Inflation
was softer than expected in August, data revealed Tuesday, leading
analysts to suggest it may persuade the Bank of Canada to hold interest
rates steady in the coming months.
The headline inflation rate
was 1.7% in August on a year-over-year basis, Statistics Canada said,
while month-over-month consumer prices slipped 0.1%. Meanwhile, the
core rate -- which strips out volatile-priced items such as food and
energy -- remained unchanged at 1.6% in the month.
Market consensus was for a headline rate of 1.9% and a core reading of 1.7% in August.
The
figures indicate inflation poses no threat to the economy, and at
present consumer price increases are running below the Bank of Canada’s
forecast. For instance, analysts indicate the core rate -- which the
central bank closely watches because it excludes volatility -- will
come in lower than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for 1.8% in the third
quarter of 2010.
This has analysts suggesting the Canadian
central bank might refrain from raising its benchmark rate again at its
next meeting on Oct. 19.
The central bank sets its policy rate in an effort to attain and maintain 2% inflation.
“This
report clearly indicates that inflation is becoming a swing factor for
Bank of Canada. And it supports our view that the Bank of Canada will
be on hold for some time,” said Jonathan Basile, vice-president of
economics at Credit Suisse in New York.
In seasonally adjusted
terms, core prices were flat in August, and the six-month trend has
ebbed to a mere 0.3% annualized rate -- which is the lowest pace in
over 25 years of data, said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at
BMO Capital Markets.
“Inflation remains well under wraps in
Canada,” he said. “If anything, some measures of core inflation trends
are even lower than in the United States, where deflation chatter is
rampant.”
As of Tuesday morning, markets had priced in roughly
66% odds that the Bank of Canada sits on the sidelines next month.
Following the release of the consumer price data, the Canadian dollar
sold off and yields at the short-end of the bond curve dropped.
The
Bank of Canada has raised rates by 25 basis points at each of its last
three meetings, as Canada recovered strongly from the recession.
However, growth has ebbed as of late, due to a slowdown in the U.S. and
global economies. Second-quarter GDP expansion was 2% annualized, down
from the 5.8% reading in the first three months of 2010.
The soft
inflation reading also suggested there still remains “significant
amount” of excess capacity in the Canadian economy, said
Toronto-Dominion Bank economists in a note.
Any further cool
down in economic growth could put pressure on retailers to cut prices
further to attract buyers -- particularly on big-ticket items such as
cars, added TD economist Diana Petramala.
The inflation data
indicated energy prices rose 5% year-over-year, following a 7.9%
increase during the 12-month period to July. Excluding energy, the
headline inflation was up 1.4% in August.
Homeowner’s replacement
costs, which rose 5.5%, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, up 5.1%,
and food from restaurants, which was up 2.5%, also pushed the inflation
rate higher. However, consumers paid 2.2% less for clothing and
footwear in August than they did a year earlier.