Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 185         www.taheriexchange.com   24th of January 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9909        Resistance: 1.0004

CAD/JPY

Support:  82.96        Resistance:  83.68

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3465     Resistance:  1.3638

EUR/USD

Support:  1.3531     Resistance:  1.3640

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5882     Resistance:  1.5990

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:   The Euro rally from early January lows has been capped at 1.43645 high on early Asian session, and the pair eased afterwards, to find support at 1.3540 during European session, and bounce up to 1.3600 area ahead of wall Street opening.

The president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, in an interview with the WSJ, unleashed from the debt crisis talk that has dominated his speeches and addresses for a long time now and started focusing on inflation. Moreover, he suggested a rate hike might be implemented despite debt concerns in the European fringe.

The leader of the ECB said that inflation is to be watched closely and warned central banks around the globe that "In periods like this where you have inflationary threats that are coming from commodities, have to go through the hump and be very careful that there are no second-round effects."

Inflationary pressures from emerging economies with staggering growth such as China or Brazil, that carry inflation rates of 5% in the first case and even more in the latter, are pushing globally traded commodities up. Inflation in the eurozone has surpassed the 2% target for the first time in two years at 2.2%, with analysts expecting 2.5% in as soon as two months the WSJ assures.


USD:   Today markets will be rather subdued..due to no expected U.S. data. Expect choppy trading and thin volumes for today. Overall, key U.S. data, GDP, Durable Goods, Michigan Confidence & Personal Consumption...will move the markets. The question is...will it continue a bullish direction or remain in bearish levels?

CAD:  Commodity and equity markets today on a slightly bearish trend, the USD/CAD remains in a bearish direction...currently in the mid 0.9900 range. The only key data for Canada this week is the CPI numbers..due out tomorrow. In order for the CAD to remain in it's "parity range"...is to see commodities continue their rise..and for the U.S. and Eurozone to provide positive data to keep investors optimistic.

Good day for buyers and sellers of the USD.

Expected range....possible lower  0.9900 to lower  1.0000 levels.

GBP:   Pound's recovery from 1.5830 low on Thursday has been rejected at 1.6000 resistance area again, and the pair has remained trading on a moderate negative tone on Asian and European sessions, reaching 1.5920.


JPY:    Dollar recovery from 81.85 low last week, was capped 83.15 on Friday and the pair pulled back, to find support at 82.50, right above the 20-day SMA, and bounce up on Asian session, reaching 82.90 high at European session.


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worldfx

" Carney states ' U.S. is a reclining world power'  "....

" It is less about reducing our dependency on the U.S. than increasing our exposure or dependency or access to these other markets".....


Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney continues to drive home the message that Canadian companies need to open new markets and spread beyond the United States.

Emerging markets in Asia, he told CTV's Question Period, are coming on strong.

"There are other very good emerging markets where we are under-exposed and we need to build our game there," the central bank chief said in the interview broadcast yesterday. "It is starting, but we really, really do need to accelerate it."

Mr. Carney noted a "paradigm shift" in wealth and power, though he wasn't ruling out the United States completely.

"The U.S. is not a declining world power; it is a reclining world power," he said. "They are getting their house in order. It is less about reducing our dependency on the United States than increasing our exposure or dependency or access to these other markets."


" Sarkozy requesting regulation of commodity markets .."..

" If we don't do anything we run the risk of food riots in the poorest countries".....

bulls-bears


French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in a speech laying out his G20 agenda on Monday that the world's top economies must agree new measures to curb volatility in commodity markets or risk destabilizing food riots.

Speaking to some 300 diplomats and journalists in the Elysee presidential palace, Mr. Sarkozy also voiced support for a tax on financial transactions, calling such a move a "moral question" but admitting the idea had many enemies.

"We want regulation of primary commodity financial markets," said Mr. Sarkozy, who holds the rotating 2011 presidency of the Group of 20, a grouping of the world's leading rich and developing economies.

"How can you explain that we regulate money markets and not commodities?

"If we don't do anything we run the risk of food riots in the poorest countries and a very unfavorable effect on global economic growth," he said. "The day there are food riots, what country at the G20 table will say this does not concern them? I don't see a single one."

Mr. Sarkozy has a three-pronged agenda for France's G20 presidency, including tackling volatility in commodity prices, exploring changes to the world monetary system and reforming global economic governance.

He has been meeting with fellow G20 leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama and China's Hu Jintao, in recent weeks to win support for his plans and assess what France can realistically achieve during its presidency.

Mr. Sarkozy appears to have garnered little support for his idea to establish a new Bretton Woods system, the monetary order set up on the ashes of World War Two which relies heavily on the U.S. dollar.

"France does not wish to call the role of the dollar into question," he said on Monday in a tacit acknowledgement of strong resistance from Washington.

His suggestions for creating a permanent institutional framework for the G20, parallel to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, have also failed to gain traction, shifting the focus of his G20 presidency to commodities -- a theme that is also seen as a potential vote winner in next year's French presidential election.

FRANCE BLAMES SPECULATORS

Wheat prices in Europe nearly doubled in 2010, while a global economic rebound helped push oil prices nearly 30% higher in the last four months of 2010 alone.

France, the European Union's biggest grain producer, has blamed financial speculation for contributing to soaring commodity prices, although analysts are divided over whether this has played as significant a role as economic fundamentals in driving price levels.

Policymakers are concerned that rising food prices could stoke inflation, protectionism and the kind of unrest that has been seen in Tunisia and Algeria in recent weeks.

High food prices could also hit consumer spending in fast-growing emerging countries that are leading the revival of the global economy.

"Shortage fuels speculation and speculation fuels shortage," Mr. Sarkozy said, making clear France wanted to regulate markets in commodity derivatives, not kill them. "There's no market without rules. This is a truly key issue," he said.

Last month, the EU commissioner in charge of financial reform Michel Barnier proposed a clampdown on commodities speculators, following Washington which has acted to prevent spikes in food prices.

Mr. Barnier, a former French agriculture minister, wants traders to disclose their trading positions, a cap on large trades and new powers for regulators to intervene to curb speculation.

Mr. Sarkozy's popularity is hovering near record lows at around 30% and he desperately needs results from his G20 presidency to convince a skeptical electorate that he deserves another five-year term.



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