Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 141         www.taheriexchange.com   19th of November 2010
worldfx

" U.S. economist gives his view on B.O.C's monetary policy .."

"So the trade balance is now in deficit, exports are in the garbage can and manufacturing has been devastated... "



U.S. economist Carl Weinberg today slammed the Bank of Canada for hiking interest rates, in turn pushing up the Canadian dollar, which he linked to poor manufacturing numbers in the most recent report.

"Central bankers around the world, there is a lesson for you in this report: Beware the retraction of monetary accommodation - a.k.a. hiking interest rates, or otherwise tightening monetary conditions - when the largest economies of the world are not," the chief economist of High Frenquency Economics said in a research note.

"You could get your head handed to you, especially if you are a small, export-dependent nation."

Statistics Canada reported earlier this week that manufacturing sales slipped 0.6 per cent in September. New orders plunged, largely because of the transportation sector.

"We figure the dip in manufacturing production is linked to the dip in exports," Mr. Weinberg said.

"They were 10.5 per cent higher than a year ago in September, but they remain 25.3 per cent lower than their peak.

"The export debacle can be directly linked to a number of factors, including subpar growth in the United States, structural changes in the North American auto industry and the collapse of U.S. demand for home construction materials and energy in volume terms. It is also linked to the appreciation of the loonie, now flirting with par against the U.S. dollar."

Mr. Weinberg links the dollar's rise to the Bank of Canada's three increases in its benchmark overnight rate since the recession's end "in a battle against inflation that clearly does not exist."

"So the trade balance is now in deficit, exports are in the garbage can and manufacturing has been devastated."

Other economists have also linked the weakness in manufacturing and a swelling trade deficit to the loonie's rise but also to sputtering demand in the United States and the attractiveness of Canadian assets to foreign investors given the country's economic and fiscal standings.

At its last policy meeting in mid-October, the central bank held its key rate steady at 1 per cent, following three hikes. And it did note the softness in global economies and that fact that inflation was running slightly below its forecast. It also noted that any further tightening would have to be "carefully considered."

Its key rate is still at historically low levels and, the central bank noted when it last hiked rates in early September, "as a result of monetary policy measures taken since April, financial conditions in Canada have tightened modestly but remain exceptionally stimulative."



"China dislikes U.S. commission report.."

 "We urge this so-called commission to stop interfering in China;s internal affairs.."
bulls-bears

A U.S. congressional report that called on Washington to do more to force China to increase the value of its currency constitutes interference in Beijing's internal affairs, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Friday.

Ministry spokesman Hong Lei accused the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission of having a “Cold War mentality” and of harbouring a grudge against China.

“We urge this so-called commission to stop interfering in China's internal affairs and instead exert greater efforts to build mutual trust and co-operation between China and the U.S.,” Mr. Hong said in a statement posted on the ministry's website.

In its annual report issued Wednesday, the commission repeated accusations that China deliberately keeps its currency, the yuan, weak against the dollar to make its exports cheaper, leading to huge trade surpluses with the U.S.

Beijing has repeatedly rejected U.S. accusations that its currency is undervalued, and it contends that a stronger yuan will not ease America's yawning trade deficit. Chinese officials say globalization of production also has contributed to trade imbalances and the United States must solve its problems of unemployment, overspending and low savings.

The politically sensitive imbalance – America's largest with any country – hit a monthly record of $28-billion in August and is running 21 per cent higher than in 2009.

The commission said China's ability to sell the United States four times as many goods as it imports from the U.S. is “a major drag” on the American economy.


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro moved away from daily highs at 1.3730 and fell to test an intra-day support level around 1.3665/70. EUR/USD so far has been able to hold above 1.3665 as the Dollar remains with momentum across the board following an increase of 50 basic points in Chinese banks reserve requirements. Despite recent retracement the European currency is still gaining ground on Friday.

USD:  Markets are reacting to China's central bank locking up more of their money reserves. Commodities dropped slight...the "uncertainty" continues as I mentioned on numerous reports. This is the continual theme for 2010 and possibly into 2011.

With no U.S. data today..expect the markets to be choppy with no clear trend. Earlier the USD/CAD spiked into the lower 1.0200 levels..currently dropping from those levels.

CAD:  Today is still a good day for buyers and sellers of the USD.

Expected range for the USD/CAD......mid 1.0100 to possibly higher 1.0200 levels.

GBP:  Pound's recovery from 1.5840 lows on Tuesday extended higher on early European session and the pair broke above 1.6050 resistance area to hit session highs at 1.6095, where sellers showed up, to push the Sterling to 1.6020, right above day low.

JPY:   Dollar recovery from long-term lows at 80.20 extended on Thursday, and the pair spiked up to a 6-week high at 83.80 although the Yen is trimming losses today, pushing the pair to session lows at 83.15 at European opening.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.0154   Resistance: 1.0260

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.12   Resistance:  82.38

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3881  Resistance: 1.4057

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3586  Resistance: 1.3730

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5896  Resistance: 1.6041

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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