The U.S. economy is so bad that the chance of avoiding a double dip back into recession may actually be pretty good.

The sectors of the economy that traditionally drive it into recession are already so depressed it’s difficult to see them getting a lot worse, said Ethan Harris, head of developed markets economics research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research in New York. Inventories are near record lows in proportion to sales, residential construction is less than half the level of the housing boom and vehicle sales are more than 30 percent below five years ago.

“It doesn’t rule out a recession,” Harris said. “It just makes it less likely than otherwise.”

The possibility of the economy lapsing into another contraction during the next year is 25 percent, he said in a Sept.1 report. Harris cut his forecast for growth this year by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6 percent and lowered his 2011 estimate by a half point to 1.8 percent, according to the report.

Federal Reserve policy makers agree that a renewed contraction is unlikely, although the risks have risen.

“I expect the economy to continue to expand in the second half of this year, albeit at a relatively modest pace,” Fed Chairman Ben.S. Bernanke said in an Aug. 27 speech.

The risks of a renewed economic contraction have risen due to a spate of disappointing economic data, said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor who’s now a senior economic adviser for the Potomac Research Group in Washington. He reckons the chance of a relapse is 35 percent, up from 10 to 20 percent a month ago.

“We will probably avoid a double dip,” Gramley said. “But we’re in for a prolonged period of subpar growth of 2 percent or less.”

“Things can get worse,” said Martin Feldstein, a professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and president emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research. “When the economy is moving forward at a very slow pace, very close to zero, the risk is we could slip over into the negative side of zero.”

Feldstein served as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors from 1982 to 1984, around the time of the last double dip in the U.S. He put the possibility of a contraction at one in three and also voiced doubts about the Fed’s ability to combat it, given how low interest rates already are.

“I think there is very little that the Fed can do,” Feldstein, a member of the NBER committee that determines when recessions start and stop.

“With growth at a stall speed of 1 percent or below, the stock markets could sharply correct, and credit spreads and interbank spreads widen while global risk aversion sharply increases,” said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the global financial crisis.

The number of Americans seeking jobless benefits fell last week to a level that indicates the labor market has not improved this year even as the economy expanded.

Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 472,000 in the week ended Aug. 28, in line with the median forecast of economists, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Applications exceeded the 463,000 average so far this year.

Employment is stagnating as businesses, uncertain sales will hold up, delay adding workers. Federal Reserve policy makers, who cut growth forecasts for the second half of 2010, indicated they were concerned lingering unemployment and “elevated” claims were limiting consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy.

Claims “remain elevated and suggest the economy has failed to gather momentum midway through this quarter,” Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “Further improvement in initial claims will be gradual and uneven as business confidence remains low.”