China
will intervene to control consumer prices if they rise too quickly, the
government said on Wednesday, a move that will do little by itself to
tame inflation but could foreshadow harsher monetary tightening.
Steps
to cool demand in China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy,
could weigh on global markets at a time when recoveries in Europe and
the United States remain fragile.
To begin with, the State
Council, or cabinet, said it would aim to increase the supply of
commodities, especially food, that have driven inflation to a 25-month
high, while also clamping down on speculative demand that has lifted
prices higher.
"We need to understand the importance and urgency
of stabilising market prices and take forceful measures," it said after a
routine meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao.
"When necessary,
temporary intervention measures will be implemented on prices of some
important daily necessities and production materials," it added in the
statement.
The State Council singled out grain, oil, sugar and
cotton as markets that it wanted to stabilise. It also vowed to
intensify a crackdown on price speculation and to punish those found
hoarding commodities and pushing up prices by illegal means.
The statement made no mention of monetary policy.
"I
don’t believe that they will just stop here," said Kevin Lai, an
economist with Daiwa Capital Markets. "Many people in the government are
capable enough to figure out that prices controls are not that
effective."
"They really have to do something more about
controlling liquidity and money supply growth if they are serious about
containing inflation," Mr. Lai said, adding that he expected the central
bank to raise interest rates for the second time this year over the
next two weeks.
Worries that the government could start tightening
more aggressively drove China’s main stock index down by 1.9% on
Wednesday to a one-month closing low. The index has dropped 11% over the
past four trading days.
Shi Chenyu, an economist with the
investment banking arm of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China,
said the sternly worded statement showed that inflation had reached the
top of Beijing’s policy agenda.
"The government often opts for
iron-fisted administrative measures to control prices when inflation
becomes a serious problem," Mr. Shi said. "However, harsh administrative
measures may backfire as expectations of further price rises may
intensify."
The State Council said it would hold provincial
governors accountable for the prices of "rice bags" and make mayors
responsible for "vegetable baskets", though it did not specify how it
would implement these directives.
The world’s major consumer of
farm commodities including cotton, corn and sugar, China has been
releasing state reserves this year but has failed to cool record
domestic prices.
Commodities analysts predicted the government’s
statement would have little long-term impact on commodities prices,
which have been rising sharply in China in recent months.
"Agricultural
commodities price falls are likely to be moderate and regain upward
strength if there aren’t concrete measures such as tightening
liquidity," said Lu Yun, an analyst with Shanghai JCI.