Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 139         www.taheriexchange.com   17th of November 2010
worldfx

" China using measures to control 'inflation' .."

"We need to understand the importance and urgency of stabilising market prices... "


China will intervene to control consumer prices if they rise too quickly, the government said on Wednesday, a move that will do little by itself to tame inflation but could foreshadow harsher monetary tightening.

Steps to cool demand in China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, could weigh on global markets at a time when recoveries in Europe and the United States remain fragile.

To begin with, the State Council, or cabinet, said it would aim to increase the supply of commodities, especially food, that have driven inflation to a 25-month high, while also clamping down on speculative demand that has lifted prices higher.

"We need to understand the importance and urgency of stabilising market prices and take forceful measures," it said after a routine meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao.

"When necessary, temporary intervention measures will be implemented on prices of some important daily necessities and production materials," it added in the statement.

The State Council singled out grain, oil, sugar and cotton as markets that it wanted to stabilise. It also vowed to intensify a crackdown on price speculation and to punish those found hoarding commodities and pushing up prices by illegal means.

The statement made no mention of monetary policy.

"I don’t believe that they will just stop here," said Kevin Lai, an economist with Daiwa Capital Markets. "Many people in the government are capable enough to figure out that prices controls are not that effective."

"They really have to do something more about controlling liquidity and money supply growth if they are serious about containing inflation," Mr. Lai said, adding that he expected the central bank to raise interest rates for the second time this year over the next two weeks.

Worries that the government could start tightening more aggressively drove China’s main stock index down by 1.9% on Wednesday to a one-month closing low. The index has dropped 11% over the past four trading days.

Shi Chenyu, an economist with the investment banking arm of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, said the sternly worded statement showed that inflation had reached the top of Beijing’s policy agenda.

"The government often opts for iron-fisted administrative measures to control prices when inflation becomes a serious problem," Mr. Shi said. "However, harsh administrative measures may backfire as expectations of further price rises may intensify."

The State Council said it would hold provincial governors accountable for the prices of "rice bags" and make mayors responsible for "vegetable baskets", though it did not specify how it would implement these directives.

The world’s major consumer of farm commodities including cotton, corn and sugar, China has been releasing state reserves this year but has failed to cool record domestic prices.

Commodities analysts predicted the government’s statement would have little long-term impact on commodities prices, which have been rising sharply in China in recent months.

"Agricultural commodities price falls are likely to be moderate and regain upward strength if there aren’t concrete measures such as tightening liquidity," said Lu Yun, an analyst with Shanghai JCI.


"USD- CPI numbers rose slightly in October.."

 "weakness in the economy means retailers have to absorb increases in their costs.."
bulls-bears

The cost of living in the U.S. rose less than forecast in October, indicating higher prices for commodities such as fuel aren’t filtering through into other goods and services.

The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent after a 0.1 percent rise the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Excluding food and fuel, so-called core costs increased 0.6 percent from October 2009, the smallest gain on record.

Retailers such as J.C. Penney Co. are preparing to use discounts to lure shoppers during the holiday season as a stagnant labor market restrains demand. The core consumer-price figures help validate the Federal Reserve's decision for a second round of unconventional monetary easing aimed at preventing deflation, or a prolonged drop in prices.

“The weakness in the economy means retailers have to absorb increases in their costs rather than pass them on to consumers,” Paul Dales, a senior economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto, said before the report.

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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  Bearish pressure witnessed over the past two days seems to have faded today as the EU moved to aid Irish banking sector, and after yesterday's sell off to 1.3445 low, the pair has remained consolidating between 1.3465 and 1.3515/25 so far today.

USD:  CPI numbers were alittle weak and Housing Starts along with building permits were down. Along with European issues and possible rate hikes in China...causing strength for the USD.

The pair needs to break resistance @  1.0303 to head into higher 1.0300 levels. Overall..great day for sellers of USD.

CAD:  The same issues of yesterday (Europe debt crisis and possible rate hike by China), is lingering around in the markets...the mood of investors remain "uncertain". Commodities have weakened again.

If North American equity markets continue this theme...we may see the USD/CAD head into the higher 1.0200 levels.

Expected range for the USD/CAD....higher 1.0100 to possibly higher 1.0200 levels.

GBP:  Pounds' decline from 1.6185 high on November 12 extended yesterday to fresh lows at 1.58440, and the pair attempted to bounce up on European session although, capped at 1.5935 the Sterling has turned down below 1.5900 again.

JPY: Dollar recovery from 80.20 multi-year low on early November extended yesterday above 83.00, to hit a fresh 6-week high at 83.60, and consolidate in a range between 83.25 to 83.55 on Wednesday's Asian and European sessions.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.0172   Resistance: 1.0278

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.01   Resistance:  81.98

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3750  Resistance: 1.3854

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3407  Resistance: 1.3561

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5831  Resistance: 1.5960

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Housing starts & CPI data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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