Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 211         www.taheriexchange.com   2nd of March 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9681        Resistance: 0.9776

CAD/JPY

Support:  83.77        Resistance:  84.60

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3407     Resistance:  1.3524

EUR/USD

Support:  1.3779     Resistance:  1.3893

GBP/USD

Support:  1.6259     Resistance:  1.6357

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:  The Euro retreat from 1.3860 resistance area has been contained at 1.3740, and the pair bounced up on European morning trade, to retrace most of the territory lost yesterday, and return to 1.3835, with the mentioned 1.3860 on sight.

USD:  Earlier this morning positive ADP employment data came out positive, usually an indicator of "new created" jobs for the U.S...that is combined with this Friday's "non-farm payrolls data". Usually the markets take this data with a "grain of salt"..as at times not a true indicator of employment for the U.S...but a guage.

Evidence of that..is the subdued reaction in the markets to the numbers..markets are mixed...after Libya's President's speech this morning. Later this morning due is Bernanke's testimony again to the House. If his comments are hawkish..expect...the USD/CAD to remain in the 0.9700 range..if not..possibly head up to the 0.9800 lvl.


CAD:  Equity markets are down...oil is on the rise due to Libyan commentary....overall the "Loonie"..has continued it's strength. The main piece of commentary that was relevant to yesterday's B.O.C. speech.."canadian dollar strength is affecting exports and productivity"...how long with the B.O.C allow the CAD to continue in this matter..before the intervene? Will this intervention happen in the 2nd qtr or 3rd???

Once again great day for buyers of the USD. For sellers,  similar to yesterday await the mid to  higher 0.9800 lvls.

Today's range .. possibly higher 0.9600 to higher 0.9700 levels.

GBP:  The Pound's retreat from yesterday's high at 1.6330 extended to 1.6215 on Asian session, and the pair regained momentum over the European session, bouncing up above 1.6300, to reach day high at 1.6315.


JPY:  The Dollar upside attempt from 81.60 lows was capped yesterday at 82.25 area, and the pair eased to 81.80 on US session, and, after having remained flat, below 82.00 in Asia, the pair has pushed higher, to reach 82.10 at European session opening.

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worldfx

" Bernanke warns of budget deficit for the U.S. ?? "....

" it's really a very worrisome situation  ".....


The longer they wait, the more agitated U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke becomes over the unwillingness of U.S. lawmakers to get serious about the country’s budget deficit.

Appearing before a congressional committee for the fifth time since January, Mr. Bernanke on Tuesday delivered his strongest warning yet about waiting to narrow the widest fiscal shortfall since the Great Depression.

On a day when surveys of purchasing managers from China to Europe to the United States flagged the possibility that surging commodity prices might soon feed into the costs of manufactured goods, the Fed chairman, while not ignoring inflation, was most concerned about the state of the U.S. government’s finances.

Mr. Bernanke said the deficit is the single biggest issue facing the economy, characterizing the near-record shortfall as a “near and present danger” that could trigger a financial crisis on the scale of the one that drove the global economy into recession in 2008.

After spending hundreds of billions to boost demand during the global recession, richer countries are struggling to shrink swollen deficits amid tepid economic growth and high unemployment rates. The European debt crisis shows investors will punish governments that fail to get their finances under control by driving up interest rates to punishing levels, and that is the fear in the United States.

“It’s really a very worrisome situation,” Mr. Bernanke said in testimony at the Senate banking committee on Tuesday.

Mr. Bernanke’s increasingly urgent appeals to the U.S. Congress on the deficit are significant because even after six years as the country’s top central banker, the Fed chief rarely seeks to influence political decisions.

Alan Greenspan, the previous Fed chairman, was famous for putting his name behind legislative initiatives he supported, such as George W. Bush’s tax cuts.

Mr. Bernanke, on the other hand, is so careful about entering the political fray that he has avoided uttering a strong opinion on the attempt by some Republican lawmakers to remove job creation from the Fed’s mandate.

“We are not seeking any change,” Mr. Bernanke said Tuesday when asked about the push to have the Fed focus only on inflation. “We will do whatever Congress tells us to do.”

