Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 104         www.taheriexchange.com   28th of September 2010
worldfx

"Currency compromise topic on the next G20 meeting in South Korea "..

"The days of global cooperation to achieve internationally shared goals are long past"


Leaders of Group of 20 nations may ease tensions over exchange-rate policies by the end of their November summit, a South Korean official said after Brazil warned of deepening divisions.

“Policy makers are talking over the currency issue and thus I expect they will be able to find a compromise at the Seoul summit,” Sakong Il, chairman of the nation’s presidential committee for the summit, told reporters in Seoul today. He didn’t elaborate on what kind of solution may be found.

Mr. Sakong’s comments come a day after Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said a “currency war” has begun, with nations seeking to cheapen their exchange rates to bolster exports. Japan this month broke a six-year policy by selling yen, joining countries across Asia and Latin America that have tempered gains in their currencies against the dollar in a move that drew criticism from the U.S. and euro area.

“There is a scramble for export competitiveness and that’s going to continue so we’re going to have more comments such as Mantega’s and more central banks intervening,” said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London. “It has to be a subject discussed at G20 but where the meetings of minds will be is very difficult to guess.”

Since G20 leaders began holding summits in November 2008, they have pledged not to raise or impose trade barriers, seeking to avoid the type of protectionist measures that crippled the global economy in the 1930s.

G20 Pledges

The G20 pledged in April 2009 in London to “refrain from competitive devaluation” of their currencies, and the leaders said at their last gathering in Toronto in June that “market- oriented exchange rates that reflect underlying economic fundamentals contribute to global economic stability.” Devaluations were blamed for worsening the Great Depression.

Even so, Mr. Mantega said yesterday said that “we are experiencing a currency war — devaluing currencies artificially is a global strategy.” He added that his government will buy all “excess dollars” in the market to curb the real’s appreciation. “We’re already buying a bigger volume of currency — we’ll keep buying.”

China has incurred international criticism for limiting gains in its exchange rate. The yuan has risen about 2% versus the dollar since the People’s Bank of China in June pledged greater flexibility in the currency after pegging it around 6.83 for two years.

Currency Selling

Asian nations including South Korea and Thailand have also sold their currencies as have Brazil and Switzerland. Japan did so on Sept. 15 after the yen surged to the highest level since 1995 against the dollar, imperiling the exports responsible for more than half of Japan’s economic growth in the second quarter.

“The days of global cooperation to achieve internationally shared goals are long past,” Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Monument Securities in London, said in a research note yesterday. “There must be some danger to the global free trading system.”

Bank of New York Mellon’s Mellor said policy makers are acting to weaken their currencies as the Federal Reserve considers taking more steps to boost the U.S. economy, resulting in a weaker dollar.

“It’s almost inevitable with the Fed’s policy that we’ll have more central banks looking to intervene,” he said. “There are huge forces against the dollar right now.”

ADB’s Call

“Emerging currencies in Asia need to be more flexible and probably need to appreciate against the G-3,” Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda told reporters today in Kuala Lumpur. The G-3 refers to the euro, dollar and yen. “Emerging economies in Asia are really growing fast.”

U.S. lawmakers aim to consider this month legislation allowing American companies to seek protection against imports from nations pursuing misaligned exchange rates.

Former Canadian prime minister Paul Martin also said at the joint press conference in Seoul today that the G-20, as a steering committee for international economic cooperation, has to deal with the currency issue involving the U.S. and China. It’s not just a matter between the two countries, Mr. Martin, also a former finance minister, said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said this month that the Obama administration will use every available tool to urge China to let its currency rise more quickly. Premier Wen Jiabao countered last week that a 20 percent jump in the yuan risks “major” social upheaval and job losses.

European Rebuke

Japan’s intervention this month drew a rebuke from Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who chairs meetings of euro-region finance ministers. Mr. Juncker said in an interview in Brussels that the group was “insisting” Japanese authorities “step back from unilateral interventions.”

Mr. Juncker’s comments came the same day the European Union’s statistics office said the region’s exports fell in July for the first time in three months.

The G-20 includes the world’s biggest developed and emerging-market nations, from China, Brazil, Russia and India to the U.S., Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. Its finance ministers meet in Korea on Oct. 21-23 ahead of the summit of leaders in Seoul on Nov. 11-12.



"Currency war brewing??.."

 "It's such a difficult game because the global economy needs the U.S. to prosper and the U.S. needs a weaker currency to help its growth prospects.."

bulls-bears

Recent interventions into foreign exchange markets from Japan and China, combined with extreme devaluation in the U.S. dollar over the summer, have one of the world’s biggest exporters crying foul and raising the spectre of an all-out currency war.

Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Monday that global governments are unfairly manipulating their currencies to improve export competitiveness, forcing Brazil to contemplate new taxes on short-term fixed-income investments and other measures to stem a rally in the real, the country’s currency.

“We’re in the midst of an international currency war,” Mr. Mantega said during a speech to a meeting of Brazilian industrial leaders. “This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness.”

The comments come on the heels of the Brazil’s vow last week to use its sovereign wealth fund to weaken the real. Trading above US$1.71, the Brazil’s currency is near its 10-month high and is the world’s most-overvalued major currency, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Mr. Mantega said advanced countries including the United States, Europe and Japan are seeking to devalue their currencies in an intensifying trade competition.

With the global economic recovery slowing in recent months, currency interventions have become a way for countries to weaken their currencies in order to boost exports and thus trade balances.

After talking tough for weeks, Japanese authorities finally intervened to sell yen on Sept. 15. Last week, they said another intervention is possible.

Meanwhile, the United States has stepped up political pressure on China’s currency, the yuan, which many economists say is undervalued. Since China’s central bank in June said it would let the yuan fluctuate more freely, it has risen just 1.8%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said last week that the current level of the Chinese yuan continues to have an adverse impact on the U.S. economy.

“It’s such a difficult game because the global economy needs the U.S. to prosper and the U.S. needs a weaker currency to help its growth prospects,” said Camilla Sutton, a currency strategist at Scotia Capital Markets of the posturing in recent weeks on FX markets.

“But as soon as you see it happen, other countries start to cry foul,” Ms. Sutton said.

Since June 7, when the U.S. dollar hit a high, the Australian dollar is up 19% against the greenback, the Swiss franc is up 18% and the Euro is up 13%.

Ms. Sutton said these are huge moves in a short time and noted such extreme volatility is difficult for exporters to handle.

“If you think of an exporter, who has margins of 18%, let alone 10% to deal with volatility like that?” she said.

There is precedent for some global central banks to intervene in their currency, but Ms. Sutton said it is unlikely that G7 nations, including Canada, which has seen its currency climb about 3% against the U.S. dollar, will intervene any time soon.

“The Canadian dollar has been stuck in a range, which has been relatively good for Canadian exporters,” she said. “If it does strengthen further, it will be tough on manufacturers, but generally, a strong Canadian dollar goes hand-in-hand with strong oil prices so the nation as a whole ends up all right.”

John Curran, a senior dealer at CanadianForex, also said there is no immediate threat of the Bank of Canada intervening. But multi-year highs for several currencies reached over the past few weeks have many countries feeling the “screws tightening.”

In particular lesser economies are starting to voice their opinion with much of the angst directed towards China, who many feel could do more to strengthen its currency.

At the same time, Mr. Curran is surprised that Japan’s intervention has not garnered more reaction from the United States, adding Brazil’s sabre-rattling has so far fallen on deaf ears.

“The market has been waiting for some sort of reaction, but having come from Brazil yesterday, I don’t think it got too deeply into people’s plans.”



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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro dipped on early European session, weighed under renewed concerns about the Euro Area banking sector, and the pair broke below 1.3425 support zone, to hit 1.3380 low where the pair found support to bounce up towards 1.3500 -5-month high- under pressure at the moment.


USD: 
The Dollar weakness has subsided..after the news out of Europe that Moodys downgraded Anglo Irish Bank's ratings. The bearish trend overnight reversed to become a bullish trend. This morning's announcement out of the U.S ...Consumer Confidence will cause alittle more movement than we saw yesterday.

The question for this week, will the USD/CAD reach into the higher 1.0400 or 1.0500 levels?


CAD:  Yesterday's quiet day for data announcements along with commodity strength gave the CAD another good day for buyers of the USD. The expected range on the USD/CAD for today....lower 1.0200 to higher 1.0300 levels. Once again, market reaction to the USD-Consumer Confidence report will be a factor.


GBP:  The Pound has performed a sharp bullish upside reaction to initial weakness on early European session, and, after a slight decline to 1.5780, the pair, favoured by upbeat UK GDP and current account figures, has bounced up, breaking above 1.5865 to hit a fresh 7-week high at 1.5900.

JPY:
  Dollar decline from 85.90 high on mid September found support above 84.10, and after having remained trading in range between the mentioned 84.10 and 84.40/45 resistance area.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0226   Resistance: 1.0371

CAD/JPY

Support:  80.80   Resistance:  82.02

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3812  Resistance: 1.3991

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3381  Resistance: 1.3553

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5741  Resistance: 1.5895

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Consumer Confidence data.
CAD - No relevant data.

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