Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 142         www.taheriexchange.com   22nd of November 2010
worldfx

" Flaherty ready for 'tough decisions' regarding fiscal policy .."

"We still have to watch what's happening in the world, and be careful to preserve this modest recovery... "


The country’s top financial policymakers warned Canadians on Sunday to brace for tough decisions and “very big challenges” ahead as Canada tries to secure its recovery in an ever-changing global economic landscape.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty — set to deliver a key speech on federal economic policy in Oakville, Ont., on Monday — said the Conservative government is determined to cap program spending so Canada can return to a balanced budget position and avoid the turmoil Europe is undergoing.

He acknowledges this won’t be a popular decision, with certain segments of the population and his political opponents.

“We have to make sure we protect the country going forward,” he said in a TV interview. “Look at what’s happening elsewhere … like the issues they are dealing with over the weekend in Ireland. We don’t want to get into any fiscal trouble in Canada.

“We still have to watch what’s happening in the world, and be careful that we preserve this modest recovery,” the Finance Minister added. “And that means we cannot act in any sort of extreme or dramatic way.”

The government has forecast returning to a balanced budget by 2016, through reducing spending growth in key areas and allowing the two-year, $48-billlion stimulus plan to expire as planned at the end of this fiscal year.

His speech in Oakville is expected to draw clear boundaries for his political opponents about what the minority government will and won’t undertake in the next federal budget, to be tabled early next year.

Meanwhile, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned there are “some very big challenges” ahead for the global economy set to play out over the next several years.

“There are stresses in the global system without question, and they are going to take years to play out and policy decisions are going to continue to matter,” Mr. Carney said in a radio interview. “There are ways to get this right, and ways to get this wrong.”

The global economy has reached a rather precarious spot, as the recovery slows, Europe’s debt woes re-emerge, and inflation threatens the growth-engine in the increasingly vital emerging economies. In addition, there are heightened tensions among struggling advanced economies and faster-growing emerging markets over foreign-exchange policy, prompting countries to intervene in order to cap the appreciation in their currencies.

Group of 20 members met this month in Seoul but failed to come to an agreement on dealing with the currencies issue. “We didn’t make as much progress quite frankly as we had hoped,” Mr. Flaherty said.

Mr. Carney also stressed the need for global policymakers to instill additional market discipline on banks by removing so-called “moral hazard” from the system, in which the private sector relies on governments to save lenders that get in trouble due to excess risk taking.

“We have to get rid of that,” the central bank governor said.

He also debunked reports that Royal Bank of Canada was on a list of banks deemed by global banking authorities to be too big to fail. Mr. Carney said Canada’s biggest bank was “not on that list,” as compiled by the Financial Stability Board.




"U.S. and China's currency battles can have damaging effects on the Canadian economy.."

 "The U.S. and China are the two governments that are causing the biggest distortions in the private markets.."
bulls-bears
Canada is threatened by the double-punch of the Federal Reserve's latest stimulus program and China's continued moves to hold down the value of its currency, a PIMCO official warns.

"The U.S. and China are the two governments that are causing the biggest distortions in the private markets," Ed Devlin wrote on the company's website. "While expressing it in different ways, they both have the same policy: our currency, your problem."

The Fed has been criticized for its latest program of quantitative easing, popularly known now as QE2 and defended by Ben Bernanke and other officials of the U.S. central bank. It aims to boost the economy by driving down longer-term interest rates, through purchases of longer-term Treasuries, but there are fears the U.S. dollar is being debased. China, too, has been roundly criticized for keeping its yuan artificially low.

"How does the Fed's QE2 and China's currency interventions threaten Canada?" Mr. Devlin said.

"The fundamental threat is that government interventions by the U.S. and China translate into distorted prices that subsequently change the behaviour of Canadian consumers and businesses. They may lead to misallocated resources (both capital and labour) and a lower standard of living for Canadians."

Douglas Porter, the deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, noted in a separate report that while Canada is still running a moderate trade surplus with its biggest trading partner, the U.S., its deficit with China has "widened relentlessly" to more than $30-billion, or about half of the overall external shortfall.

That, he added, is "reinforcing the point that an undervalued yuan is certainly not just an issue for the U.S. to deal with."

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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro recovery from 1.3630 area on Friday has been capped at 1.3785 on European session and the pair, weighed but debt contagion fears amid Eurozone countries, and equity markets in red, has plunged below 1.3700 to return to 1.3630 area so far.

USD:   Equity and commodity markets earlier during European sessions, were bearish USD...currently...heading a minor bullish direction.

CAD:  Commodities are slightly down...overall a good day for buyers of the USD.

Today's range from higher 1.0100 to possibly reaching 1.0200..

GBP:  The Pound's recovery from Friday's low at 1.5935 has been capped again at 1.6100 area, and the pair has given away gains, as market sentiment deteriorated on fears about Eurozone debt contagion, plunging below 1.600 to hit session low at 1.5950 so far.


JPY:   Dollar recovery from 80.20 lows on early November was capped on Thursday at 83.80, and after a mild pullback to 83.10 on Friday, the Dollar bounced up to consolidate between 83.35 and 83.55 on Monday's Asian and European sessions.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.0102   Resistance: 1.0220

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.65   Resistance:  82.59

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3765  Resistance: 1.3957

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3560  Resistance: 1.3751

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5900  Resistance: 1.6052

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