But when it comes to the $1.6-trillion (U.S.) deficit, Mr. Bernanke is bolder at telling his congressional masters what he thinks.

For months, Mr. Bernanke has used appearances on Capitol Hill and elsewhere to bridge the gap between Republicans who would slash government spending immediately and Democrats who worry that an austerity program would kill the economic recovery.

The Fed chairman’s message is a mix of the two: Draw up a rigorous deficit-reduction program, but delay its implementation until the economy is comfortably on track.

This also is the approach advocated by neutral observers of the U.S. situation, such as the International Monetary Fund and President Barack Obama’s debt-and-deficit commission.

The idea is to keep the bond vigilantes at bay. If investors are reasonably confident that U.S. politicians are serious about the country’s fiscal problems, they will continue to lend the government money at reasonable rates.

But if investors lose faith, the cost of financing a public debt that is projected to climb to $17-trillion by 2020 will become more expensive, making the current fiscal challenge even harder.

The reason for urgency is that it is impossible to know when market sentiment will turn.

“If it became clear that these problems were not going to be adequately addressed because we were just in a perpetual gridlock, I think that would raise significant concerns that would bring these problems forward into the present,” Mr. Bernanke told senators.

It’s difficult to judge whether Mr. Bernanke’s entreaties are having any impact.

There are reports of lawmakers quietly trying to build a bipartisan consensus on a long-term budget strategy based on the report of Mr. Obama’s deficit commission, which proposed a combination of spending cuts and tax increases worth $4-trillion over 10 years.

Publicly, it’s another matter.

Democratic and Republican lawmakers have yet to agree to a budget for the current fiscal year, which began five months ago. The new Republican leaders of the House of Representatives are in a standoff with their Democratic counterparts in the Senate over making immediate budget reductions.

The House on Wednesday approved a stopgap budget bill designed to avert a government shutdown on Friday. The measure would extend spending authority for two weeks, while trimming $4-billion from the budget.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said his chamber would pass the measure and forward it to Mr. Obama by the end of the week.

The compromise shows each party is keen to avert a government shutdown, which would mean unemployment cheques and social security payments would go undelivered. But absent from the debate is any discussion over reducing future health and pension costs, the biggest factors behind the U.S.’s longer-term debt burden.

Another political fight is looming over the raising the government’s $14.3-trillion borrowing limit. The Treasury Department said Tuesday that it will breach the debt ceiling between April 15 and May 31, a little later than its previous projection of April 5. Without approval from Congress to issue more debt, the U.S. could theoretically default on its existing obligations. Nevertheless, some Republicans are threatening to refuse the Treasury’s request for a higher borrowing limit.

For now, most investors appear to think politicians will work out their differences. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is about 3.5 per cent, a low rate by historical standards. Mr. Bernanke begged politicians to avoid squandering investors’ goodwill.

“Fortunately, the markets to this point seem to have a lot of confidence that we will address the problem,” Mr. Bernanke said. “I hope that we can meet that expectation.”



" USD- ADP employment numbers grew for the month of February.."..

" Over the past year, declines in private sector employment have given way to moderate job creation " ...

bulls-bears

Companies in the U.S. added more workers in February than forecast, indicating the labor market may be strengthening, data from a private report based on payrolls showed today.

Employment increased by 217,000 last month after a revised 189,000 gain in January, according to figures from ADP Employer Services. The median estimate in the Bloomberg News survey called for a 180,000 gain last month.

Bigger, sustained payroll gains would underscore Federal Reserve Chairman Ben.S.Bernanke's testimony to Congress yesterday that there are “grounds for optimism” about the labor market in coming months. Companies added 200,000 jobs in February, while unemployment rose to 9.1 percent, economists project a Labor Department report to show in two days.

“Employment rose moderately in February, lifted by slowly improving economic fundamentals and a rebound after January’s severe weather,” Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics in Danville, California, said before the report. “Over the past year, declines in private sector employment have given way to moderate job creation.”


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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- ADP employment change & Beige Book data.
2. CAD - No relevant data.

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