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"Currency compromise topic on the next G20 meeting in South Korea "..
"The days of global cooperation to achieve internationally shared goals are long past"
Leaders
of Group of 20 nations may ease tensions over exchange-rate policies by
the end of their November summit, a South Korean official said after
Brazil warned of deepening divisions. “Policy makers are
talking over the currency issue and thus I expect they will be able to
find a compromise at the Seoul summit,” Sakong Il, chairman of the
nation’s presidential committee for the summit, told reporters in Seoul
today. He didn’t elaborate on what kind of solution may be found. Mr.
Sakong’s comments come a day after Brazilian Finance Minister Guido
Mantega said a “currency war” has begun, with nations seeking to
cheapen their exchange rates to bolster exports. Japan this month broke
a six-year policy by selling yen, joining countries across Asia and
Latin America that have tempered gains in their currencies against the
dollar in a move that drew criticism from the U.S. and euro area. “There
is a scramble for export competitiveness and that’s going to continue
so we’re going to have more comments such as Mantega’s and more central
banks intervening,” said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at Bank of
New York Mellon Corp. in London. “It has to be a subject discussed at
G20 but where the meetings of minds will be is very difficult to guess.” Since
G20 leaders began holding summits in November 2008, they have pledged
not to raise or impose trade barriers, seeking to avoid the type of
protectionist measures that crippled the global economy in the 1930s. G20 Pledges The
G20 pledged in April 2009 in London to “refrain from competitive
devaluation” of their currencies, and the leaders said at their last
gathering in Toronto in June that “market- oriented exchange rates that
reflect underlying economic fundamentals contribute to global economic
stability.” Devaluations were blamed for worsening the Great Depression. Even
so, Mr. Mantega said yesterday said that “we are experiencing a
currency war — devaluing currencies artificially is a global strategy.”
He added that his government will buy all “excess dollars” in the
market to curb the real’s appreciation. “We’re already buying a bigger
volume of currency — we’ll keep buying.” China has
incurred international criticism for limiting gains in its exchange
rate. The yuan has risen about 2% versus the dollar since the People’s
Bank of China in June pledged greater flexibility in the currency after
pegging it around 6.83 for two years. Currency Selling Asian
nations including South Korea and Thailand have also sold their
currencies as have Brazil and Switzerland. Japan did so on Sept. 15
after the yen surged to the highest level since 1995 against the
dollar, imperiling the exports responsible for more than half of
Japan’s economic growth in the second quarter. “The days
of global cooperation to achieve internationally shared goals are long
past,” Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Monument Securities in London,
said in a research note yesterday. “There must be some danger to the
global free trading system.” Bank of New York Mellon’s
Mellor said policy makers are acting to weaken their currencies as the
Federal Reserve considers taking more steps to boost the U.S. economy,
resulting in a weaker dollar. “It’s almost inevitable with
the Fed’s policy that we’ll have more central banks looking to
intervene,” he said. “There are huge forces against the dollar right
now.” ADB’s Call “Emerging currencies
in Asia need to be more flexible and probably need to appreciate
against the G-3,” Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda told
reporters today in Kuala Lumpur. The G-3 refers to the euro, dollar and
yen. “Emerging economies in Asia are really growing fast.” U.S.
lawmakers aim to consider this month legislation allowing American
companies to seek protection against imports from nations pursuing
misaligned exchange rates. Former Canadian prime minister
Paul Martin also said at the joint press conference in Seoul today that
the G-20, as a steering committee for international economic
cooperation, has to deal with the currency issue involving the U.S. and
China. It’s not just a matter between the two countries, Mr. Martin,
also a former finance minister, said. U.S. Treasury
Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said this month that the Obama
administration will use every available tool to urge China to let its
currency rise more quickly. Premier Wen Jiabao countered last week that
a 20 percent jump in the yuan risks “major” social upheaval and job
losses. European Rebuke Japan’s intervention
this month drew a rebuke from Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude
Juncker, who chairs meetings of euro-region finance ministers. Mr.
Juncker said in an interview in Brussels that the group was “insisting”
Japanese authorities “step back from unilateral interventions.” Mr.
Juncker’s comments came the same day the European Union’s statistics
office said the region’s exports fell in July for the first time in
three months. The G-20 includes the world’s biggest
developed and emerging-market nations, from China, Brazil, Russia and
India to the U.S., Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. Its finance
ministers meet in Korea on Oct. 21-23 ahead of the summit of leaders in
Seoul on Nov. 11-12.
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"Currency war brewing??.."
"It's such a difficult game because the global economy needs the U.S. to prosper and the U.S. needs a weaker currency to help its growth prospects.."
