Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 147         www.taheriexchange.com   29th of November 2010
worldfx

" Investors concerned about Eurozone rescue .."

"There are still lingering worries about the rest of the countries... "


Germany and France declared on Monday that Europe had taken decisive action to save the euro by rescuing Ireland and laying the foundations of a permanent debt resolution system, but investors were not convinced.

Under pressure to arrest the threat to the currency before markets opened and prevent contagion engulfing Portugal and Spain, EU finance ministers endorsed an 85 billion-euro (US$115 billion) loan package on Sunday to help Dublin cover bad bank debts and bridge a huge budget deficit.

They also approved the outlines of a long-term European Stability Mechanism (ESM), based on a Franco-German proposal, that will create a permanent bailout facility and make the private sector gradually share the burden of any future default.

"This is a measure which is not simply a single shot taken in response to an important crisis, it forms part of the absolute determination of Europe — of France and Germany — to save the eurozone," French government spokesman Francois Baroin told Europe 1 radio.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said now that clarity had been achieved, "we are hoping for calming and reality in the financial markets," where he said speculation against eurozone countries was "hardly rational."

And French Economy Christine Lagarde said "irrational," "sheep-like" markets were not pricing sovereign debt risk in Europe correctly.

The euro hovered near two-month lows against the dollar as investors looked past the Ireland rescue to the debt woes of other peripheral euro zone economies.

And the risk premium investors charge to hold Irish, Spanish and Portuguese bonds rather than safe-haven German bunds fell only slightly in early London trade.

"There are still lingering worries about the rest of the countries, including Portugal and Spain," said Lorraine Tan, director of Asian equity research at ratings agency Standard & Poor’s. "It does raise risk worries and there are less people willing to take risk at this stage."

Nouriel Roubini, the U.S. economist who warned of an impending credit crisis before 2007, told the Diario Economico business daily that Portugal was increasingly likely to need an international bailout.

"Like it or not, Portugal is reaching the critical point. Perhaps it could be a good idea to ask for a bailout in a preventative fashion," he said.

Adding to the gloom, Portuguese business confidence dipped in November for the second straight month, on poor prospects for the economy due to austerity measures designed to calm investor concerns about its creditworthiness. Troubles in Portugal, widely seen as the next euro zone "domino" at risk, could spread quickly to its neighbour Spain because of their close economic ties.

Interest rate strategists expect Spain will have to pay more to lure investors to Thursday’s offering of three-year bonds, but five-year credit default swaps on BBVA and Santander tightened on Monday after widening aggressively last week.

The new European Stability Mechanism could make private bondholders share the cost restructuring a eurozone country’s debt issued after mid-2013 on a case-by-case basis.

The lack of detail in an earlier Franco-German deal on a crisis mechanism, agreed last month, and talk of private investors having to take losses, or "haircuts," on the value of sovereign bonds, helped drive Ireland over the cliff.

NO SILVER BULLET

Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, who for weeks denied Dublin needed a bailout, expressed satisfaction with the deal despite the interest rate of close to 6% which Ireland will have to pay on the loans.

"This agreement is necessary for our country and our people. The final agreed programme represents the best available deal for Ireland," Cowen said.

Ireland was given an extra year, until 2015, to get its budget deficit down below the EU limit of 3% of gross domestic product in an acknowledgment that austerity measures will hit economic growth in the next four years.

But initial reactions from market analysts to the EU moves ranged from sceptical to bleak.

"I don’t think this is going to be a silver bullet. I think there are still going to be some question marks on Portugal and Spain," said Peter Westaway, chief economist at brokers Nomura.

"I think it is almost impossible now to stop the contagion," said Mark Grant, managing director of corporate syndicate and structured debt products at Southwest Securities in Florida.

International Monetary Fund procedures would apply in the ESM. The IMF’s "lending into arrears" policy stipulates that the Fund will lend to a country that is making good-faith efforts to come to an agreement with bondholders.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the important points were that the IMF’s doctrine would apply, the European Union would not get involved in debt restructuring itself and existing bondholders would not be hit retroactively.

Debt worries have driven the crisis for the past year, severely denting confidence in the 12-year-old euro currency and producing what amounts to a showdown between European politicians and financial markets.

