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"Gold and Yen considered safe haven adversaries??..."
"The Yen is definitely the preferred safe-haven investment right now over gold...."
If there’s one clear winner owing its success to declining equity
markets in the past few months, it’s gold. The precious metal has been
hovering around a six-week high recently of more than US$1,200. And
some analysts predict that will be more than $1300 USD in the near future.
But whether you believe gold will continue to appreciate (or is
overpriced and due to implode), the metal is one of just a few assets
that have seen a steady increase since the Lehman Brothers collapse in
2008.
So what are some of the others that have joined gold in its
appreciation rally? Well, one might surprise you: it’s the Japanese yen.
Of course, an appreciating yen doesn’t really make sense — Japan is
an export-driven economy that suffers when the value of its currency
trends upwards. But alas, this has been the case so far, according to MarketWatch. Even more surprising, the yen is apparently a preferred safe haven in Asia right now — even above gold.
“The yen is definitely the preferred safe-haven investment right now
over gold, which has only moved slightly higher,” Kathy Lien, director
of currency research at GFT, told Marketwatch. “Typically gold is
bought as an inflation hedge as well, but the deflationary environment
that we are living in right now makes it less attractive.
Although Ms. Lien said gold will again be the safe-haven king eight
to 16 months from now, in the interim, Asian investors are opting for
the yen.
If both continue to increase, the next major levels would be 83.750
in the U.S. dollar/yen, and 1,250 in the gold/U.S. dollar, according to
Richard Hastings a macro and consumer strategist at Global Hunter
Securities.
Of course, that’s entirely contingent on current trends continuing,
Mr. Hastings told Marketwatch. And if the past few months are any
indication, today’s markets are anything but predictable.
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"Why so much interest in Potash Corp??"...
"Potash prices are currently low, leaving upside appreciation potential..."
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BHP Billiton would not be taking a run
at Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan if it didn’t think fertilizer and
agricultural commodity prices were heading higher. While potash prices
fell significantly in the wake of the recession, they have yet to see a
substantial rebound.
That mainly reflected a decline in Chinese demand, according to
Pierre Lapointe, global macro strategist at Brockhouse Cooper. Chinese
fertilizer imports fell to a multi-year low after the recent economic
slowdown.
That virtually ground Canadian potash production to a halt, as China
worked through its inventories. Canadian production volumes are still
below 2007-2008 levels.
“Potash prices are currently low, leaving upside appreciation
potential,” Mr. Lapointe said in a report. “Moreover, given the export
bans and quotas put in place in Russia and Ukraine, importers of grains
will need to increase domestic production in the short term in order to
satisfy domestic demand, exerting further upward pressure on fertilizer
prices.”
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| Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY
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EUR: The Euro has bounced up from session low at 1.2825 on early European
session and the pair regained all the ground lost on Asian trade to
return to 1.2900 resistance area again where sellers contained upside
pressure, sending the pair back to 1.2870.
USD: A continual bearish trend on the USD today, will this trend continue after tomorrow mornings Philly Fed talk. Expect more weakness in the USD today. The USD/CAD is still unable to break the 1.0250 levels..will it test this support his week?
CAD: Once again the Potash bid is causing strength to the CAD, this week has been a good week so far for buyers of the USD. Expect some good buying rates today. Today's range will be from the possible higher 1.0200 to the higher 1.0300 levels.
Currently the USD/CAD is heading south into the lower 1.0300 levels, great rates to buy the USD today.
GBP: The Pound has performed a sharp upside reversal after the release of
BoE's monetary policy minutes, and the pair's rebound from 1.5500
session low extended 170 pips higher, reaching 1.5670 session high.
JPY: The Japanese Leading Index rose 0.4 points to reach 99.0 in June 2010,
said the Cabinet Office today. The Coincident Index increased slightly
to 101.3 in June against 101.2 the previous month.
The Dollar is lost ground against the Yen on European session and,
after a timid recovery attempt from 85.35, which has been capped at
85.50 area, the pair has extended its decline from session high at
85.70, to a fresh session low at 85.20.
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| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP
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USD/CAD
Support: 1.0231 Resistance: 1.0360
CAD/JPY
Support: 82.05 Resistance: 83.41
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.3154 Resistance: 1.3376
EUR/USD
Support: 1.2749 Resistance: 1.2984
GBP/USD
Support: 1.5536 Resistance: 1.5739
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| Main USD/CAD data today: |
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1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.
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