Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 104         www.taheriexchange.com   27th of September 2010
worldfx

"Carney has concern over U.S. recovery slowdown "..

"The nature of the slowdown...is particularly concerning for Canada given the concentration in areas such  as housing and autos"


Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney said Friday the slowdown in the U.S. recovery is of “some concern” to the central bank and whatever unfolds will have a “significant” impact on this country’s economy.

In an interview with U.S. business network CNBC, he said the low level of U.S inflation — due to a debt overhang and slowing growth — may prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to take further measures, such as another round of asset purchases.

“We will deal with the consequences” of any Fed decision on so-called additional quantitative easing, said Mr. Carney, in an interview conducted at the Canadian Museum of Civilization in Gatineau, Que.

“We will adjust monetary policy to Canadian circumstances, but there are limits to the divergence that there can be.”

While expressing concern about the tepid pace of U.S. economic growth, he added the central bank is keeping an eye on the record level of household indebtedness — which some analysts have suggested will push the Bank of Canada to continue raising rates even in the face of an economic slowdown.

“We are concerned about the level of household borrowing, yes,” he told the CNBC interviewer. The ratio of debt-to-disposable income among households is at over 140%, or a record high.

Mr. Carney’s comments about the slowing economy emerge after a string of weak economic data, from inflation to retail sales, were released this week. Some analysts are speculating that the Canadian economy may have contracted in July, based on indicators released to date, and that is could slowing at a faster pace than the United States.

The central bank governor said circumstances are different in Canada, as economic output has returned to pre-recession levels and that financial conditions remain “exceptionally accommodative.” This is why the central bank raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points earlier this month, to 1%.

But what was transpiring in the U.S. marketplace — with new home sales stuck at near-record lows — was worrisome and the Bank of Canada would monitor events closely.

“The nature of the slowdown … is particularly concerning for Canada given the concentration in areas such as housing and autos — parts of the economy that are really leveraged to Canada,” the governor said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Carney also addressed the state of global financial reforms, as agreed to by Group of 20 leaders.

He said the coming new banking rules on capital, otherwise known as Basel III, are required to bring stability to financial markets.

“The system was horribly undercapitalized,” he said of the regime that ultimately led to the financial crisis.

And on increased currency flexibility, especially from Asian countries — most notably China — he said that this point, the talk of liberalized exchange-rate policies is more of a “slogan but not a reality.”




"Investors confidence is still uncertain about economic recovery.."

 "We do not believe that the economic precursors to a double dip exist.."

bulls-bears

Are investors scared silly? They are paying such close attention to the macro economic data coming out of the U.S., Europe and Asia that any movement in those numbers sends stocks moving, almost in unison. An improvement in factory orders sends markets up, a decline in housing starts pulls them down. The correlated movement of North American stock prices has rarely been so strong.

The most common explanation for this herd behaviour is fear. Investors’ confidence in the recovery is shaky at best. Perceived havens such as bonds and bullion remain the favoured asset classes.

Some money managers are now saying enough is enough. Looking past the sweeping economic indicators to the fundamentals of major corporations, they see buying opportunities.

In what could turn out to be the clarion call for a rally, David Tepper, the hedge fund manager who made a name and a fortune by betting on U.S. financials at the bottom of the crisis in 2008, told CNBC on Friday: “My animal spirit is awakened.” This time it’s the broader market he likes, because the U.S. Federal Reserve has essentially backstopped the market by saying it will print money to boost the economy if the recovery falters.

“We do not believe that the economic precursors to a double dip exist,” says Daniel Bain, president and chief investment officer of Thornmark Asset Management Inc. in Toronto..

The areas of the economy that traditionally bear the brunt of a recession – durable spending, housing, automotive, capital spending and inventories – are almost all at lows not seen before. “Things could get worse, sure. But we have to look at the whole picture and the economic data isn’t consistent with further slowdown.”

This week, the latest figures measuring U.S. consumer confidence are out Tuesday. Economists expect a slight dip. A final figures for U.S. second-quarter GDP is to be released Thursday morning. Personal outlays and income in August, due Friday, are expected to have crept up 0.3 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively. In Canada, GDP figures for July are scheduled for Thursday, with the consensus expecting a dip o

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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The EUR/USD has been able to recover from daily lows near 1.3425, to return to nearly even on the day. The pair most recently has climbed a fresh 20 pips to test session highs near 1.3480, at which point it is beginning to find slight resistance.


USD: 
Today the markets will be rather thin on trading and choppy at times...overall no significant data. Expect today's range on the USD/CAD to be possibly in the higher 1.0100 levels to lower 1.0200 levels.


CAD:  The CAD will benefit today from no major U.S. data announcements, commodities are performing well. For buyers of the USD...their are great opportunities once again..as we had last week.


GBP:  The Pound extended its recovery from 1.5785 and rose to 1.5850 hitting a fresh 6-week high. GBP/USD failed to rise above 1.5850 and retreated to 1.5835/40. The pair continues to move sideways but holds near daily highs amid a slightly decline of the US Dollar across the board.

The Pound is headed toward an important monthly gain and has risen more than 500 pips since the beginning of September against the Dollar. If GBP/USD ends the month at current levels, it would be posting the highest monthly close since January.

JPY:
  A strong Yen continues to pressure the USD/JPY lower, despite rumors of possible further BoJ intervention measures in the near term. The pair has been steadily creeping lower, most recently finding support around 84.12 before bouncing up to 84.25 once again.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0190   Resistance: 1.0254

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.63   Resistance:  83.07

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3711  Resistance: 1.3863

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3395  Resistance: 1.3581

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5788  Resistance: 1.5910

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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