Germany
and France declared on Monday that Europe had taken decisive action to
save the euro by rescuing Ireland and laying the foundations of a
permanent debt resolution system, but investors were not convinced.
Under
pressure to arrest the threat to the currency before markets opened and
prevent contagion engulfing Portugal and Spain, EU finance ministers
endorsed an 85 billion-euro (US$115 billion) loan package on Sunday to
help Dublin cover bad bank debts and bridge a huge budget deficit.
They
also approved the outlines of a long-term European Stability Mechanism
(ESM), based on a Franco-German proposal, that will create a permanent
bailout facility and make the private sector gradually share the burden
of any future default.
"This is a measure which is not simply a
single shot taken in response to an important crisis, it forms part of
the absolute determination of Europe — of France and Germany — to save
the eurozone," French government spokesman Francois Baroin told Europe 1
radio.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said now that
clarity had been achieved, "we are hoping for calming and reality in the
financial markets," where he said speculation against eurozone
countries was "hardly rational."
And French Economy Christine
Lagarde said "irrational," "sheep-like" markets were not pricing
sovereign debt risk in Europe correctly.
The euro hovered near
two-month lows against the dollar as investors looked past the Ireland
rescue to the debt woes of other peripheral euro zone economies.
And
the risk premium investors charge to hold Irish, Spanish and Portuguese
bonds rather than safe-haven German bunds fell only slightly in early
London trade.
"There are still lingering worries about the rest
of the countries, including Portugal and Spain," said Lorraine Tan,
director of Asian equity research at ratings agency Standard &
Poor’s. "It does raise risk worries and there are less people willing to
take risk at this stage."
Nouriel Roubini, the U.S. economist who
warned of an impending credit crisis before 2007, told the Diario
Economico business daily that Portugal was increasingly likely to need
an international bailout.
"Like it or not, Portugal is reaching
the critical point. Perhaps it could be a good idea to ask for a bailout
in a preventative fashion," he said.
Adding to the gloom,
Portuguese business confidence dipped in November for the second
straight month, on poor prospects for the economy due to austerity
measures designed to calm investor concerns about its creditworthiness.
Troubles in Portugal, widely seen as the next euro zone "domino" at
risk, could spread quickly to its neighbour Spain because of their close
economic ties.
Interest rate strategists expect Spain will have
to pay more to lure investors to Thursday’s offering of three-year
bonds, but five-year credit default swaps on BBVA and Santander
tightened on Monday after widening aggressively last week.
The
new European Stability Mechanism could make private bondholders share
the cost restructuring a eurozone country’s debt issued after mid-2013
on a case-by-case basis.
The lack of detail in an earlier
Franco-German deal on a crisis mechanism, agreed last month, and talk of
private investors having to take losses, or "haircuts," on the value of
sovereign bonds, helped drive Ireland over the cliff.
NO SILVER BULLET
Irish
Prime Minister Brian Cowen, who for weeks denied Dublin needed a
bailout, expressed satisfaction with the deal despite the interest rate
of close to 6% which Ireland will have to pay on the loans.
"This
agreement is necessary for our country and our people. The final agreed
programme represents the best available deal for Ireland," Cowen said.
Ireland
was given an extra year, until 2015, to get its budget deficit down
below the EU limit of 3% of gross domestic product in an acknowledgment
that austerity measures will hit economic growth in the next four years.
But initial reactions from market analysts to the EU moves ranged from sceptical to bleak.
"I
don’t think this is going to be a silver bullet. I think there are
still going to be some question marks on Portugal and Spain," said Peter
Westaway, chief economist at brokers Nomura.
"I think it is
almost impossible now to stop the contagion," said Mark Grant, managing
director of corporate syndicate and structured debt products at
Southwest Securities in Florida.
International Monetary Fund
procedures would apply in the ESM. The IMF’s "lending into arrears"
policy stipulates that the Fund will lend to a country that is making
good-faith efforts to come to an agreement with bondholders.
European
Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the important points
were that the IMF’s doctrine would apply, the European Union would not
get involved in debt restructuring itself and existing bondholders would
not be hit retroactively.
Debt worries have driven the crisis for
the past year, severely denting confidence in the 12-year-old euro
currency and producing what amounts to a showdown between European
politicians and financial markets.
The proposed permanent crisis
resolution mechanism, to be finalised in the coming weeks, is intended
to prevent Europe having to rush like a fireman from one blaze to
another.
But it breaks several longstanding taboos:
• it effectively tears up the "no bailout" clause in the EU treaty, to which a exception had already been made for Greece;
• it creates a permanent rescue mechanism to replace the temporary three-year facility established in May;
• it accepts for the first time the possibility of a sovereign default in the euro zone;
• and it allows for the possibility of making private bondholders share the cost with taxpayers after mid-2013.