Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 138          www.taheriexchange.com   16th of November 2010
worldfx

" Soros states 'rapid shift of  economic power from the U.S. to China' .."

"The world order as we know it is turning to disorder... "


Global governance is faltering and China's grip on the global economy is getting tighter, says philanthropist and former hedge fund manager George Soros.

Mr. Soros chose not to attack the U.S. for revving up its printing presses in its new round of quantitative easing, focusing instead on China's foreign exchange policies. Speaking at a gala hosted by the Canadian International Council in Toronto, Mr. Soros said China's devalued currency manipulates global trade and distorts the global economic recovery.

“[President Barack] Obama got the short end of the stick,” Mr. Soros said. Not only is the President getting attacked within his own country, foreign governments are against him even though China's policies are just as significant. In Mr. Soros's view, both countries are at fault, yet he added that both of their policies can work together, if used in moderation. “There ought to be some kind of balance or compromise between them,” he said.

Mr. Soros did not let the U.S. off the hook, noting that quantitative easing has “harmful side effects.”

“History shows that it gives rise to asset bubbles and it disrupts the foreign-exchange markets,” he said.

Mr. Soros devoted much of his talk to China because the country's rapid rise is taking place at the exact same time that the U.S. is losing its global economic dominance. “There is a really remarkable, rapid shift of power and influence from the United States to China,” Mr. Soros said, likening the U.S.'s decline to that of the U.K. after the Second World War.

Because global economic power is shifting, Mr. Soros said China needs to change its focus. “China has risen very rapidly by looking out for its own interests,” he said. “They have now got to accept responsibility for world order and the interests of other people as well.”

Mr. Soros even went so far as to say that at times China wields more power than the U.S. because of the political gridlock in Washington. “Today China has not only a more vigorous economy, but actually a better functioning government than the United States,” he said, a hard statement for him to make because he spent much of his life donating to anti-communist groups in Eastern Europe.

Looking forward, Mr. Soros said global governance is a pressing concern, but it is hard to implement. “Whereas globalization and deregulation spread like a virus, regulation is extremely difficult to achieve on an international scale,” he said.

“The world order as we know it is turning into disorder,” he added. At first “the G20 looked like the new central area of cooperation, and it actually did perform at the initial conference,” he said, “but ever since then opinions have been pulling it apart and in Seoul I think that process was taken a step further.”

Mr. Soros also touched on the unravelling European debt crisis. Although some people are surprised that Europe is still in trouble, he is not shocked. “The current situation can only be understood as a continuation of the financial crisis,” he said. “We are not out of the woods.”

But he did note there could be even more problems ahead because Germany is starting to dominate fiscal policy.

“Effectively Germany is imposing on the other countries a policy that has done very well for Germany” but not for the other governments, he said.

Mr. Soros was in Toronto to accept his award as Globalist of the Year from the Canadian International Council, which is chaired by Research in Motion co-CEO Jim Balsillie.

Mr. Soros recently opened the Institute for New Economic Thinking in Cambridge, England. to broaden economic thought coming out of the financial crisis.


"USD- PPI numbers rose in October.."

 "CAD- Manufacturing shipments fall in September.."
bulls-bears

Industrial production probably rose in October, rebounding from the first decrease in more than a year and signaling manufacturing continues to support the U.S. economic recovery, economists said before a report today.

Output at factories, mines and utilities increased 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent drop in September, the first decline since the recession ended in June 2009, other data may show wholesale prices jumped last month on rising fuel costs, while builders turned less pessimistic in November.

Gains in exports and business investment may keep assembly lines churning, just as the initial spark from the need to rebuild inventories wanes. The increases in global demand that benefitted companies like General Electric Co. and helped lift the economy gave American consumers time to repair finances and resume spending, leading to a more balanced recovery.

“We’re slowly gaining momentum,” said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “The deceleration for manufacturing probably really has run its course. Consumers are slowly ramping up.”



Canadian factory sales fell 0.6 per cent in September and new orders also declined on slower demand for transportation equipment.

Manufacturing sales ebbed to $45.1-billion, Statistics Canada said Tuesday, led by a drop in the cars, car parts and aerospace sector in Central Canada. Sales fell in 13 of 21 industries, representing two-thirds of total sales.

New orders fell 4.9 per cent.

Despite the drop, manufacturing sales were 17.7 per cent higher in September than their recent low in May 2009. Since then, sales have increased in 11 of the past 16 months, Statscan said.

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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The EUR/USD recently resurfaced above the 1.3600 barrier, seemingly finding slight resistance however near 1.3620. The pair remains in range to extend its recovery from a 1.3580 low however, currently quoting at 1.3613 ahead of a slew of US fundamental data.

USD:  Even though positive data came out for the U.S. ...the news out of China, Europe's debt problems continuing to plague the minds of investors..causing strength to the USD.

Will the bullish trend continue after tomorrow's CPI numbers?


CAD:  Markets reacting to news that Chinese government is clamping down on inflation, could trigger another interest rate hike by the Bank of China. Commodites are down as well...a reversal trend for the CAD.

Today's range for the USD/CAD ...higher 1.0000 to possibly lower 1.0200 levels.

GBP: Pound's decline from 1.6185 high on Friday extended on European session, after failure to extend recovery beyond 1.6080, and the pair dipped to 1.5985 -Nov 12-low where the Sterling found support to return above 1.6000.he

JPY: Dollar attempted to extend its rally from 80.50 low last week and the pair reached levels right above 83.25, although capped at 83.33, the Greenback has pulled down to levels right above 83.00 ahead of Wall Street opening bell.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.0084   Resistance: 1.0218

CAD/JPY

Support:  80.88   Resistance:  82.18

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3749  Resistance: 1.3908

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3495  Resistance: 1.3648

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5946  Resistance: 1.6075

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- PPI data.
CAD - Manufacturing Shipments data.

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