Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 163         www.taheriexchange.com   21st of December 2010

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support: 1.0128        Resistance: 1.0240

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.51        Resistance:  82.44

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3343     Resistance:  1.3498

EUR/USD

Support:  1.3076     Resistance:  1.3240

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5450     Resistance:  1.5574

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:  The Euro might have set a long-term top at 1.4280 on early November, as the pair is expected to trade between 1.3200 and 1.2600 during the whole 2011 year, with debt concerns weighing on the common currency, according to the CIBC Exchange Rate Forecast.

The Euro Dollar is expected to drop from the current 1.3200 area to 1.2600 on the first quarter of next year, according to CIBC: The Eurozone debt story is far from over, and could again be front and centre if the Irish election creates doubts about the political viability of the IMF/EU deal. We see the euro headed for another dip, and a generally strong start to 2011 for the greenback."

From Q1 lows, the pair is expected to pick up to 1.2900 in the second quarter of the year, and extend to 1.3100 in the third quarter, to return to current levels, 1.3200 by the end of 2011.

USD:   Similar to yesterday, with no relevant data out of the U.S..once again similar movements for the USD/CAD today.

CAD:   Commodity and equity were strengthening earlier, positive news out of Canada for the CPI and Retail sales figures ...caused the USD/CAD to drop from the 1.0200 level..currently the pair still remains in the higher 1.0100 range.

Overall good opportunities to buy USD and sell today.

Expected range to lower 1.0100 and to sell 1.0125 levels.

GBP:   The Pound"s recovery from 1.5480 low yesterday has been halted at 21.5570 high and the pair's retreat, caused by surging public borrowing figures, has extended below 1.5480, and approaches three-month low at 1.5455.


JPY:   The Bank of Japan decided by unanimous vote to keep the benchmark rate at 0.0%-0.1% for third consecutive month as widely expected.

The Board repeated that, "Japan's economy still shows signs of a moderate recovery, but the recovery seems to be pausing".

The BOJ will continue buying assets and provide long-term funding through its 35 trillion yen program, the statement showed.

The Japanese Yen remains flat after the announcement. USD/JPY is 5 pips lower trading at the 83.65 area.


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worldfx

" China worries about Eurozone debt issues "....

"We are very concerned about whether the European debt crisis can be controlled".....


China urged European policymakers to back their tough talk with action on Tuesday by showing they can contain the eurozone's festering debt problems.

China, which has invested an undisclosed portion of its US$2.65 trillion reserves in the euro, said it backed Europe's efforts so far to tackle the debt problems, but made clear it would like to see the measures having more effect.

"We are very concerned about whether the European debt crisis can be controlled," Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming said during a dialogue between China and the European Union (EU), its biggest trade partner.

"We want to see if the EU is able to control sovereign debt risks and whether consensus can be translated into real action to enable Europe to emerge from the financial crisis soon and in a good shape."

Concerns that Europe's debt problems could engulf bigger economies such as Spain have weighed on global financial markets this year and taken a toll on the euro.

The currency suffered yet another setback on Tuesday when credit agency Moody's warned it may cut Portugal's rating by one or two notches due to its weak growth prospects and steep borrowing costs.

China's Vice Premier Wang Qishan said Beijing had played its part to ease Europe's plight and held out hope that a turning point was near.

"The EU has taken active measures to deal with the debt crisis, and we hope the measures can achieve some results as soon as possible," Mr. Wang said at the opening of the trade dialogue.

But he said risks abounded, with global demand and the world economy still tepid, and financial markets mired in choppy trade and excess cash.

For its part, Mr. Wang said China would pursue monetary prudence and active fiscal policies to ensure the world's second largest economy would sustain its solid growth.

In part to protect its euro investments, China has repeatedly expressed its support for the common currency this year and vowed to buy bonds from Greece, whose fiscal meltdown in May set off the latest debt rout.

Analysts said China's rhetoric on Europe's troubles was driven by both economic and political factors.

Xu Biao, an analyst with China Merchants Bank, said on the one hand China was reluctant to see a struggling Europe propel commodity prices higher by following the Federal Reserve in unveiling a massive round of quantitative easing.

On the other hand, Mr. Xu said China is well aware that as the owner of the world's largest foreign reserves, it wields power over the euro and the debt crisis has given it a new bargaining chip over other outstanding issues with the EU.

"The more important China's support is, the more powerful China is," Mr. Xu said. "When you have such a large foreign exchange reserve, you will use it as a tool to achieve your strategic goals."

TRADE TENSIONS

The annual trade talks between China and the EU highlighted a number of bilateral issues that need resolving, from trade and currency spats to intellectual property theft, all of which have raised tensions in recent months.

China is concerned by what it sees as growing European protectionism and trade tariffs.

The EU is worried, among other things, about Beijing's "indigenous innovation" policies to boost homegrown technology and about possible disruptions to supplies of rare earths used in many high-tech and clean energy products.

China produces 97% of the world's rare earths, a key ingredient for making auto parts and high-tech products. Advanced economies also worry that "indigenous innovation" could be used by China to shut out their products.

"We have made the point strongly that this is a major concern to EU business and our Chinese colleagues reiterated that rare earth supplies will be sustained," the EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht told a news conference after the meeting with Chinese officials.

"We have discussed indigenous innovation, and agreed we will not treat products and services differently based on where patents are registered," he said.




"CAD- CPI numbers come out lower in November"..

"After a one month stir, Canadian inflation appears to be heading back to hibernation ".....

bulls-bears

Canada’s annual rate of inflation slowed more than expected in November as prices for such items as energy, food and clothing rose at a slower pace, Statistics Canada report Tuesday.

Overall consumer prices were up 2% from a year earlier, compared to 2.4% in October, the federal agency said. The October reading was the largest increase since October 2008.

The core inflation rate —which strips out volatile items —eased to 1.4% in November, the slowest pace since March 2008. The core rate was 1.8% in October.

Economists had expected an overall annual inflation rate of 2.2% and a core rate of 1.6% in November.

The Canadian dollar declined 32 basis points to 98.07 cents US after the inflation numbers were released.

The slower pace of price increases will likely keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines, after the central bank held its trendsetting interest rate at 1% for the past two months.

“After a one-month stir, Canadian inflation appears to be headed back to hibernation,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“The big question after the surprise pop in October prices was whether it was a one-month fluke, or the start of a new higher trend in Canadian inflation. Today’s report emphatically answers that it was a one-month fluke.

“This docile report will certainly quell talk of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada in early 2011, especially in combination with the meagre one% GDP growth seen in Q3.”

Statistics Canada said energy prices rose 6.7% in November from a year earlier, following a 9.1% annual rate the previous month. Gasoline prices were up 7.2% but still below 8.8% annual rate in October.

Electricity costs rose 5.9% year-over-year in November from 8.1% the previous month.

Food prices were up 1.5% in November, compared to a 2.2% rise in October. Prices for clothing and footwear fell 3.2% from a 0.1% decline in October.


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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - CPI & Retail Sales data.

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