The proposed permanent crisis resolution mechanism, to be finalised in the coming weeks, is intended to prevent Europe having to rush like a fireman from one blaze to another.

But it breaks several longstanding taboos:

• it effectively tears up the "no bailout" clause in the EU treaty, to which a exception had already been made for Greece;

• it creates a permanent rescue mechanism to replace the temporary three-year facility established in May;

• it accepts for the first time the possibility of a sovereign default in the euro zone;

• and it allows for the possibility of making private bondholders share the cost with taxpayers after mid-2013.




"Signs to watch for this week.."

 "GDP, Unemployment rate and Net Change in Employment numbers.."
bulls-bears
If the projections are right, markets can expect to see three signs this week that Canada’s recovery is slowing. Not dead in the water - not by any stretch - but nowhere near the rapid pace of the post-recession rebound.

“After delivering a solid ‘V’ shaped recovery in the early stages of economic recovery, Canadian economic growth has moderated significantly over the last six months,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Diana Petramala.

First, Statistics Canada is expected to report this morning that the country’s current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade, hit about $16-billion in the third quarter. That would represent some 4 per cent of gross domestic product, or roughly the outside edge of what the U.S. would like to see as a target. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has proposed that countries keep their surpluses and deficits to within 4 per cent of GDP.

Barring massive revisions, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that Canada ran a record nominal current account deficit last quarter, given that merchandise trade tumbled into the widest shortfall ever,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns deputy chief economist Douglas Porter.

“We estimate that the broadest measure of trade will post a deficit of $16.8-billion in the quarter, which translates to a $67.2-billion annual rate. That would represent a hefty 4.2-per-cent of GDP, the widest gap since the early 1990s and not far from the record quarterly deficit of 5.2 per cent in [the first quarter of 1975].”

The current account data will be followed tomorrow by Statistics Canada’s reading of how the economy performed overall in the third quarter. Economists believe GDP expanded at an annual pace of about 1.5 per cent in the quarter, a marked slowdown from the surge that followed the recession.

Although second-half growth will likely be a mere shadow of that earlier in the recovery, economic activity is still rising, and growing wages are encouraging gains in consumption,” said Emanuella Enenajor of CIBC World Markets.

“However, as the housing market and external trade continue to act as a drag on the economy, we will likely see a cautious approach to rate hikes by the [Bank of Canada] in 2011.”

Finally, on Friday, economists expect to see slower growth in the labour market, though it’s important to keep in mind that the projection is still for “growth” and Canada has already recouped the jobs it lost to the recession.

Markets expect Statistics Canada to report that anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 jobs were created in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.9 per cent.

“After recouping all of the recession’s job losses in roughly a year, the economy has simply been unable to find new work,” said Mr. Porter.



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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The EUR/USD has been steadily creeping lower over Europe, dropping as much as 60 pips since its peak at opening bell around 1.3300. Most recently the pair seems to be finding support around its daily and 9-week low of 1.3140.

USD:  This week's barrage of U.S. data will either see the USD/CAD head back into the 1.0300 levels or remain in the lower 1.0000 range.

CAD:  Commodity and equity markets were strengthening earlier this morning, with no relevant data out of the U.S. today...expect more choppy ranges.

Once again good opportunities for sellers and possibly buyers of the USD.

The USD/CAD will range from ...higher 1.0100 to possibly mid 1.0200.

GBP:  The Pound's decline from 1.6080 area in November 19/22 has extended to fresh two-month low at 1.5555, and after a tepid recovery attempt, which was capped at 1.5650, the pair pulled back to consolidate below 1.5600 ahead of Wall Street opening.

JPY:   The Dollar recovery from long-term lows at 80.20 on early November reached fresh 2-month highs at 84.20 level on Friday, which was retested on early Asian session although, unable to break higher, the Dollar has eased to 84.00 ahead of the European session opening.

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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.0178   Resistance: 1.0262

CAD/JPY

Support:  82.05   Resistance:  82.97

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3326  Resistance: 1.3444

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3033  Resistance: 1.3223

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5501  Resistance: 1.5605

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- No relevant data.
CAD - Current Account data.

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