Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 105         www.taheriexchange.com   29th of September 2010
worldfx

"Europe overwhelmed by protests "..

"There is a great danger that the workers are going to be paying the price for the reckless speculation that took place in the financial markets"


Tens of thousands of demonstrators poured into Brussels, hoping to swell into a 100,000-strong march on European Union institutions later in the day and reinforce the impact of Spain's first nationwide strike in eight years.

All the actions sought to protest the budget-slashing, tax-hiking, pension-cutting austerity plans of European governments seeking to control their debt.

In an ironic twist, the march in Brussels comes just as the EU Commission is proposing to punish member states that have run up deficits to fund social programs in a time of high unemployment across the continent. The proposal, backed by Germany, is expected to run into strong opposition from France.

“It is a bizarre time for the European Commission to be proposing a regime of punishment,” said John Monks, general secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation, which is organizing the Brussels march.

“How is that going to make the situation better? It is going to make it worse,” Mr. Monks said in an interview with Associated Press Television News.

Unions fear that workers will become the biggest victims of an economic crisis set off by bankers and traders, many of whom were rescued by massive government intervention.

Several governments, already living dangerously with high debt, were pushed to the brink of financial collapse and have been forced to impose punishing cuts in wages, pensions and employment — measures that have brought workers out by the tens of thousands over the past months.

“There is a great danger that the workers are going to be paying the price for the reckless speculation that took place in financial markets,” Mr. Monks said. “You really got to reschedule these debts so that they are not a huge burden on the next few years and cause Europe to plunge down into recession.”

In Spain, Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's Socialist government is under severe pressure because of the hugely unpopular measures put in place to save Europe's fourth-largest economy from a bailout like one that saved Greece from bankruptcy.

The cuts have helped Spain trim its central government deficit by half through July but the unemployment rate stands at 20 percent, and many businesses are struggling to survive.

The strike Wednesday was Spain's first general strike since 2002 and marked a break in the once-close relationship between unions and the Socialist government.

Whistle-blowing picketers blocked trucks from delivering produce at the main wholesale markets in Madrid and Barcelona. Strikers hurled eggs and screamed “scabs” at drivers trying to leave a city bus garage in Madrid.

The salary cuts for civil servants, pension reforms and new laws that make it easier for companies to fire workers were rushed into law quickly in Spain, without traditional negotiations between management and workers.

Greece, which had to be rescued by the euro-nations this spring to stave off bankruptcy, has also been forced to cut deep into workers' allowances, with weeks of bitter strikes and actions as a result.

Bus and trolley drivers walked off the job for several hours while Athens' metro system and tram were to shut down at noon. National railway workers were also walking off the job at noon, disrupting rail connections across the country, while doctors at state hospitals were on a 24-hour strike.

Greece has already been suffering from two weeks of protests by truck drivers who have made it difficult for businesses to get supplies. Many supermarkets are seeing shortages, while producers complaining they are unable to export their goods.

Truck drivers' unions voted late Tuesday to continue their protests against plans to liberalize their tightly regulated profession, despite a government threat to force them back to work or cancel their licenses.

Greece's government has imposed stringent austerity measures, including cutting civil servants' salaries, trimming pensions and hiking consumer and income taxes. Several other EU nations are also planning actions.

In Dublin, a man blocked the gates of the Irish parliament with a cement truck to protest the country's expensive bank bailout. Written across the truck's barrel in red letters were the words: “Toxic Bank” Anglo and “All politicians should be sacked.”

Police arrested a 41-year-old man but gave few other details.

The Anglo Irish Bank, which was nationalized last year to save it from collapse, owes some euro72 billion ($97 billion) to depositors worldwide, leaving Irish taxpayers with a mammoth bill at a time when people are suffering through high unemployment, tax hikes and heavy budget cuts.

Many experts say, no matter what unions try, the towering government debt across the continent will force drastic changes in Europe's labor situation.

“The party is over,” said former EU Commissioner Frits Bolkestein at the financial Eurofi conference in Brussels. “We shall all have to work longer and harder, more hours in the week, more weeks in the year, and no state pension before the age of 67.”

The unions say, however, the party was only there for society's upper crust, and workers are being forced to pay the bills. The crisis has left 23 million people unemployed in Europe, Mr. Monks said.


"USD- Mortgage applications decline.."

 "CAD- Industrial Product Price numbers greater than expected.."

bulls-bears

The number of mortgage applications in the U.S. declined last week for a fourth straight time, led by a drop in refinancing even as mortgage rates declined to the lowest on record.

The Mortgage Bankers Association index fell 0.8 percent in the week ended Sept. 24 to the lowest level in almost two months, the Washington-based group said today. Refinancing also dropped to a seven-week low, while purchases increased for the first time in three weeks.

Falling home values are making it harder for Americans to refinance even as borrowing costs drop. At the same time, with the unemployment rate near a 26-year high and stricter lending standards, housing demand will be slow to improve.

“With lack of job growth, with lack of credit growth you’re simply not going to get housing and the economy growing well,” Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report.



Statistics Canada released August Industrial Product Price at 0.4% and the Raw Material Price Index at 2.2%, both overcoming expectations.

The previous Industrial Product Price reading stood at 0.1%, and was expected to rise only to 0.2%. The Raw Material Price Index printed 1.8% and was actually forecasted to dip to 0.7%.

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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro is regaining upside momentum, after having remained hesitating around 1.3600 during most of the European trading, and, after bouncing up from 1.3575, the pair has revisited 5-month high at 1.3643 ahead of the US session opening.


USD: 
Once again negative news coming out of Europe pertaining to the austerity protests, what effect will this have on investors when the U.S. markets open shortly.

Mortgage applications were weaker causing further weakness to the USD. Since the USD is the safe haven currency, will we see a bullish trend during North American trading sessions?

CAD: The Canadian loonie was given a boost directly following expectation-beating data releases regarding industrial and raw material price indices.

Will the bearish trend on the USD/CAD continue..back into the lower 1.0200 or higher 1.0100 levels today? Today's expected range from higher 1.0100 level to higher 1.0200..all dependant on North American investors reaction to today's data.

GBP:  After yesterday's spike down to 1.5720 low, the Pound attempted to regain lost territory on Asian session, and favoured by improved sentiment, returned above 1.5800, although, rejected at 1.5875 area at European opening, the pair has pulled back to 1.5800 area.

JPY:
  The Dollar continues pulling back from 85.95, posr intervention high, as the pair dipped below 83.65 low, to hit 83.50, before picking up to previous support at 83.70 area which so far is capping Dollar recovery.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0191   Resistance: 1.0296

CAD/JPY

Support:  80.55   Resistance:  81.97

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3853  Resistance: 1.4038

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3515  Resistance: 1.3685

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5741  Resistance: 1.5854

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- MBA Mortgage Applications data.
CAD - Industrial Product Price & Raw Materials data.

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