Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 162         www.taheriexchange.com   20th of December 2010

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support: 1.0062        Resistance: 1.0152

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.98        Resistance:  83.06

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3241     Resistance:  1.3400

EUR/USD

Support:  1.3075     Resistance:  1.3241

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5500     Resistance:  1.5605

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:  Euro retreat from 1.3500 high last week, found support at 1.3125 session low on Friday, and the pair attempted to pick up on early Asian and European sessions to be capped by resistance at 1.3185, as risk appetite deteriorates under the possibility of a conflict between the two Koreas.

USD:   With no key piece of data due for the U.S. today, markets will remain choppy...commencing Wednesday..key U.S. data will cause movement to end of the holiday week.

Currently USD is continuing it's bullish trend due to Eurozone worries and South Korea drills.

CAD:   Today's Wholesales data came out short, causing further weakness to the CAD. Expect thin volume trading once U.S. equity markets open.

Great opportunities for sellers of USD..and if the USD/CAD can drop back into mid to higher 1.0000 ...buying opportunities as well.

Expected range to buy 1.0095 and to sell 1.0120-1.0130 levels.

GBP:   Despite dropping to a session low near 1.5525 just prior, the GBP/USD recently bounced around 50 pips to the upside reaching as high as 1.5575. The pair has traded relatively quiet throughout the day, mostly consolidated above the 1.5500 zone as the holidays near.


JPY:   Extending lightly to the downside, the USD/JPY most recently shed another 13 pips to record a fresh daily low in 83.67. The pair has been steadily creeping lower from the day’s high at 84.13 which it recorded over the Asian session.


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worldfx

" Equities performing well, yet EU and Korean tensions continue "....

"There is an underlying uncertainty with regards to the Eurozone which is very much in focus".....


World stocks edged higher towards a recent two-year high on Monday while the euro hit a two-week low as concerns over the eurozone debt crisis stayed in focus following last week’s Irish rating downgrade.

Tensions in Korea also made investors wary. Despite threats of war by Pyongyang, South Korea launched live-fire drills on a disputed island after an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting failed to agree on how to defuse the crisis.

Last week’s five-notch credit rating downgrades of Ireland by Moody’s and the absence of immediate steps from European leaders to contain the crisis weighed on the single currency while supporting safe-haven German government bonds.

“The ratings change at the end of last week is still keeping the euro under selling pressure,” said Carl Hammer, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

“There is an underlying uncertainty with regards to the euro zone which is very much in focus.” European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet warned on Monday Ireland needed to follow its bailout plan to the letter, while the ECB voiced “serious concerns” a new law drafted by Dublin could force the central bank to take losses on the collateral it accepts in exchange for loans to commercial banks.

The MSCI world equity index was up around 0.2% while the Thomson Reuters global stock index was steady on the day.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.9%, boosted by utility shares, while Asian shares fell a third of a%. U.S. stock futures were up around 0.2%, pointing to a firmer open on Wall Street later.

“Macroeconomic figures were lately on the upside... If momentum in economic data continues to be good, then the market can stay around the current levels,” said Koen De Leus, strategist at KBC Securities, in Brussels.

Emerging stocks lost 0.3%.

U.S. crude oil rose 0.2% to $88.19 a barrel as freezing temperatures in Europe and the U.S. Northeast looked set to boost demand for heating fuel.

Bund futures rose 40 ticks, with the tensions in Korea supporting flows to safe-haven assets.

The euro fell as low as $1.3125 before trimming losses to $1.3160.

“The lack of any substantive plan to bulk up the (European stabilisation fund) or provide an alternative crisis management system has kept the market euro-negative as the downgrades keep rolling in from Moody’s on Ireland, Spain etc,” Lloyds TSB said in a note to clients.

“While there may well be something more forthcoming over the next few weeks, for the moment the market is likely to see this as a green light to sell the euro, suggesting risks of a break below $1.30 in euro/dollar this week.

The dollar was steady against a basket of major currencies. The Korean won briefly hit a four-week low against the dollar after South Korea’s drills.




"CAD- Wholesales figures come out flat in October"..

"Drop in inventory- machinery and equipment ".....

bulls-bears

Canadian wholesale sales unexpectedly stalled in October as a drop in machinery and equipment offset gains in sales of vehicles and personal and household goods.

Wholesale sales were little changed at C$44.9 billion ($44.4 billion), Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. 

The wholesale data and tomorrow’s report on retail sales are the last components of October’s gross domestic product report due Dec. 23, and economists predict an expansion of 0.3 percent. Canada’s output growth slowed to a 1 percent annualized pace between July and September, the agency said Nov. 30.

The Bank of Canada may keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1 percent until the second quarter of next year. Governor Mark Carney said Dec. 7 that foreign trade has been a drag on economic growth and Europe’s debt crisis threatens the global recovery.

Wholesale sales of motor vehicles and parts rose 2.8 percent to C$7.9 billion in October, Statistics Canada said. Sales of personal and household goods rose 1.7 percent to C$6.97 billion, the agency said. Four of seven major categories posted gains.

Machinery, equipment and supplies fell 3.5 percent to C$9.14 billion.

Inventories fell 0.7 percent to C$52.5 billion. The inventory-to-sales ratio, a measure of how many months it would take to deplete stocks at the current sales pace, declined to 1.17 in October from 1.18 in the previous month.

The volume of wholesale sales, which removes the effect of price changes, rose 0.3 percent, Statistics Canada said.

Wholesale sales were 8 percent higher in October than the same month a year earlier, while inventories were 0.8 percent higher.

Statistics Canada also revised its estimate of September’s wholesale sales increase to 0.7 percent from an initial report of 0.4 percent.

 

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - Wholesale sales data.

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