U.S. economic growth slowed more sharply than initially thought in
the second quarter, held back by the largest increase in imports in 26
years, a government report showed on Friday.
Gross domestic
product expanded at a 1.6% annual rate, the Commerce Department said,
instead of the 2.4% pace it had estimated last month.
However,
the reading was a touch better than market expectations. Analysts
polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and
services output within U.S. borders, revised down to a 1.4% growth
rate.
The economy grew at a 3.7% pace in the first three months of the year.
The
slackening economic recovery is a major political challenge for the
Obama administration and the Democratic Party two months away from
crucial mid-term elections that could shift the balance of power in
Congress in favour of Republicans.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week found Obama’s approval rating at 45% overtaken for the first time by a 52% disapproval rating.
The
revised GDP data will likely fuel analysts’ concern that slowing growth
is putting the economy at growing risk of slipping back into recession.
Federal Reserve policymakers were meeting on Friday at their annual
retreat in Wyoming to ponder the economy’s direction and hear from Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke.
“There is no doubt we are losing momentum
in the economic recovery,” said Robert Dye, senior economist at PNC
Financial Services in Pittsburgh. “But if we define recession as two or
more consecutive declining quarters of GDP, I think we are not going to
go there.
“We are going to see a pattern where we may have
declining GDP in one quarter followed by smaller gains in the next
quarter, bouncing along the bottom as it were,” Dye said.
The
recovery from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression
had been largely fueled by a US$862 billion government stimulus package
and businesses rebuilding inventories from record low levels.
Growth
in the last quarter was stifled by a 32.4% surge in imports, the
largest since the first quarter of 1984, dwarfing a 9.1% rise in
exports. That created a trade deficit, which sliced off 3.37%
percentage points from GDP, the largest subtraction since the fourth
quarter of 1947.
A smaller contribution from business
inventories than initially estimated also restrained output. Business
inventories increased only US$63.2 billion, rather than US$75.7
billion, adding a slim 0.63 percentage points to GDP.
Inventories,
which had been a major driver of the recovery that started in the
second half of 2009, increased US$44.1 billion in the first three
months of the year.
Excluding inventories, the economy expanded at a 1.0% rate, instead of the 1.3% pace reported last month.
There
were some bright spots in the report, with growth in consumer spending
revised up to a 2.0% rates from 1.6%. Consumer spending grew at a 1.9%
rate in the first quarter.
Stubbornly high unemployment has
dampened consumer spending, which normally accounts for 70% of U.S.
economic activity. Spending added 1.38%age points to GDP last quarter.
Although
businesses have been reluctant to hire new workers, they have been
splurging on equipment and software, which also contributed to the
surge in imports. Business investment was revised up to a 17.6% rate,
the largest increase since the first quarter of 2006, from the
previously estimated 17% pace.
Investment in equipment and
software was the strongest since the fourth quarter of 1983. Spending
on structures was revised to show a far smaller increase than
previously estimated but still posted the first rise in spending on
structures since the second quarter of 2008.
Growth in new home
construction was revised down slightly to 27.2% from 27.9%. The sector,
which was a drag on growth in the first quarter, was lifted by a spurt
in building activity spurred by a popular home-buyer tax credit that
has since expired. The rate of increase was still the biggest since the
third quarter of 1983.
Residential investment had contracted at
a 12.3% rate in the first quarter. The GDP also showed corporate
profits rose 2.9% in the second quarter after increasing 5.8% in the
first three months of the year.