| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
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USD/CAD
Support: 0.9731
Resistance: 0.9811
CAD/JPY
Support: 82.95
Resistance: 84.17
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.3666 Resistance: 1.3793
EUR/USD
Support: 1.3991 Resistance: 1.4092
GBP/USD
Support: 1.5935 Resistance: 1.6032
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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY
EUR: The Euro retreat from last week highs at 1.4220/40 area extended on Asian session with the pair pulling down to fresh 6-day lows at 1.4020, where support was found, to bounce up and hit resistance at 1.4070 session high.
USD: Although strong Personal Consumption data out of the U.S. today...the USD/CAD continues to move on investors sentiment towards the looming problems in the world. The pair has continued it's bearish trend to start the week..will this trend continue for the rest of the week?
Due out @ 10am Pending Home sales..if positive..expect more of a bearish trend..otherwise...markets will be choppy today...
This week for the U.S., ADP, Inital Jobless claims, ISM manufacturing, Unemployment rate and Non-Farm payrolls..heavy data this week.
CAD: Today, metals and oil...are down.yet equities on a rise...the Loonie is still strong...and currently is the higher 0.9700 lvl. For the CAD this week's GDP data will be the main focus. Otherwise, the "Loonie" will move with the flow of the markets.
Clients orders for today are mid 0.9700 range to buy and sellers are in @ 0.9800 range..similar to last week...
Expected range .. similar to last Friday possible lower 0.9700 to 0.9800.
GBP:
The Pound retreat from last week's high at 1.6400 extended on Monday, after brief consolidation above 1.6000, as the pair pulled lower on early London session, breaking below 1.5960/75 support area to reach fresh 2-month lows at 1.5935.
JPY:
The Dollar pushed higher on Friday, to break above the consolidation range, -80.70/81.30- witnessed during the previous four days, and the upmove extended on Monday's Asian session to a fresh 6-day high at 81.85.
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" Will the federal election affect the ' Loonie' ??? "....
" the focus should reside with the strong sovereign position in Canada and less with political uncertainty ".....
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The volatile currency markets have so far ignored the political uncertainty in Canada. Hey, it’s not like we’re Portugal, where a debt crisis and political void have driven government borrowing costs to fantastic heights and threaten to sink the country.
The federal campaign has only just begun, and anything could happen, but most observers believe the Canadian dollar will hold generally firm throughout, more likely to be moved by global developments and oil prices than by domestic political ones, given Canada’s strong economic and fiscal standing among its peers.
“Though an election campaign is now under way, we expect political developments to have no material impact on [the Canadian dollar],” Elsa Lignos, senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Canada Europe, said today.
“The [Bank of Canada] meeting on 31 May is likely to be fully four weeks after the election, and while it is quite possible that the political situation won’t be clarified by then, it is also possible that the political situation will remain unclear three to four months from now.”
As in the 2008 election, which was called just a week before the collapse of Lehman Bros. drove the world into its ugliest economic period since the Great Depression, many developments are at play in 2011, including Europe’s ever-mounting debt troubles, the uprisings and violence in the Middle East and North Africa, and the devastation and nuclear crisis in Japan.
“Political uncertainty will be a looming question, however the global market has become quite comfortable with Canadian elections, the differences (or lack of) in our parties and a minority government,” said Scotia Capital currency strategist Camilla Sutton.
“Accordingly, we think in the medium term the focus should reside with the strong sovereign position in Canada and less with political uncertainty.”
It wasn’t always thus, based on research by BMO Nesbitt Burns senior economist Michael Gregory, shows the loonie has oft been moved, in either direction, by electioneering and its outcome.
In the 1988 campaign that centred on the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, for example, the loonie initially climbed 0.6 per cent, then slumped by 3.2 per cent, and then shot up again by 2.1 per cent. At the end of the day, it lost 0.6 per cent.
Article provided by The Globe and Mail.
" USD- Personal consumption rose in February "..
" the picture for consumers is that they're spending at a moderate pace " ...
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in February as incomes climbed, helping to bolster the expansion in the world’s largest economy.
Purchases increased 0.7 percent, the most since October, after advancing 0.3 percent the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes increased 0.3 percent, less than projected, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation accelerated.
The U.S. added jobs for the sixth consecutive month in February and the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since April 2009, helping cushion Americans from higher food and fuel prices. Spending is contributing to the recovery, which Fed policy makers say is on a “firmer footing.”
“The picture for consumers is that they’re spending at a moderate pace,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York, who correctly forecast the gain in sales. “We are on a decent pace of expansion.”
Article provided by Bloomberg News.
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| Main USD/CAD data today: |
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1. USD - Pending home sales & Personal income data.
2. CAD - No relevant data.
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