Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 146         www.taheriexchange.com   26th of November 2010
worldfx

" Eurozone officials contemplating to increase continent's bailout fund .."

"discussions around boosting size of Europe's bailout fund reflect growing anxiety in Europe... "


European finance officials are contemplating whether to expand the continent’s bailout fund, already heavily tapped to save Greece and Ireland from financial disaster.

Fears are growing that the existing rescue fund wouldn’t provide sufficient support if Europe’s fiscal woes spread to larger economies such as Spain. The European Union’s executive arm is pushing for Germany to backstop a doubling of the €750-billion ($1-trillion) fund – which was established in May by the EU and International Monetary Fund to bolster confidence in the euro zone’s government finances at the height of the Greek crisis – according to reports.

Discussions around boosting the size of Europe’s bailout fund reflect growing anxiety in Europe, following the €85-billion rescue package put in place this week for Ireland. Bond markets remain unsteady as investors fear some other countries won’t able to reduce budget deficits and debt burdens fast enough as they finance spending amid sluggish economic growth. For that reason, European officials are eager to instill confidence that the bailout fund is large enough to assist other nations if needed.

Any move to boost Europe’s bailout fund would also take German voters down a road they were once assured would never be travelled, as the continent increasingly looks to that country’s economic and fiscal health for support.

European and German officials denied reports in The Wall Street Journal and German newspaper Die Welt that any plan to double the bailout fund is in the works. And late Thursday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, after a phone conversation with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, said the size of the fund would not be changed until at least 2013, the deadline by which a more permanent mechanism for dealing with crises like these is supposed to be set up.

European Central Bank council member Axel Weber, however, said governments could increase the size of the fund if necessary, but the fund would need only an extra €140-billion in the worst-case scenario.

Mr. Weber’s comments came as Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen was in the first stages of a furious push to sell voters and lawmakers on a four-year austerity plan that was required to secure support from the EU and IMF to keep the erstwhile Celtic Tiger’s banking sector from imploding, and as observers brace for a possible Portuguese rescue.

The mixed messaging underscores the conundrum in which Germany’s leaders find themselves, as voters in Europe’s economic engine become angrier and more resentful by the day about having to underwrite weaker EU cousins whose fiscal habits might as well put them in another solar system. German voters were assured more than a decade ago when they adopted the euro that those who didn’t quickly find fiscal religion would be left to suffer the consequences.

Mindful of the political dynamic, Ms. Merkel inadvertently fanned the flames of the Irish debt crisis recently by re-emphasizing that bondholders should be prepared to take losses when investments go sour. The comment made investors dump government securities not only from Ireland but also from Greece, Portugal and Spain, which sent yields soaring and turned a simmering problem into a virtual replay of the Greek drama that played out earlier this year.

“If she says, ‘Look, everybody, we’re going to make sure that people share in the burden and other people including the investors will be paying the tab for these bailouts,’ that in and of itself makes the crisis worse and spreads the contagion,” said Ian Lee, MBA director at Carleton University's Sprott School of Business, who has focused much of his research in the past year on the sovereign and bank debt problems in Europe. “But she can’t say the opposite, because German public opinion is more and more strongly opposed to these bailouts.”

To be sure, Ms. Merkel has clearly realized that some of her earlier comments weren’t helping the wider situation. Earlier this week she declared that questions swirling around the euro were “exceptionally serious.” On Thursday she said Germany is ready to “act in solidarity” to help preserve the continent’s single currency.

Also, she clarified Thursday that she envisioned private investors sharing the burden of future debt crises from 2013 onward, and no sooner.

“It does appear there’s an attempt by Germany to really try to soothe markets, which is good because it implies there’s an understanding of just how powerful the confidence of markets can be in this type of situation,” said Camilla Sutton, a currency strategist with Scotia Capital.

Market confidence, however, seems to be the farthest thing from the minds of German taxpayers these days.


"CAD drops due to continual Eurozone worries.."

 "Portugal and Ireland bailouts continue to plague Europe.."
bulls-bears

The Canadian dollar is sharply lower as worries continue to grow over European debt, and commodities pull back.

The loonie opened at 97.82 cents (U.S.), down 1.22 cents from Thursday's close. Other major currencies also moved lower.

Reports that suggest Portugal's partners in the European Union were urging the country to seek aid to prevent a sustained attack from bond market speculators.

Meanwhile, other reports say that an international bailout loan for Ireland could include an effort to make Ireland's senior bondholders — chiefly foreign banks — eat losses in the country's debt-crippled banks.

Key commodities were also lower in electronic trading as Wall Street prepared to resume trading after the Thanksgiving break.

Oil was down 77 cents at $83.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the December gold contract backed off $12 to US$1361 an ounce.


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The old continent is living a black Friday today, as borrowing costs for Europe’s most indebted nations are at record highs after Ireland’s capitulation in accepting a bailout of its banking sector, while markets are overloaded with rumors or more countries ready to seek aid included Belgium. Spain troubled banking sector is on the wires also as central bank governor Ariziegui calls for more transparency from banks adding that savings banks’ restructuring must not suffer any delays.

EUR/USD fell to 1.3200 and remains close to the level, quoting right now barely above it; stocks and commodity sinking to fresh daily lows hour after hour are in fact, reinforcing the bearish momentum of the common currency that will have a hard time finding a bottom today.

USD:  Today traders are back at their positions...and we see a reverse bullish trend due to Eurozone worries. The USD/CAD currently in the mid 1.0200 levels. 

Awaiting North American equity markets reaction to the eurozone worries, will the bullish trend continue?

CAD:  Commodity and equity markets are on a decline, the parity levels will not be reached today. Will we see the USD/CAD trend to the 1.0300 levels today?

Overall...good rates for sellers of the USD today.

Today's range USD/CAD...mid 1.0100 to possibly touching 1.0300 levels

GBP:  Dollar soared against Pound that extended its slide against the greenback to a fresh 2-month low at 1.5630 as gold slides to a fresh daily low of $ 1356.64. The dollar completes this way a full 4 cents gain against its UK rival during this week. With no fundamental data ahead, forex market is submitted to risk sentiment and stocks movements ahead of Wall Street opening.

JPY:   The USD/JPY retreated from 83.97, 7-week high, found support at the 83.60 zone. Greenback gained momentum and regained the upside, moving close to session highs. Currently trades at 83.85, 0.33% above today’s opening price.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.010   Resistance: 1.0303

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.15   Resistance:  82.73

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3448  Resistance: 1.3617

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3128  Resistance: 1.3283

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5570  Resistance: 1.5710

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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