Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 101         www.taheriexchange.com   22nd of September 2010
worldfx

"Inflation results may keep B.O.C from raising rates till the end of 2010 "..

"This report clearly indicates that inflation is becoming a swing factor for Bank of Canada.."


Inflation was softer than expected in August, data revealed Tuesday, leading analysts to suggest it may persuade the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates steady in the coming months.

The headline inflation rate was 1.7% in August on a year-over-year basis, Statistics Canada said, while month-over-month consumer prices slipped 0.1%. Meanwhile, the core rate -- which strips out volatile-priced items such as food and energy -- remained unchanged at 1.6% in the month.

Market consensus was for a headline rate of 1.9% and a core reading of 1.7% in August.

The figures indicate inflation poses no threat to the economy, and at present consumer price increases are running below the Bank of Canada’s forecast. For instance, analysts indicate the core rate -- which the central bank closely watches because it excludes volatility -- will come in lower than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for 1.8% in the third quarter of 2010.

This has analysts suggesting the Canadian central bank might refrain from raising its benchmark rate again at its next meeting on Oct. 19.

The central bank sets its policy rate in an effort to attain and maintain 2% inflation.

“This report clearly indicates that inflation is becoming a swing factor for Bank of Canada. And it supports our view that the Bank of Canada will be on hold for some time,” said Jonathan Basile, vice-president of economics at Credit Suisse in New York.

In seasonally adjusted terms, core prices were flat in August, and the six-month trend has ebbed to a mere 0.3% annualized rate -- which is the lowest pace in over 25 years of data, said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“Inflation remains well under wraps in Canada,” he said. “If anything, some measures of core inflation trends are even lower than in the United States, where deflation chatter is rampant.”

As of Tuesday morning, markets had priced in roughly 66% odds that the Bank of Canada sits on the sidelines next month. Following the release of the consumer price data, the Canadian dollar sold off and yields at the short-end of the bond curve dropped.

The Bank of Canada has raised rates by 25 basis points at each of its last three meetings, as Canada recovered strongly from the recession. However, growth has ebbed as of late, due to a slowdown in the U.S. and global economies. Second-quarter GDP expansion was 2% annualized, down from the 5.8% reading in the first three months of 2010.

The soft inflation reading also suggested there still remains “significant amount” of excess capacity in the Canadian economy, said Toronto-Dominion Bank economists in a note.

Any further cool down in economic growth could put pressure on retailers to cut prices further to attract buyers -- particularly on big-ticket items such as cars, added TD economist Diana Petramala.

The inflation data indicated energy prices rose 5% year-over-year, following a 7.9% increase during the 12-month period to July. Excluding energy, the headline inflation was up 1.4% in August.

Homeowner’s replacement costs, which rose 5.5%, passenger vehicle insurance premiums, up 5.1%, and food from restaurants, which was up 2.5%, also pushed the inflation rate higher. However, consumers paid 2.2% less for clothing and footwear in August than they did a year earlier.




"CAD- Retail Sales weaker than expected in July.."

 "Furniture and home furnishing stores had the largest decrease.."

bulls-bears

Canada's consumption comprised by Statistics Canada translated in a Retail Sales indicator ticking down to -0.1% from a previous revised of 0.0% in spite of expectations of a rise to 0.4%. Excluding automobiles, the indicator improved from a previous revised -0.6% to -0.4%, widely missing the forecast of 0.5%.

The official release points to the main culprit: "The largest decrease among the subsectors was registered at furniture and home furnishing stores, where sales fell 8.4%. This decline comes after sales had been trending upward over the past year and a half. Sales at home furnishings stores were mainly responsible for this decline, reporting a drop of 15.0% Furniture store sales were down 4.5%."

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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro has soared on European session extending its rally to a fresh 5-month high at 1.3395, with technical indicators reaching overbought levels in all timeframes.


USD: 
Yesterday's Fed commentary saw the USD/CAD drop down to the lower 1.0200 levels...the weakness on the USD continued thru Asian and European sessions. The Fed stated that they may put more "stimulus" into the economy. The question remains...will the quantatitive easing truly be a cure for a lagging or stagnating economy?

Tomorrow's Initial Jobless claims will cause more movement on this pair. Currently the USD/CAD is trending in a bullish direction.


CAD:  The USD/CAD dropped to the higher 1.0100 levels...before the CAD Retail Sales figures came out. Weak data from Canada..strengthened the USD...and expected range today will be from lower 1.0200 to lower 1.0300 levels.


GBP:  The Pound has taken back most of the ground lost after the release of BoE minutes, as retreat from 1.5715 found support at the 100-hour SMA 1.5615, to bounce up, favoured by overall Dollar weakness, to reach 1.5700 area.

JPY:
   The Dollar weakened across the board after Fed's statement, reaching, against the Yen, its lowest levels since BoJ's intervention, breaking below 85.20 support area, to consolidate on Asian session at levels below 85.00.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0217   Resistance: 1.0331

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.54   Resistance:  83.06  

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3622  Resistance: 1.3827

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3261  Resistance: 1.3494

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5536  Resistance: 1.5713

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- House Price Index data.
CAD - Retail Sales data.

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