & Housing starts figures increases for the month of January  .."..

" CAD- Manufacturing sales data had a slight increase for the month of December ".....

bulls-bears

Wholesale costs in the U.S. increased for a seventh consecutive month in January, led by higher prices for fuel.

The producer price index rose 0.8 percent, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The so-called core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.5 percent, the biggest rise since October 2008.

Growing economies in Asia and Latin America are boosting global demand for oil and other imported commodities, raising input costs for American factories. As the manufacturing industry rebounds, U.S. companies find it easier to pass along higher costs to corporate clients than to consumers, a sign the recovery is still broadening out.

“There is more pricing power at the producer level because of the strength in the manufacturing recovery,” Jonathan Basilie, chief U.S. economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “Businesses that have been hoarding cash have more purchasing power.”



U.S. housing starts rose more than expected in January to their highest rate in four months but permits for future home construction dropped sharply after hefty gains the prior month, according to a government report on Wednesday that showed the housing market still bouncing along the bottom.

The Commerce Department said housing starts jumped 14.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 596,000 units, the highest since September. December’s starts were revised down to a 520,000-unit pace from the previously reported rate of 530,000 units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts edging up to a 554,000-unit rate. Compared to January last year, residential construction was down 2.6%.

Groundbreaking last month was lifted by a 77.7% jump in volatile multi-family homes. Single-family home construction fell 1.0%.

The housing market recovery is being hobbled by an over-supply of homes that is depressing prices. A high unemployment rate also means the sector, which was at the heart of the worst recession since the 1930s, will struggle to recover even as the broader economy gains momentum.

An independent survey on Tuesday showed sentiment among home builders hovering near all-time lows in February.

New building permits dropped 10.4% to a 562,000-unit pace last month, partially reversing December’s 15.3% surge that came ahead of changes in building codes in three states. Permits were pulled down last month by a 23.8% plunge in the multi-family segment. Single-family unit permits fell 4.8%.

Analysts had expected overall building permits to fall to a 560,000-unit pace in January.

New home completions fell 9.5% to a record low 512,000 units in January.


Canadian manufacturing sales advanced 0.4% in December from November, much less than the 2.1% expected by the market, while unfilled and new orders fell according to Statistics Canada data on Wednesday.

Higher prices accounted for the rise as volume dropped by 0.5%. Nonetheless, the December gain in overall sales helped erase November’s 0.6% fall, and sales ended the year 6.2% higher than in December 2009. The sales figures are seasonally adjusted.

A 16.6% drop in the volatile aerospace industry, marking the largest fall since September 2009, offset gains in energy and metals during the month. Higher prices boosted the oil and coal products industry by 1.5%, while a combination of higher prices and production pushed primary metals sales up 3.9%.

Chemical products and food also advanced, while machinery and electronics declined. Thirteen of 21 industries, representing two-thirds of manufacturing, saw higher sales.

Unfilled orders fell 1.6% in December, led by the aerospace, electronics and machinery industries. New orders also declined 1.9%, led by the same industries as well as fabricated metal products.




Want to manage currency risk and increase revenue? Learn more about    Risk Management  

 


This email contains confidential information, is intended only for the named recipient and is privileged. Distributing or copying this email without express consent of Taheri Exchange (TE) is prohibited. If you are not the named recipient, notify us immediately and permanently destroy this email and all copies. Email is not private, secure, or reliable. TE is not liable for any errors or omissions in the content or transmission of this email. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding TE. TE makes efforts to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate. TE has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein. TE shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user). The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. TE, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any products.

unscribe/subscribe to: rick@taheriexchange.com

                                               5775 Yonge Street
                                              Toronto, ON Canada
                                                        M2M 4J1
                                                  T: 416-488-8822
                                                  F: 416-488-4022
                                                T: 1-888-712-999
Forward Contracts

Risk Management

Overnight Orders

Contact Us

Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Producer price index  & FOMC minutes meeting data.
CAD - Manufacturing shipments  data.

handshake
Customized Service.
Taheri understands your business, and can tailor foreign exchange services that satisfy your unique needs
View our archived FX reports
http://www.taheriexchange.com/news
 


Share this