Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 77         www.taheriexchange.com   18th of August 2010
worldfx

"Gold and Yen considered safe haven adversaries??..."

"The Yen is definitely the preferred safe-haven investment right now over gold...."



If there’s one clear winner owing its success to declining equity markets in the past few months, it’s gold. The precious metal has been hovering around a six-week high recently of more than US$1,200. And some analysts predict that will be more than $1300 USD in the near future.

But whether you believe gold will continue to appreciate (or is overpriced and due to implode), the metal is one of just a few assets that have seen a steady increase since the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.

So what are some of the others that have joined gold in its appreciation rally? Well, one might surprise you: it’s the Japanese yen.

Of course, an appreciating yen doesn’t really make sense — Japan is an export-driven economy that suffers when the value of its currency trends upwards. But alas, this has been the case so far, according to MarketWatch. Even more surprising, the yen is apparently a preferred safe haven in Asia right now — even above gold.

“The yen is definitely the preferred safe-haven investment right now over gold, which has only moved slightly higher,” Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT, told Marketwatch. “Typically gold is bought as an inflation hedge as well, but the deflationary environment that we are living in right now makes it less attractive.

Although Ms. Lien said gold will again be the safe-haven king eight to 16 months from now, in the interim, Asian investors are opting for the yen.

If both continue to increase, the next major levels would be 83.750 in the U.S. dollar/yen, and 1,250 in the gold/U.S. dollar, according to Richard Hastings a macro and consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities.

Of course, that’s entirely contingent on current trends continuing, Mr. Hastings told Marketwatch. And if the past few months are any indication, today’s markets are anything but predictable.




"Why so much interest in Potash Corp??"...

 "Potash prices are currently low, leaving upside appreciation potential..."

bulls-bears

 

BHP Billiton would not be taking a run at Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan if it didn’t think fertilizer and agricultural commodity prices were heading higher. While potash prices fell significantly in the wake of the recession, they have yet to see a substantial rebound.

That mainly reflected a decline in Chinese demand, according to Pierre Lapointe, global macro strategist at Brockhouse Cooper. Chinese fertilizer imports fell to a multi-year low after the recent economic slowdown.

That virtually ground Canadian potash production to a halt, as China worked through its inventories. Canadian production volumes are still below 2007-2008 levels.

“Potash prices are currently low, leaving upside appreciation potential,” Mr. Lapointe said in a report. “Moreover, given the export bans and quotas put in place in Russia and Ukraine, importers of grains will need to increase domestic production in the short term in order to satisfy domestic demand, exerting further upward pressure on fertilizer prices.”




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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

world currency


EUR:  The Euro has bounced up from session low at 1.2825 on early European session and the pair regained all the ground lost on Asian trade to return to 1.2900 resistance area again where sellers contained upside pressure, sending the pair back to 1.2870.

USD:  A continual bearish trend on the USD today, will this trend continue after tomorrow mornings Philly Fed talk. Expect more weakness in the USD today. The USD/CAD is still unable to break the 1.0250 levels..will it test this support his week?

CAD:  Once again the Potash bid is causing strength to the CAD, this week has been a good week so far for buyers of the USD. Expect some good buying rates today. Today's range will be from the possible higher 1.0200 to the higher 1.0300 levels.

Currently the USD/CAD is heading south into the lower 1.0300 levels, great rates to buy the USD today.


GBP: The Pound has performed a sharp upside reversal after the release of BoE's monetary policy minutes, and the pair's rebound from 1.5500 session low extended 170 pips higher, reaching 1.5670 session high.

JPY:  The Japanese Leading Index rose 0.4 points to reach 99.0 in June 2010, said the Cabinet Office today. The Coincident Index increased slightly to 101.3 in June against 101.2 the previous month.

The Dollar is lost ground against the Yen on European session and, after a timid recovery attempt from 85.35, which has been capped at 85.50 area, the pair has extended its decline from session high at 85.70, to a fresh session low at 85.20.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0231   Resistance: 1.0360

CAD/JPY

Support:  82.05   Resistance:  83.41   

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3154  Resistance: 1.3376

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.2749  Resistance: 1.2984

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5536  Resistance: 1.5739

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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