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" Flaherty ready for 'tough decisions' regarding fiscal policy .."
"We still have to watch what's happening in the world, and be careful to preserve this modest recovery... "
The
country’s top financial policymakers warned Canadians on Sunday to
brace for tough decisions and “very big challenges” ahead as Canada
tries to secure its recovery in an ever-changing global economic
landscape. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty — set to deliver a
key speech on federal economic policy in Oakville, Ont., on Monday —
said the Conservative government is determined to cap program spending
so Canada can return to a balanced budget position and avoid the turmoil
Europe is undergoing. He acknowledges this won’t be a popular decision, with certain segments of the population and his political opponents. “We
have to make sure we protect the country going forward,” he said in a
TV interview. “Look at what’s happening elsewhere … like the issues they
are dealing with over the weekend in Ireland. We don’t want to get into
any fiscal trouble in Canada. “We still have to watch
what’s happening in the world, and be careful that we preserve this
modest recovery,” the Finance Minister added. “And that means we cannot
act in any sort of extreme or dramatic way.” The government
has forecast returning to a balanced budget by 2016, through reducing
spending growth in key areas and allowing the two-year, $48-billlion
stimulus plan to expire as planned at the end of this fiscal year. His
speech in Oakville is expected to draw clear boundaries for his
political opponents about what the minority government will and won’t
undertake in the next federal budget, to be tabled early next year. Meanwhile,
Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned there are “some very big
challenges” ahead for the global economy set to play out over the next
several years. “There are stresses in the global system
without question, and they are going to take years to play out and
policy decisions are going to continue to matter,” Mr. Carney said in a
radio interview. “There are ways to get this right, and ways to get this
wrong.” The global economy has reached a rather precarious
spot, as the recovery slows, Europe’s debt woes re-emerge, and
inflation threatens the growth-engine in the increasingly vital emerging
economies. In addition, there are heightened tensions among struggling
advanced economies and faster-growing emerging markets over
foreign-exchange policy, prompting countries to intervene in order to
cap the appreciation in their currencies. Group of 20
members met this month in Seoul but failed to come to an agreement on
dealing with the currencies issue. “We didn’t make as much progress
quite frankly as we had hoped,” Mr. Flaherty said. Mr.
Carney also stressed the need for global policymakers to instill
additional market discipline on banks by removing so-called “moral
hazard” from the system, in which the private sector relies on
governments to save lenders that get in trouble due to excess risk
taking. “We have to get rid of that,” the central bank governor said. He
also debunked reports that Royal Bank of Canada was on a list of banks
deemed by global banking authorities to be too big to fail. Mr. Carney
said Canada’s biggest bank was “not on that list,” as compiled by the
Financial Stability Board.
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"U.S. and China's currency battles can have damaging effects on the Canadian economy.."
"The U.S. and China are the two governments that are causing the biggest distortions in the private markets.."
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Canada is threatened by the double-punch of the Federal Reserve's latest
stimulus program and China's continued moves to hold down the value of
its currency, a PIMCO official warns.
"The U.S. and China are the two governments that are causing the biggest
distortions in the private markets," Ed Devlin wrote on the company's
website. "While expressing it in different ways, they both have the same
policy: our currency, your problem."
The Fed has been criticized for its latest program of quantitative
easing, popularly known now as QE2 and defended by Ben Bernanke and
other officials of the U.S. central bank. It aims to boost the economy
by driving down longer-term interest rates, through purchases of
longer-term Treasuries, but there are fears the U.S. dollar is being
debased. China, too, has been roundly criticized for keeping its yuan
artificially low.
"How does the Fed's QE2 and China's currency interventions threaten Canada?" Mr. Devlin said.
"The fundamental threat is that government interventions by the U.S. and
China translate into distorted prices that subsequently change the
behaviour of Canadian consumers and businesses. They may lead to
misallocated resources (both capital and labour) and a lower standard of
living for Canadians."
Douglas Porter, the deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, noted
in a separate report that while Canada is still running a moderate trade
surplus with its biggest trading partner, the U.S., its deficit with
China has "widened relentlessly" to more than $30-billion, or about half
of the overall external shortfall. That, he added, is "reinforcing the point that an undervalued yuan is certainly not just an issue for the U.S. to deal with."
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| Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY
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EUR: The Euro recovery from 1.3630 area on Friday has been capped at 1.3785 on
European session and the pair, weighed but debt contagion fears amid
Eurozone countries, and equity markets in red, has plunged below 1.3700
to return to 1.3630 area so far.
USD: Equity and commodity markets earlier during European sessions, were bearish USD...currently...heading a minor bullish direction.
CAD: Commodities are slightly down...overall a good day for buyers of the USD.
Today's range from higher 1.0100 to possibly reaching 1.0200..
GBP: The Pound's recovery from Friday's low at 1.5935 has been capped again at
1.6100 area, and the pair has given away gains, as market sentiment
deteriorated on fears about Eurozone debt contagion, plunging below
1.600 to hit session low at 1.5950 so far.
JPY: Dollar recovery from 80.20 lows on early November was capped on Thursday
at 83.80, and after a mild pullback to 83.10 on Friday, the Dollar
bounced up to consolidate between 83.35 and 83.55 on Monday's Asian and
European sessions.
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| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP
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USD/CAD
Support: 1.0102 Resistance: 1.0220
CAD/JPY
Support: 81.65 Resistance: 82.59
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.3765 Resistance: 1.3957
EUR/USD
Support: 1.3560 Resistance: 1.3751
GBP/USD
Support: 1.5900 Resistance: 1.6052
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| Main USD/CAD data today: |
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1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.
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