Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 126         www.taheriexchange.com   29th of October 2010
worldfx

"Roubini states U.S. headed for a 'fiscal train wreck'.."

"The trigger could be a debt rollover crisis in a major U.S. state government... "


The U.S. economy is a "fiscal train wreck" waiting to happen that risks ushering in a period of stagnation featuring by minimal growth, high unemployment and deflationary pressure, U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini wrote on Friday.

In a commentary for the Financial Times, Roubini -- one of the first economists to predict the housing crash in the United States and known as 'Dr Doom' for his pessimistic forecasts -- said fiscal and monetary stimulus had prevented another depression.

But he said that further quantitative easing likely to be announced by the Federal Reserve next Wednesday will have little effect on U.S. growth in 2011, "so fiscal policy should be doing some of the lifting to prevent a double dip recession," he said.

He said the U.S. remains on an "unsustainable fiscal course" and the likely make-up of Congress after elections next Tuesday, in which the Republicans look set for strong gains, virtually takes fiscal reform off the agenda.

"The risk ... is that something on the fiscal side will snap ... The trigger could be a debt rollover crisis in a major U.S. state government," he wrote.

"The worst of the coming fiscal train wreck will be prevented by the Fed's easing. But the risk is (Obama) ... will then preside over ... a Japanese style stagnation, where growth is barely positive, and deflationary pressures and high unemployment linger."



"USD- GDP grew in 3Q .."

 "CAD- GDP came out as expected in the month of August.."

bulls-bears

The U.S. economy grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter as consumer spending climbed the most in almost four years, a sign the expansion is developing staying power.

Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Household purchases, about 70 percent of the economy, rose at a 2.6 percent pace, the best quarter of the recovery that began in June 2009.

The figures, the last economy-wide gauge before voters head to the polls on Nov. 2, show growth remains short of what’s needed to cut a jobless rate stuck near 10 percent. The report also indicated inflation cooled as retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. cut prices, one reason why Federal Reserve policy makers next week may pump more money into the world’s largest economy.

“Consumer spending looks considerably better,” Jim O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York, said before the report. At the same time, “it’s pretty clear the Fed will do more as they’re trying to get above-trend growth to reduce the unemployment rate.”


Canada’s economy rebound with 0.3% growth in August, led by the energy and manufacturing sectors, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The growth was in line with economists’ forecasts for the month, after gross domestic product declined 0.1% the previous month.

“Oil and gas extraction, wholesale trade and manufacturing were the main sources of growth in August,” the federal agency said. “Increases were also recorded in the finance and insurance sector, by real estate agents and brokers, in construction and retail trade. Utilities and forestry decreased while public sector output was unchanged.”

After an initially strong rebound from the recession, the Canadian economy has been struggling to regain that pace amid a weaker housing market and an uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy — Canada’s biggest trading partner.

The Bank of Canada has dramatically revised down its growth outlook for the country, forecasting 3% growth this year and 2.3% in 2011, versus previous expectations for advances of 3.5% and 2.9%, respectively.

The central bank has also put further increases in its key interest on hold in an effort to encourage spending.



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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  Euro decline has found support at 1.3805 day low as the pair has taken back most of the ground lost on Asian and European sessions after the release of US GDP figures, r returning above 1.3900 and approaching day high at 1.3950.


USD: 
Today's GDP data was very positive..the USD headed into a bearish trend and currently still in this direction.

Later this morning Univ. of Michigan Confidence data is due..if the news is positive...we will see more selling of the USD.


CAD:  The Canadian GDP numbers came out as expected, what has caused further weakness in the USD, strong GDP from the U.S, commodities strengthening...overall good day for buyers. The pair had been in the higher 1.0100 levels.

Today we may see the lower 1.0100 to mid 1.0200 levels. If the pair can break support in the lower 1.0100 levels..we may see parity as the next level.


GBP:  The Pound has eased against the Dollar although losses have been limited, if compared to the Euro, as the pair's retreat from 1.5965/75 resistance area has been contained above 1.5875, and the pair is trading both sides of 1.5900 ahead of US GDP data.

JPY:
   Dollar retreat from 82.00 high on Wednesday extended below 81.10 to reach day low at 80.50 -right above 80.40, fresh 15-year low- and the pair ticked higher, as demand for Dollars increased on European session, reaching 80.85 resistance area.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0134   Resistance: 1.0246

CAD/JPY

Support:  78.73   Resistance:  79.40

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.4092  Resistance: 1.4218

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3806  Resistance: 1.3963

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5917  Resistance: 1.6029

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- GDP, Pers. Consumption & Univ. of Mich. Confidence data.
CAD - GDP data.

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