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" U.S. economist gives his view on B.O.C's monetary policy .."
"So the trade balance is now in deficit, exports are in the garbage can and manufacturing has been devastated... "
U.S. economist Carl Weinberg today slammed the Bank of Canada for hiking interest rates, in turn pushing up the Canadian dollar, which he linked to poor manufacturing numbers in the most recent report.
"Central bankers around the world, there is a lesson for you in this
report: Beware the retraction of monetary accommodation - a.k.a. hiking
interest rates, or otherwise tightening monetary conditions - when the
largest economies of the world are not," the chief economist of High
Frenquency Economics said in a research note.
"You could get your head handed to you, especially if you are a small, export-dependent nation."
Statistics Canada reported earlier this week that manufacturing sales
slipped 0.6 per cent in September. New orders plunged, largely because
of the transportation sector.
"We figure the dip in manufacturing production is linked to the dip in exports," Mr. Weinberg said.
"They were 10.5 per cent higher than a year ago in September, but they remain 25.3 per cent lower than their peak.
"The export debacle can be directly linked to a number of factors,
including subpar growth in the United States, structural changes in the
North American auto industry and the collapse of U.S. demand for home
construction materials and energy in volume terms. It is also linked to
the appreciation of the loonie, now flirting with par against the U.S.
dollar."
Mr. Weinberg links the dollar's rise to the Bank of Canada's three
increases in its benchmark overnight rate since the recession's end "in a
battle against inflation that clearly does not exist."
"So the trade balance is now in deficit, exports are in the garbage can and manufacturing has been devastated."
Other economists have also linked the weakness in manufacturing and a
swelling trade deficit to the loonie's rise but also to sputtering
demand in the United States and the attractiveness of Canadian assets to
foreign investors given the country's economic and fiscal standings.
At its last policy meeting in mid-October, the central bank held its key
rate steady at 1 per cent, following three hikes. And it did note the
softness in global economies and that fact that inflation was running
slightly below its forecast. It also noted that any further tightening
would have to be "carefully considered."
Its key rate is still at historically low levels and, the central bank
noted when it last hiked rates in early September, "as a result of
monetary policy measures taken since April, financial conditions in
Canada have tightened modestly but remain exceptionally stimulative."
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"China dislikes U.S. commission report.."
"We urge this so-called commission to stop interfering in China;s internal affairs.."
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A U.S. congressional report that called on Washington to do more to
force China to increase the value of its currency constitutes
interference in Beijing's internal affairs, the Chinese Foreign Ministry
said Friday. Ministry spokesman Hong Lei accused the U.S.-China
Economic and Security Review Commission of having a “Cold War mentality”
and of harbouring a grudge against China. “We urge this so-called commission to stop interfering in China's
internal affairs and instead exert greater efforts to build mutual trust
and co-operation between China and the U.S.,” Mr. Hong said in a
statement posted on the ministry's website. In its annual report
issued Wednesday, the commission repeated accusations that China
deliberately keeps its currency, the yuan, weak against the dollar to
make its exports cheaper, leading to huge trade surpluses with the U.S. Beijing
has repeatedly rejected U.S. accusations that its currency is
undervalued, and it contends that a stronger yuan will not ease
America's yawning trade deficit. Chinese officials say globalization of
production also has contributed to trade imbalances and the United
States must solve its problems of unemployment, overspending and low
savings. The politically sensitive imbalance – America's largest
with any country – hit a monthly record of $28-billion in August and is
running 21 per cent higher than in 2009. The commission said
China's ability to sell the United States four times as many goods as it
imports from the U.S. is “a major drag” on the American economy.
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| Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY
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EUR: The Euro moved away from daily highs at 1.3730 and fell to test an
intra-day support level around 1.3665/70. EUR/USD so far has been able
to hold above 1.3665 as the Dollar remains with momentum across the
board following an increase of 50 basic points in Chinese banks reserve
requirements. Despite recent retracement the European currency is still
gaining ground on Friday.
USD: Markets are reacting to China's central bank locking up more of their money reserves. Commodities dropped slight...the "uncertainty" continues as I mentioned on numerous reports. This is the continual theme for 2010 and possibly into 2011. With no U.S. data today..expect the markets to be choppy with no clear trend. Earlier the USD/CAD spiked into the lower 1.0200 levels..currently dropping from those levels.
CAD: Today is still a good day for buyers and sellers of the USD.
Expected range for the USD/CAD......mid 1.0100 to possibly higher 1.0200 levels.
GBP: Pound's recovery from 1.5840 lows on Tuesday extended higher on early
European session and the pair broke above 1.6050 resistance area to hit
session highs at 1.6095, where sellers showed up, to push the Sterling
to 1.6020, right above day low.
JPY: Dollar recovery from long-term lows at 80.20 extended on Thursday, and
the pair spiked up to a 6-week high at 83.80 although the Yen is
trimming losses today, pushing the pair to session lows at 83.15 at
European opening.
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| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP
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USD/CAD
Support: 1.0154 Resistance: 1.0260
CAD/JPY
Support: 81.12 Resistance: 82.38
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.3881 Resistance: 1.4057
EUR/USD
Support: 1.3586 Resistance: 1.3730
GBP/USD
Support: 1.5896 Resistance: 1.6041
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| Main USD/CAD data today: |
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1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.
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