| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
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USD/CAD
Support: 0.9837
Resistance: 0.9948
CAD/JPY
Support: 81.95
Resistance: 82.81
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.3551
Resistance: 1.3685
EUR/USD
Support: 1.3741
Resistance: 1.3853
GBP/USD
Support: 1.6128
Resistance: 1.6235
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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY
EUR: Euro rally from Monday lows at 1.3570 extended higher on Asian session, reaching a fresh 2-month high at 1.3860, and the pair has lost momentum on European session, dipping to levels below 1.3800, even though risk appetite remained high on equity markets.
USD: Earlier this morning positive ADP numbers weakened the USD, as a trader, I have always absorbed this data with "a grain of salt". The reason, this data provides insight to the anticipated "Non-Farm payrolls" data. Whenever ADP figures are positive..Non-farm payrolls will come even more surprisingly strong. As well, ADP numbers at times don't provide a true indication of employment growth for the U.S..
Will we see the continual bearish trend on Friday due to these numbers? Don't be surprised if the trend reverses... Also, the continual clashes in Egypt this morning...might cause a shake in the markets.
CAD: The CAD benefiting from positive U.S. data, oil maintaining it's strength...will the U.S. equity markets continue this bearish trend on the USD/CAD.
A great day for buyers of the USD...great rates available.
Today's range .. possible lower 0.9800 to mid 0.9900 levels.
GBP: The Pound's rally from 1.5820 low on Monday has extended on Wednesday's European session, with the pair breaking above above 1.6190 resistance area, to hit fresh multi-month highs at 1.6225.
JPY:
The Dollar decline from last week high at 83.20 extended yesterday below 81.85 support area, to a fresh 4-week low at 81.30, to bounce up over the Asian session, reaching 81.60 high.
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" Egyptian banks downgraded by Moody's "....
" international ratings agencies cited political turmoil in Egypt and it's potential impact on the country's economy ".....
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Moody's Investors Service downgraded the ratings for five Egyptian banks while Standard & Poor's lowered its ratings for two banks, in the latest volley of bad news for the economy of a nation mired in violent protests.
Moody's cuts come just two days after it lowered Egypt's sovereign rating, citing the unrest that has gripped the Arab world's most populous nation for more than a week. It warned that the five banks' ratings remain on review for possible additional downgrade. Analysts have grown increasingly concerned of a spillover effect, worried that the chaos will begin to affect other countries in the oil-rich Mideast.
Both international ratings agencies cited the political turmoil in Egypt and its potential impact on the country's economy, raising concerns that included a possible liquidity squeeze and government's ability to support the banking sector.
Moody's said the downgrade of the local currency deposit ratings of the banks was “mainly driven by our reassessment of the country's capacity to support its banking system, following the lowering of the government's ratings.”
It said it was concerned that the current political uncertainty, if not resolved, “could negatively impact foreign direct investment flows into the country and disrupt economic activity, thereby weakening the performance of the main economic sectors.”
Business has been sharply disrupted in Egypt as the protests have dragged on. Tourists are fleeing in droves, many factories have suspended production and the national carrier EgyptAir is flying only about 25 per cent of its scheduled flights.
In addition, banks have been closed since Jan. 28, as has the country's stock exchange which saw its benchmark index fall about 17 per cent in the span of two days before the weekend. It remains unclear when the exchange or the banks will reopen.
The five banks affected by Moody's cuts were the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, Commercial International Bank and Bank of Alexandria.
Moody's cut NBE, Banque Misr, Commercial International Bank and Bank of Alexandria's local deposit ratings two notches, to Ba1/NP, while Banque du Caire's LDR was lowered one notch to Ba1/NP. The cuts are all to levels well below prime.
Meanwhile, S&P, which had yesterday lowered Egypt's long-term foreign currency sovereign rating to BB from BB+, cut the ratings for the National Bank of Egypt and the Commercial International Bank to BB, from BB+. It said its cuts reflected the worries about the ongoing political instability and the risk the unrest would affect liquidity in the banking sector.
In addition, there were worries that the weakening of Egypt's creditworthiness could affect the government's ability to provide support, if needed, for government-related entities such as NBE.
“The ratings on NBE ... reflect our opinion of the bank's poor asset quality, very weak capitalization, and risky operating environment,” S&P said.
" USD- ADP employment figures increased in January .."..
" The labor market remains on a slow healing path ".....
Companies in the U.S. added more workers than forecast to payrolls in January, showing a pickup in the labor market, data from a private report showed today.
Employment increased by 187,000 last month after a revised 247,000 gain in December that was less than initially estimated, according to figures from ADP Employer Services.
Bigger payroll gains are needed to help bring down an unemployment rate that Federal Reserve policy makers say is too high. A Labor Department report in two days is forecast to show companies added 140,000 jobs in January, while the jobless rate rose to 9.5 percent.
“The labor market remains on a slow healing path," Neil Dutta, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York, said before the report. “The labor market is recovering but that recovery is not strong enough to bring down unemployment in a meaningful way.”
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| Main USD/CAD data today: |
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1. USD- ADP employment change data. CAD - No relevant data.
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