| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
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USD/CAD
Support: 0.9728
Resistance: 0.9825
CAD/JPY
Support: 82.07
Resistance: 83.48
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.3858 Resistance: 1.3966
EUR/USD
Support: 1.4172 Resistance: 1.4279
GBP/USD
Support: 1.6344 Resistance: 1.6441
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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY
EUR:
The Euro rally from 1.3955/70 support area last week, extended to fresh 2011 highs above 1.4200 yesterday and the pair has stalled below 1.4240/50 during latest sessions, ahead of 14-month high 1.4280.
USD: With the majority of key U.S. data due out commencing tomorrow and further into the week....the markets will continue to keep their eyes on the geo-political problems in Africa, Middle East and Japan. We will see once again...choppy levels...as there has been no clear trend for the USD/CAD. At 10am...House Price index due..if positive..may give more support for a bearish trend on the USD.
I still believe that the Libyan crisis will drag on...alot of the media is questioning the cause...and what about "humanitarian reasons" for this attack against Libya....Rwanda..many countries in the world have a worse off dictator yet the U.N. has done nothing to improve their situations.
If this war continues in Libya, the U.S. will increase their deficit and funding into this battle...not good for the "taxpayers" of the U.S.
CAD: Commodities had fallen slightly...and earlier this morning's CAD - Retail sales data..came out very negative. The USD/CAD propped up to the 0.9800 level ..since then..fell back slightly.
Although Canada may have a strong fiscal policy...we are not a "one man island"....we depend too much on the U.S....and sooner or later...the Loonie will weaken. Our productivity via exports cannot grow...will we see the B.O.C intervene this year to sell the CAD???
Once again good buying opportunities...Our orders from our clients to buy in @ higher 0.9700 lvls..for sellers... some orders are for lower 0.9800 range..similar to yesterday.
Today's range .. similar to yesterday possible lower 0.9700 to possibly lower 0.9800
GBP: The Pound has rallied further on London session, favored by upbeat industrial output and higher than expected inflation figures, breaking through 1.6340 to reach 1.6400, the highest price since January 2010.
JPY: The Dollar Yen recovery from 76.20 low last week, the lowest level since WW II, extended after Friday's G7 intervention, and the pair capped at 82.00 has remained consolidating between 80.75/80 and 81.30 so far this week.
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" G7 intervention of yen totalled $6.5 billion USD "....
" the market is still concerned about possible intervention ".....
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The Group of Seven (G7) countries may have sold a total of around 530 billion yen ($6.5 billion U.S.) on Friday as they intervened in forex markets to weaken the currency, data from the Bank of Japan showed on Tuesday.
The amount is far smaller than market talk that they could have sold around 2 trillion yen, though some analysts said the figure was not a surprise.
“My impression is that the dollar rose smoothly in light trading volume on Friday,” said Osamu Takashima, chief FX analyst at Citibank Japan.
“In September, when Japan unilaterally intervened, there was heavy dollar selling to counter intervention. Compared to that, trading volume looked smaller this time.”
Any yen the BOJ and other central banks sold for dollars would be paid into banks on Wednesday as currency trades are settled two business days after transactions and the country’s markets were closed for a holiday on Monday.
The BOJ’s projection for Wednesday’s money markets showed there would be ¥830-billion in payments to banks from the public sector. That is ¥530-billion more than the about ¥300-billion of payments from the government that money brokers had been expecting ahead of intervention.
Market players say the difference between their expectations and the projection is likely to indicate how much yen G7 central banks sold on Friday, although money broker estimates are ballpark figures with a margin for error.
The G7 countries intervened jointly to stem the yen’s strength on Friday -- their first co-ordinated currency intervention in more than a decade -- after the yen soared to a record high of 76.25 yen per dollar .
The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and European Central Bank, each separately confirmed they intervened to keep the yen’s value from climbing, though the BOJ’s intervention was thought to be by far the largest.
“I don’t think the market feels the commitment of intervention is weak despite the amount coming in much smaller than expected,” said Junya Tanase, forex strategist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in Tokyo.
“I don’t think the market will start selling (the dollar) after seeing this result. The market is still concerned about possible intervention.”
Many analysts think co-ordinated intervention is more powerful than unilateral moves because it sends a strong message that those who participate in intervention share a common view on markets.
Juergen Stark, who heads the ECB’s influential economics unit, said on Tuesday that G7 members were willing to repeat last week’s intervention if Japan decided it was necessary.
Friday’s intervention marked the first time Japan had intervened since Sept. 15, when it sold ¥2.12-trillion, a record daily amount.
The Ministry of Finance will announce on March 31 how much it spent on currency market intervention in March.
" CAD- Retail sales numbers drop in January "..
" more evidence the Canadian economy is still having trouble fully recovering from the global crisis " ...
Canadian retail sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.3 per cent in January from December, pushed down by lower sales at new car dealers, Statistics Canada data indicated Tuesday.
It was the second decline in a row and contrasted with the 1-per-cent rise forecast by market operators. It also provided more evidence the Canadian economy is still having trouble fully recovering from the global crisis.
Sales at new car dealers fell by 1.7 per cent, helping drag down the motor vehicles and part dealers subsector by 1.5 per cent. Sales at gas stations dropped by 1.4 per cent, the first such decline since June 2010.
Furniture and home furnishing stores reported a 2.3 per cent decline in January. The largest increase in terms of value came in the food and beverage subsector, which rose by 0.7 per cent.
Sales were off in seven of 11 subsectors, representing 55 per cent of total retail sales, and fell in four major provinces, which account for 85 per cent of total retail sales. Sales excluding autos and parts were flat, while sales in volume terms dropped by 0.6 per cent.
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| Main USD/CAD data today: |
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1. USD - House price index data.
2. CAD - Retail sales & leading indicators data.
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