Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 187         www.taheriexchange.com   26th of January 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9897        Resistance: 1.0005

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.91        Resistance:  82.83

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3549     Resistance:  1.3715

EUR/USD

Support:  1.3600     Resistance:  1.3742

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5811     Resistance:  1.5922

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:   The Euro is trading higher on Early European session as the pair's recovery from yesterday's low at 1.3570 has extended above 1.3700 resistance ares, supported by positive equity markets, to hit fresh 2-month highs at 1.3715.


USD:   Markets awaiting Fed's commentary today pertaining to the economy via the FOMC meeting minutes. Although Obama's "State of Union" address made alot of promises..markets are not entirely convinced. At 10am this morning, New home sales data is due out of the U.S...this may move the markets slightly...overall the Fed's comments are going to provide clear direction for the USD today.

Currently, the USD/CAD is trading in tight ranges....

CAD:   Commodity and equity markets are continuing the same pace as yesterday...all eyes on the Fed's comments today. The pair is in the mid 0.9900 range..similar to yesterday. Will the USD/CAD continue it's bearish trend or reverse and become bullish?

Another good day for buyers and sellers of the USD.

Expected range today..possible higher 0.9800 to 1.0000 levels.

GBP:   The Pound's sell off from 1.6000 witnessed yesterday found support at 1.5750, and after having consolidated over the Asian session, the Pound is pushing higher on European trading, supported by hawkish BoE minutes to returns to levels right below 1.5900.


JPY:    The USD/JPY has remained within a relatively tight range throughout the day, finding firm support to remain to the upside of 82.00 while capped above at 82.30. The pair currently quotes in close range to the daily max at 82.25, awaiting fresh direction over the NY session ahead of the highly anticipated Fed rate decision.

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worldfx

" Economists views on Obama's speech last night...  "....

" The bond vigilanted have not yet woken up in the U.S. in the way they have in the euro zone".....

Some economists believe President Barack Obama's proposals don't go far enough, and are vague at this point. Here's what some are saying today:

"I would think that any bond investor who watched President Obama's State of the Union address last evening would have been disappointed. One likely came away thinking that the speech set a low bar on deficit reduction targets, and deflected much of the attention away from deficits by going back to the future in attempting to find a common cause against which to rally national economic pride after the dent it has taken in recent years ... That debate will have to become more focused on a credible long-run deficit reduction plan with some meat to it, and less focused on pie-in-the-sky ambitions." Derek Holt, economist, Scotia Capital

"What really matters from our point of view is whether this is a credible basis for fiscal consolidation, and one that can find agreement from both sides of the U.S. political spectrum. Considering that we are essentially in an election cycle, it is much more likely that the president’s opponents seize upon the proposals as too little or incorrectly targeted. It wouldn’t make political sense for opponents to support a proposal and allow the President to score points moving into an election, meaning that whatever chance the US. .has at legitimate fiscal consolidation will have to wait until the next government (whatever its political leaning) is in place." Sacha Tihanyi, currency strategist, Scotia Capital

"Plans for a $400-billion deficit reduction over 10 years was seen as soft in the context of the size of the deficit. Meantime, there was some disappointment for [U.S. dollar] bulls that Obama offered nothing concrete in regards a corporate tax holiday, asking only that the Democrats and Republicans simplify the system and use the savings to lower the corporate tax rate." Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist, Royal Bank of Canada

“The bond vigilantes have not yet woken up in the U.S. in the way they have in the euro zone. Unless the U.S. addresses this fiscal problem, we’re going to see a train wreck.” Nouriel Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, to Bloomberg Television


" Global markets rising earlier this morning.. .."..

" Markets are in a good mood this morning ".....

bulls-bears


Global markets are picking up this morning, buoyed partly by President Barack Obama’s proposals in last night’s State of the Union address to juice economic growth and create jobs. Also putting investors in a better mood were stronger signals from Europe.

Investors were also awaiting the outcome of the two-day meeting at the Federal Reserve, where policy makers on the rate-setting panel, the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC, were expected to make no major changes.

“Markets are in a good mood this morning with U.S. equity futures pointing to a firm open ahead of more earnings results and this afternoon’s FOMC announcement,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns economist Robert Kavcic.

“President Obama delivered his State of the Union address last night and among the more concrete highlights were a proposed five-year freeze on domestic, non-security related spending that would save $400-billion over the next decade, and a call to lower corporate tax rates along with the closing of tax loopholes.”


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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- FOMC meeting minutes and New home sales data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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