Toronto Gold Bullion Newsletter Archive - Daily FX report dated 20/05/2011

In the race to replace International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde is being pitched as a much-needed agent of change for an institution bound by tradition.

After all, the 55-year-old lawyer would be the first woman to head the global lender. She’s an advocate for developing economies and has the experience of helping manage Europe’s raging debt crisis, her supporters say.

But as the battle lines around the IMF contest harden, contingents from emerging nations pushing to secure leadership point to another fact about the French finance official: she’s another European, and therefore not the reformer they want.

The smart and media-savvy Ms. Lagarde is now the leading candidate in a competition some government finance officials privately acknowledge will likely wind up sticking with the status quo, by putting a European in the top spot – again.

If Ms. Lagarde succeeds her French countryman, it would perpetuate a 65-year-old tradition that automatically hands the post to a European.

This is a system that the world’s powers have acknowledged should end. She would be the 11th European to lead the fund since its creation in 1946 and the second successive managing director from France, which has occupied the IMF executive suite more than any other country (four times so far).

Her appointment would be a bitter blow to emerging economies, such as Brazil and China, which have long been promised more say to match their growing clout in the global economy.

Mr. Strauss-Kahn resigned from the IMF this week. On Thursday, a judge agreed to free Mr. Strauss-Kahn on $1-million (U.S.) bail shortly after he was indicted on charges of sexually assaulting a 32-year-old hotel chambermaid.

Critics complain that Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s departure is a missed opportunity to reform the IMF if the job goes to another European.

It’s time for the powers that control the IMF to live up to their repeated commitment to make the institution more representative of the global economy it serves, fellows Arvind Subramanian and Nicolas Véron of the Washington-based Petersen Institute for International Economics argued in a blog posting.

“After years of talk about change, the time is ripe for genuine reform in the governance of international institutions to reflect the changing economic realities,” they said. “The United States should not cast itself as a defender of an antiquated status quo.”

Protecting the status quo, however, isn’t what Ms. Lagarde’s growing legion of backers are talking up as the IMF’s executive board was meeting Thursday and Friday to sort out the selection process.

The nature of Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s alleged crimes and his acknowledged reputation as a womanizer may bolster Ms. Lagarde’s candidacy.

Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg agreed that the IMF would benefit from having a woman in charge. “Women are half of the world’s population and one can imagine that the competence and influence of women can play a role in this context,” he told Swedish state radio. He also touted her experience dealing with the euro crisis.

Ms. Lagarde’s cabinet colleague, French Transport Minister Thierry Mariani, highlighted her stellar reputation in the developing world. “I made a few trips with her to Asia. I was able to verify her popularity among ministers of large emerging countries,” he told France-Info radio.

Ms. Lagarde has refused to discuss her own candidacy. But she embraced the official European line Thursday, insisting the job must stay in Europe – again. “I’m a true European and I’m convinced that Europe is the way to go, as far as we are concerned,” she told reporters.

Ms. Lagarde is now the favourite to get the job, at 6-to-4 odds, according to British bookmaker William Hill PLC, jumping ahead Thursday of Kemal Dervis of Turkey (5-2), a former director of the United Nations Development QProgram and Turkish economic affairs minister. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is eighth at 10-1.

Still unclear is what the United States will do. The U.S. is the single largest voting shareholder of the IMF. Under a long-standing arrangement with European countries, it is home to both the IMF and World Bank, and selects the World Bank president. Europe, in turn, nominates the IMF chief.

But there are subtle clues that the United States is leaning toward perpetuating that arrangement. Asked about a report in German magazine Der Spiegel that the U.S. would back Ms. Lagarde, Lael Brainard, the Treasury Department’s top international official, told an audience in Washington Thursday that “we haven’t taken a position on any particular candidate.”

Ms. Brainard’s boss, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, issued a statement Thursday calling for “an open process that leads to a prompt succession.” That remark would seem to favour a candidate, such as Ms. Lagarde – a known commodity who could quickly take charge of the euro zone bailouts.

Few dispute Ms. Lagarde’s impeccable credentials. She’s smart, media-savvy and has shown a lot of strength under pressure, helping to negotiate a controversial euro zone bailout fund and ably guiding France though the financial crisis.

Ms. Lagarde has friends far beyond Europe. She’s fluent in English, having worked and lived a large chunk of her life in the United States. She was the first female chairman of Chicago-based law firm Baker & McKenzie LLP.

As a teen, Ms. Lagarde competed internationally on France’s national synchronized swim team and spent a year in the leafy Washington, D.C., suburb of Bethesda, Md., on a high-school exchange at the tony Holton Arms girls’ school.

The IMF, which has 187 member countries, has financing deals with 26 countries, excluding the poorest countries. Only five of those are members of the European Union – Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and soon Portugal.

Article provided via the Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/frances-lagarde-the-favourite-to-lead-imf/article2029057/

" CAD- April inflation rate below expectations "..

Canada’s inflation rate was below economists’ forecasts in April as a decline in food prices tempered increases in gasoline.

Consumer prices rose 3.3% from a year earlier, matching the gain in March, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists predicted a 3.4% gain based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg surveys of 27 economists. The index rose 0.3% in April from March, slower than the prior monthly gain of 1.1 percent and below the 0.5% forecast by economists.

Inflation will advance faster than 3% this quarter, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said in a May 16 speech, which he said was “modestly stronger” than his earlier projection. Mr. Carney reiterated future interest-rate increases will be “carefully considered” after three rises last year, and said some of the higher inflation was due to temporary gains in sales taxes, food and energy costs.

Energy prices rose 17.1% in April from a year earlier, Statistics Canada said today. Gasoline prices rose 26.4%, bringing them within 5% of their record high posted in July 2008.

Canadian lawmakers will ask gasoline industry executives to explain the recent jump in prices, Tony Clement said May 12. Price movements aren’t transparent enough, Mr. Clement said. At the time, Clement was industry minister and two days ago he was named president of the Treasury Board by Prime Minister Stephen Harper in a cabinet shuffle.

Food prices rose 3.3% from a year earlier. Vegetable prices gained 4.3% in April, slowing from the 18.6% annual pace seen in March. On the month, vegetable prices fell 7.7%.

Other food prices were higher in April, with bakery products rising 6.7% on the year and meat prices 5.5% higher.

“Food inflation is certainly the challenge of the year,” Maple Leaf Foods Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michael McCain said on an April 28 earnings call. “This is not only a challenge in the quarter, but will likely roll its way through the entire year, as the effects of a 122 % corn price increase and a 90 percent wheat price increase year-over-year weaves its way through the food chain.”

The core inflation rate, which excludes eight volatile items such as gasoline, slowed to 1.6% from a year earlier in April, from March’s 1.7 % advance. Monthly core prices rose 0.2%, after March’s 0.7% gain. The results matched economists forecasts.

The central bank sets interest rates to keep inflation at the 2% midpoint of a 1% to 3% target range. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Tim Lane said yesterday that the bank had noted the impact of rising energy prices on inflation.

“That’s something that we expect to have a temporary effect on inflation,” Mr. Lane said. “Core inflation remains well- anchored and we expect it to converge to the 2% target over the period ahead.”

Alcohol and tobacco prices rose 2.4% on the year in April, while clothing and footwear prices fell 1.1% from a year earlier.

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