The longer they wait, the more agitated U.S. Federal Reserve Board
chairman Ben Bernanke becomes over the unwillingness of U.S. lawmakers
to get serious about the country’s budget deficit.
Appearing
before a congressional committee for the fifth time since January, Mr.
Bernanke on Tuesday delivered his strongest warning yet about waiting to
narrow the widest fiscal shortfall since the Great Depression.
On a day when surveys of purchasing managers from China to Europe to
the United States flagged the possibility that surging commodity prices
might soon feed into the costs of manufactured goods, the Fed chairman,
while not ignoring inflation, was most concerned about the state of the
U.S. government’s finances.
Mr. Bernanke said the deficit is the
single biggest issue facing the economy, characterizing the near-record
shortfall as a “near and present danger” that could trigger a financial
crisis on the scale of the one that drove the global economy into
recession in 2008.
After spending hundreds of billions to boost
demand during the global recession, richer countries are struggling to
shrink swollen deficits amid tepid economic growth and high unemployment
rates. The European debt crisis shows investors will punish governments
that fail to get their finances under control by driving up interest
rates to punishing levels, and that is the fear in the United States.
“It’s really a very worrisome situation,” Mr. Bernanke said in testimony at the Senate banking committee on Tuesday.
Mr.
Bernanke’s increasingly urgent appeals to the U.S. Congress on the
deficit are significant because even after six years as the country’s
top central banker, the Fed chief rarely seeks to influence political
decisions.
Alan Greenspan, the previous Fed chairman, was famous
for putting his name behind legislative initiatives he supported, such
as George W. Bush’s tax cuts.
Mr. Bernanke, on the other hand, is
so careful about entering the political fray that he has avoided
uttering a strong opinion on the attempt by some Republican lawmakers to
remove job creation from the Fed’s mandate.
“We are not seeking
any change,” Mr. Bernanke said Tuesday when asked about the push to have
the Fed focus only on inflation. “We will do whatever Congress tells us
to do.”
But when it comes to the $1.6-trillion (U.S.) deficit,
Mr. Bernanke is bolder at telling his congressional masters what he
thinks.
For months, Mr. Bernanke has used appearances on Capitol
Hill and elsewhere to bridge the gap between Republicans who would slash
government spending immediately and Democrats who worry that an
austerity program would kill the economic recovery.
The Fed
chairman’s message is a mix of the two: Draw up a rigorous
deficit-reduction program, but delay its implementation until the
economy is comfortably on track.
This also is the approach
advocated by neutral observers of the U.S. situation, such as the
International Monetary Fund and President Barack Obama’s
debt-and-deficit commission.
The idea is to keep the bond
vigilantes at bay. If investors are reasonably confident that U.S.
politicians are serious about the country’s fiscal problems, they will
continue to lend the government money at reasonable rates.
But if
investors lose faith, the cost of financing a public debt that is
projected to climb to $17-trillion by 2020 will become more expensive,
making the current fiscal challenge even harder.
The reason for urgency is that it is impossible to know when market sentiment will turn.
“If
it became clear that these problems were not going to be adequately
addressed because we were just in a perpetual gridlock, I think that
would raise significant concerns that would bring these problems forward
into the present,” Mr. Bernanke told senators.
It’s difficult to judge whether Mr. Bernanke’s entreaties are having any impact.
There
are reports of lawmakers quietly trying to build a bipartisan consensus
on a long-term budget strategy based on the report of Mr. Obama’s
deficit commission, which proposed a combination of spending cuts and
tax increases worth $4-trillion over 10 years.
Publicly, it’s another matter.
Democratic
and Republican lawmakers have yet to agree to a budget for the current
fiscal year, which began five months ago. The new Republican leaders of
the House of Representatives are in a standoff with their Democratic
counterparts in the Senate over making immediate budget reductions.
The
House on Wednesday approved a stopgap budget bill designed to avert a
government shutdown on Friday. The measure would extend spending
authority for two weeks, while trimming $4-billion from the budget.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said his chamber would pass the measure and forward it to Mr. Obama by the end of the week.
The
compromise shows each party is keen to avert a government shutdown,
which would mean unemployment cheques and social security payments would
go undelivered. But absent from the debate is any discussion over
reducing future health and pension costs, the biggest factors behind the
U.S.’s longer-term debt burden.
Another political fight is
looming over the raising the government’s $14.3-trillion borrowing
limit. The Treasury Department said Tuesday that it will breach the debt
ceiling between April 15 and May 31, a little later than its previous
projection of April 5. Without approval from Congress to issue more
debt, the U.S. could theoretically default on its existing obligations.
Nevertheless, some Republicans are threatening to refuse the Treasury’s
request for a higher borrowing limit.
For now, most investors
appear to think politicians will work out their differences. The yield
on 10-year Treasuries is about 3.5 per cent, a low rate by historical
standards. Mr. Bernanke begged politicians to avoid squandering
investors’ goodwill.
“Fortunately, the markets to this point seem
to have a lot of confidence that we will address the problem,” Mr.
Bernanke said. “I hope that we can meet that expectation.”
Companies in the U.S. added more
workers in February than forecast, indicating the labor market
may be strengthening, data from a private report based on
payrolls showed today.
Employment increased by 217,000 last month after a revised
189,000 gain in January, according to figures from ADP Employer
Services. The median estimate in the Bloomberg News survey
called for a 180,000 gain last month.
Bigger, sustained payroll gains would underscore Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben.S.Bernanke's testimony to Congress
yesterday that there are “grounds for optimism” about the
labor market in coming months. Companies added 200,000 jobs in
February, while unemployment rose to 9.1 percent, economists
project a Labor Department report to show in two days.
“Employment rose moderately in February, lifted by slowly
improving economic fundamentals and a rebound after January’s
severe weather,” Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics in
Danville, California, said before the report. “Over the past
year, declines in private sector employment have given way to
moderate job creation.”