Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 100         www.taheriexchange.com   21st of September 2010
worldfx

"China responds to U.S. criticism of Yuan "..

"The trade imbalance between China and the U.S. is not decided by exchange rate but by globalization.."


It is not wise for the United States to point its finger at the yuan’s exchange rate and demand appreciation, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday.

“Recently, there are some discordant voices in the U.S. criticizing the yuan exchange rate, and saying it (the U.S.) would adopt any possible means to press for yuan appreciation. It is unwise and also near-sighted,” the ministry said in a statement on its website.

“The trade imbalance between China and the U.S. is not decided by exchange rate but by globalization. Yuan appreciation can not solve the U.S. trade deficit, on which the Americans have also reached consensus.”

The yuan on Tuesday rose for ninth straight day and broke the important level of 6.70 per dollar for the first time since its revaluation in 2005 following strong criticism from U.S. President Barack Obama about China’s currency policy.

The United States, a major currency issuer, should instead focus on its own economic recovery and put its fiscal house in order to help maintain stability of its own currency, it said.

China has been trying to boost its imports from the United States, but the latter must relax its restrictions on high-tech sales to China, it said.

The government’s policy to boost domestic demand to reduce the economy’s reliance on exports were working, it added.

The ministry added that domestic expectations for yuan appreciation were not strong, and that a stronger currency would do little to resolve the Sino-U.S. bilateral trade imbalance.

The yuan has rallied for nine straight days amid strong criticism from the United States about China’s currency policy.



"USD- Housing increased in the month of August.."

 "CAD- Inflation dips in August.."

bulls-bears

Housing starts in the U.S. increased more than forecast in August, a signal the industry is stabilizing.

Builders broke ground on 598,000 homes at an annual rate, up 10.5 percent and the most since April, following a 541,000 pace in July, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits, a proxy of future activity, rose from a record low.

Mortgage rates close to record lows may be giving builders some confidence to begin new projects after the expiration of a government tax credit caused sales to plunge. Even so, a housing recovery is dependent on a drop in the unemployment rate, which is currently near 10 percent.

“Housing is recovering at a very anemic pace compared with other postwar recoveries,” Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Hugh Johnson Advisors LLC in Albany, New York, whose starts forecast was the highest in a Bloomberg News survey, said before the report. “The inventory of unsold homes is still very, very substantial and as a result it’s going to take time before we start to see sales improve meaningfully and starts improve meaningfully.”



Canada's annual inflation is beginning to track lower again after an extraordinary spike in July that accompanied the introduction of a new harmonized sales tax in three provinces.

Statistics Canada said Tuesday that inflation edged down one-tenth of a point to 1.7 per cent in August, as prices on a monthly basis fell 0.1 percentage points from July.

Underlying core inflation, which the Bank of Canada uses to gauge price pressures in the country, was unmoved at 1.6 per cent, well below the central bank's 2-per-cent target.

The harmonized sales tax is estimated to be adding about 0.7 per cent to the annual inflation rate — even more in the affected provinces of Ontario, British Columbia and Nova Scotia — and will be exerting an influence for the next year.

Prior to July's 0.8 per cent bump, the inflation rate had fallen to 1 per cent.

The HST was not the only influence on inflation — prices were moderately higher in August across a broad spectrum, with increases registered in seven of the eight components tracked by the agency.

Overall energy prices rose 5 per cent, pushed by a 7.7-per-cent hike in electricity rates, while home purchases rose 5.5 per cent, car insurance was up 5.1 per cent, and restaurant increased 2.5 per cent.

Food prices also rose somewhat with 1.6-per-cent increase last month, following a 1.1-per-cent pick-up in July, and prices associated with health and personal care rose 3.5 per cent.

The major deflationary influences were clothing and footwear, which saw costs decline 2.2 per cent last month from a year earlier, home mortgage costs, which declined 3.8 per cent, fresh vegetables, which dipped 4.2 per cent, and air travel, which fell 2 per cent.

Regionally, the harmonized tax provinces were among the jurisdictions with the highest inflation rate, led by Ontario at 2.9 per cent. But Newfoundland was not far behind with a 2.4 per cent rate, mainly due to higher costs for electricity, meat and autos.

Manitoba had the country's lowest inflation rate among provinces at 0.3 per cent.


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro has bounced up strongly over the European session and returned to levels right below 13160.


USD: 
Earlier housing starts data came out positive, dollar weakness based on the data...markets still awaiting the Fed rate decision and commentary later today @ 2:15pm. Will the U.S. equity markets opening this morning...continue the bearish trend or will we see a reverse trend.

Today's key announcement by the Fed will dictate the trend for the USD this week, if commentary reveals a dovish tone...expect the USD/CAD to reach the higher 1.0300 levels possibly lower 1.0400. Overall, market volatility will be higher today than yesterday.


CAD:  The CAD has benefited tremendously the past few days on strong commodity and equity movements. Today, we may see the reversal of this strength. The USD/CAD has tested support in the 1.0260 level a few times yesterday..and in order to fall further..it needs to break this support level. Expected range today on the pair ...may see the lower 1.0200 to mid 1.0300 levels.

Once again...all dependant on today's Fed commentary.


GBP:  Pound's retreat from 1.5730 high on Friday has extended lower at European session, after failure at 1.5585, and the pair dipped to 1.5500 area, where the Sterling found support to return to previous day low at 1.5535/45.

JPY:
   Dollar Yen decline has found support above 85.20 area and the pair has bounced up, after successful debt auctions by Spain and Ireland increased demand for risk, and the USD/JPY returned to previous levels above 85.50.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0260   Resistance: 1.0390

CAD/JPY

Support:  82.48   Resistance:  83.48  

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3421  Resistance: 1.3567

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3042  Resistance: 1.3175

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5488  Resistance: 1.5586

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Housing starts & FOMC rate decision data.
CAD - CPI data.

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