Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 97         www.taheriexchange.com   16th of September 2010
worldfx

"Soros calls gold 'the ultimate bubble' "..

"This is a period of great uncertainty so nothing is very safe.."


Billionaire financier George Soros said on Wednesday that gold prices might continue to rise after hitting record highs this week, but there are no safe bets in markets nowadays.

“Gold is the only actual bull market currently. It just made a new high yesterday. In the present circumstances that may continue,” Mr. Soros said in an interview at a Thomson Reuters Newsmaker event.

“It will be very interesting to see if there is a decline in the next few weeks because...everything that makes a new high almost immediately afterwards reverses and disappoints,” Mr. Soros said.

“I called gold the ultimate bubble which means it may go higher but it’s certainly not safe and it’s not going to last forever.”

Gold prices on the spot market rose to a record high on Tuesday amid concerns about the global economy.

“This is a period of great uncertainty so nothing is very safe,” Mr. Soros said.

He said he saw no sign of any return to strong growth in the United States which is struggling to emerge from its worst downturn since World War II.

“If I had to sum it up in one word, I would say: ’blah.’ It may slip into double-dip (recession) or it may not, but it is going to slow down,” Mr. Soros said.

“There is no question in my mind because the stimulus is running out, and there is great resistance to any further stimulus.”

Mr. Soros said Japan did the right thing when it intervened in foreign exchange markets on Wednesday to bring down the value of the yen.

“Certainly, they are hurting because the currency is too strong so I think they are right to intervene,” Mr. Soros said.

Japan sold yen in the market on Wednesday for the first time since 2004 and said it would do so again to prevent the currency’s rise from hurting exporters and threatening a fragile economic recovery.

“They had a real estate boom and then a crash in banking ... It’s 20 years now, and they are still just struggling along,” Mr. Soros said.




"USD- Initial Jobless claims decline to lowest level in 2 mths.."

 "USD- PPI numbers rise in August.."

bulls-bears

Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level in two months, a sign the labor market is improving.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 3,000 to 450,000 in the week ended Sept. 11, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance fell, and those getting extended payments plunged.

While the pace of staffing reductions has slowed, hiring is needed to foster bigger gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, unemployment will hold above 9 percent through next year, a sign it will take years to recover the more than 8 million jobs lost in the recession.

“The labor market is slowly getting back on track,” Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “Businesses are still cautious about hiring, but the strong recovery in profits is giving firms the cash flow they need to invest.”



Wholesale costs in the U.S. rose in August for a second month, indicating demand is strong enough to prevent deflation, or a prolonged drop in prices.

The producer price index increased 0.4 percent, the most in five months and twice the gain in July, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.  A measure excluding volatile food and energy costs climbed 0.1 percent.

With the recovery cooling from earlier this year, companies may have limited scope to pass along gains in commodity costs. The figures underscore Federal Reserve Chairman Ben B. Bernanke’s view that the risks to the economy from higher inflation or further disinflation are low.

“We’re moving along right in the middle of the argument about prices,” Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, said before the report. Deflation is “a scenario we’re likely to avoid. Companies are keeping a lid on prices as the economy is struggling to grow.”



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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

world currency
EUR:  The Euro may see a break into the 1.3200 levels if it breaks resistance @ 1.3177. Today's movement is dependant on U.S equity market reaction to the U.S. data.


USD:  The Dollar has remained basically unchanged against its major rivals after the release of Jobless claims figures, which posted a slight decline last week against market expectations.

Tomorrow's key data announcements, CPI and Michigan Confidence data will cause possibly more movement on the USD/CAD. Will the pair end on a bearish trend..into the 1.0400 levels or descend back into the mid 1.0200 levels?


CAD:  Today's movement on the CAD may reverse...even though some positive U.S. data came out pertaining to the jobless claims..the levels are the same as yesterday. Currently a bearish trend is giving more strength to the Dollar. Today's range will be from the mid 1.0200 levels..gaining to the mid 1.0300 levels.

GBP:  The Pound's reversal from yesterday's high at 1.5655 extended on Wednesday following weaker than expected UK retail sales data, and the pair plunged to 1.5550 session low, to pick up afterwards, returning to levels above 1.5600.

JPY:
  The Dollar has traded higher on European session to regain most of the ground lost on Asian trade and rebound from 85.30 session low has extended to 85.70, approaching 87.75 , 2-week high reached yesterday.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0238   Resistance: 1.0345

CAD/JPY

Support:  82.66   Resistance:  83.79  

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3382  Resistance: 1.3463

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.2996  Resistance: 1.3176

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5444  Resistance: 1.5667

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price & Total Net-Tic Flows data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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