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Recent
interventions into foreign exchange markets from Japan and China,
combined with extreme devaluation in the U.S. dollar over the summer,
have one of the world’s biggest exporters crying foul and raising the
spectre of an all-out currency war. Brazilian Finance Minister
Guido Mantega said Monday that global governments are unfairly
manipulating their currencies to improve export competitiveness,
forcing Brazil to contemplate new taxes on short-term fixed-income
investments and other measures to stem a rally in the real, the
country’s currency. “We’re in the midst of an international
currency war,” Mr. Mantega said during a speech to a meeting of
Brazilian industrial leaders. “This threatens us because it takes away
our competitiveness.” The comments come on the heels of the
Brazil’s vow last week to use its sovereign wealth fund to weaken the
real. Trading above US$1.71, the Brazil’s currency is near its 10-month
high and is the world’s most-overvalued major currency, according to
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Mr. Mantega said advanced countries
including the United States, Europe and Japan are seeking to devalue
their currencies in an intensifying trade competition. With the
global economic recovery slowing in recent months, currency
interventions have become a way for countries to weaken their
currencies in order to boost exports and thus trade balances. After
talking tough for weeks, Japanese authorities finally intervened to
sell yen on Sept. 15. Last week, they said another intervention is
possible. Meanwhile, the United States has stepped up political
pressure on China’s currency, the yuan, which many economists say is
undervalued. Since China’s central bank in June said it would let the
yuan fluctuate more freely, it has risen just 1.8%. U.S. Treasury
Secretary Timothy Geithner said last week that the current level of the
Chinese yuan continues to have an adverse impact on the U.S. economy. “It’s
such a difficult game because the global economy needs the U.S. to
prosper and the U.S. needs a weaker currency to help its growth
prospects,” said Camilla Sutton, a currency strategist at Scotia
Capital Markets of the posturing in recent weeks on FX markets. “But as soon as you see it happen, other countries start to cry foul,” Ms. Sutton said. Since
June 7, when the U.S. dollar hit a high, the Australian dollar is up
19% against the greenback, the Swiss franc is up 18% and the Euro is up
13%. Ms. Sutton said these are huge moves in a short time and noted such extreme volatility is difficult for exporters to handle. “If you think of an exporter, who has margins of 18%, let alone 10% to deal with volatility like that?” she said. There
is precedent for some global central banks to intervene in their
currency, but Ms. Sutton said it is unlikely that G7 nations, including
Canada, which has seen its currency climb about 3% against the U.S.
dollar, will intervene any time soon. “The Canadian dollar has
been stuck in a range, which has been relatively good for Canadian
exporters,” she said. “If it does strengthen further, it will be tough
on manufacturers, but generally, a strong Canadian dollar goes
hand-in-hand with strong oil prices so the nation as a whole ends up
all right.” John Curran, a senior dealer at CanadianForex, also
said there is no immediate threat of the Bank of Canada intervening.
But multi-year highs for several currencies reached over the past few
weeks have many countries feeling the “screws tightening.” In
particular lesser economies are starting to voice their opinion with
much of the angst directed towards China, who many feel could do more
to strengthen its currency. At the same time, Mr. Curran is
surprised that Japan’s intervention has not garnered more reaction from
the United States, adding Brazil’s sabre-rattling has so far fallen on
deaf ears. “The market has been waiting for some sort of
reaction, but having come from Brazil yesterday, I don’t think it got
too deeply into people’s plans.”
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| Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY
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EUR: The Euro dipped on early European session, weighed under renewed
concerns about the Euro Area banking sector, and the pair broke below
1.3425 support zone, to hit 1.3380 low where the pair found support to
bounce up towards 1.3500 -5-month high- under pressure at the moment.
USD: The Dollar weakness has subsided..after the news out of Europe that Moodys downgraded Anglo Irish Bank's ratings. The bearish trend overnight reversed to become a bullish trend. This morning's announcement out of the U.S ...Consumer Confidence will cause alittle more movement than we saw yesterday.
The question for this week, will the USD/CAD reach into the higher 1.0400 or 1.0500 levels?
CAD: Yesterday's quiet day for data announcements along with commodity strength gave the CAD another good day for buyers of the USD. The expected range on the USD/CAD for today....lower 1.0200 to higher 1.0300 levels. Once again, market reaction to the USD-Consumer Confidence report will be a factor.
GBP: The Pound has performed a sharp bullish upside reaction to initial
weakness on early European session, and, after a slight decline to
1.5780, the pair, favoured by upbeat UK GDP and current account
figures, has bounced up, breaking above 1.5865 to hit a fresh 7-week
high at 1.5900.
JPY: Dollar decline from 85.90 high on mid September found support above
84.10, and after having remained trading in range between the mentioned
84.10 and 84.40/45 resistance area.
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| Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP
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USD/CAD
Support: 1.0226 Resistance: 1.0371
CAD/JPY
Support: 80.80 Resistance: 82.02
EUR/CAD
Support: 1.3812 Resistance: 1.3991
EUR/USD
Support: 1.3381 Resistance: 1.3553
GBP/USD
Support: 1.5741 Resistance: 1.5895
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| Main USD/CAD data today: |
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1. USD- Consumer Confidence data.
CAD - No relevant data.
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