Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 98         www.taheriexchange.com   17th of September 2010
worldfx

"Ottawa's key steps to boost economy growth "..

"Continuing stimulus is very important.."


The federal Conservative government plans to introduce three new measures in the coming weeks aimed at boosting the country’s economy and stoke job creation, House Leader John Baird said Thursday as political parties began drawing battle lines on the economic debate once Parliament resumes Monday.

"At a time when our economic growth is still uncertain, our government is focused on jobs, security and prosperity for Canadian families and communities,” Mr. Baird said at a Thursday morning media conference in Ottawa.

However, Mr. Baird said the government had no plans to extend the present stimulus-spending plan, which expires on March 31 next year, or roll out a secondary scheme, citing the need to balance the budget.

To lead Canada down the road to prosperity, he added, the government will keep taxes low and exercise fiscal restraint.

Meanwhile, NDP Leader Jack Layton said his party would be pushing for additional government spending when the House of Commons returns on Monday. He said the NDP agrees with U.S. President Barack Obama, as opposed to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, in terms of what the economy requires.

Mr. Layton charged the Conservatives’ economic plan was following “some rigid ideology,” as opposed to dealing with the reality of relatively high unemployment.

“Continuing stimulus is very important,” Mr. Layton said. “How can you create jobs when are turning off the stimulation of the economy?”

Mr. Layton’s push echoes comments from earlier this week from Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, who said in a broadcast interview that Mr. Harper might be premature in cutting off stimulus early next year. Plus, he said Canadians have told him during his summer bus tour that the economy is not as robust as Mr. Harper suggests.

“We don't know what’s going to happen to the economy in 2011. What Mr. Harper is saying is turn the tap off in March 2011,” Mr. Ignatieff said. “Just turn it off. And I'm saying, ‘Wait a minute, how do you know where we're going to be in 2011?’

Mr. Harper is telling “Canadians the recession's over, back to work, everything's fine, and Canadians out there are saying to me, ‘Actually, it's not fine.’”

The Liberal Party will fight against further reductions in corporate tax rates -- which are scheduled to drop from the present 18% level to 15% by 2012 -- as it argues business rates are already competitive. Plus, it intends to target spending measures the Conservative government has in the works, including billions on new military jets and prisons. Those measures, Liberals claim, do little to help the middle class.

John McCallum, the Liberal infrastructure critic, also warned Thursday municipalities could be stuck with footing the bill for “millions” to finish infrastructure projects not completed by Ottawa’s March 31 deadline.

Money from the federal government’s infrastructure-stimulus plan stipulated money would only be available to municipalities and provinces on the condition that projects are completed before April 1 of next year. But Mr. McCallum said projects have been delayed due to adverse weather and federal government “dithering,” and as a result Ottawa needs to show flexibility on the March 31 deadline.

Pressure for additional stimulus from the federal government comes amid a slowdown in the global economic recovery, led by renewed weakness in key U.S. indicators. However, the Bank of Canada recently raised its key benchmark interest rate, to 1%, suggesting the recovery is proceeding, although at a slower pace, and that financial conditions remain “extremely stimulative.”

Economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a forecast released Thursday, said the Canadian economy does face significant headwinds, among them a weaker outlook in the U.S., a downswing in Canadian housing, an increasingly indebted Canadian consumer, and the waning of benefits from past monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.

The TD forecast envisages 3% growth this year but a meagre 2% advance for 2011, followed by 2.8% growth in 2012.

However, the TD report highlighted the better-than-expected fiscal situation in Ottawa and some of the provinces. “Canada faces a lesser near-term need for radical fiscal austerity, helping to limit its economic undertow.”



"USD- CPI rises in August.."

 "They need to worry about unemployment and boosting growth and not worry about inflation.."

bulls-bears

The cost of living in the U.S. climbed in August for a second month as energy and food prices increased, while other goods and services showed little change.

The consumer-price index rose 0.3 percent for a second month, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. Excluding volatile food and fuel costs, the so- called core rate was unchanged, compared with a projected gain of 0.1 percent.

While demand is strong enough to avert an extended and broad-based decline in prices, companies such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Kroger Co. are offering discounted merchandise to attract shoppers. A limited risk of inflation is one reason economists project the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates close to zero until late next year.

“These numbers won’t be a surprise to Fed policy makers,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York, who accurately forecast the figures. “They need to worry about unemployment and boosting growth and not worry about inflation.”


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR: Euro rally from last week lows at 1.2645 area has been capped at fresh 5-week high 1.3160, where the pair was rejected and pulled back later, giving away day gains, to drop to session low at 1.3045.


USD: 
The Dollar has weakened due to unchanged CPI numbers, @ 9:55am...Michigan Confidence report will cause alittle more movement today. If the data comes out weaker...the USD/CAD could be in the mid 1.0300 levels. Today's USD/CAD range will be from mid 1.0200 levels to mid 1.0300 levels.


CAD:  The CAD has had moderate strength this week, today we may see a reverse..and if the bullish trend continues...next week..we could be in the 1.0400 to 1.0500 levels. Today's CAD strength once again..dependant on today's U.S. equity reaction to the CPI data and the Michigan Cons. Confidence report.

GBP:  The Pound has advanced at a strong pace on Asian session, and, after an initial pullback to session lows right below 1.5600, the pair has soared about 130 pips higher, breaking 1.5650 resistance area, to reach a fresh 5-week high at 1.5720 moments ahead of the European session opening.

JPY:
  The Dollar has established at levels above 85.00 after its rally from 15-year low at 82.85 triggered bu BoJ's monetary intervention, and the pair, capped below 85.95 resistance, has been trading in a 30 pip range below the mentioned high during Friday's Asian and European sessions.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0260   Resistance: 1.0371

CAD/JPY

Support:  82.93   Resistance:  83.74  

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3348  Resistance: 1.3490

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.2958  Resistance: 1.3123

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5568  Resistance: 1.5676

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- C.P.I. & Univ. of Michigan Confidence data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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