Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 230          www.taheriexchange.com   30th of March 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9686      Resistance: 0.9768

CAD/JPY

Support:  84.59    Resistance:  85.92

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3590   Resistance:  1.3734

EUR/USD

Support:  1.4029  Resistance:  1.4137

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5947  Resistance:  1.6074

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY

 

EUR:  Euro pullback from 1.4125 high on Asian session has been contained at 1.4060 ahead of the European session opening, and the pair unable to regain 1.4100, remains trading sideways, half way through the week's range.



USD:   Earlier this morning, ADP employment figures came out positive...causing the USD to weaken. Expect the same as yesterday...choppy levels....

Once again U.S. equity markets will set the trend for this pair today.

CAD:   Commodity and equity markets slightly positive..yet...the USD/CAD dipped earlier down higher 0.9600 levels..and since has been in the lower 0.9700 level.

Our clients are placing orders from lower 0.9700 to buy, higher 0.9700 to sell.

Expected range ..  possibly lower 0.9700 to higher 0.9700.


GBP:     The Pound recovery from 1.5935 support area has extended above the top of the last two days trading range, at 1.6145, to reach 1.6185 session high.


    
JPY:    The Dollar recovery from long term low at 76.25 shortly after the earthquake, extended sharply yesterday, with the pair breaking above 82.00 to return to pre-quake levels, trading at 2 1/2-week highs, at 83.00 ahead of the European session opening.



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worldfx

" Portugal's hope to avoid bailout fades "....

" the economy is poorly equipped to generate the kind of growth it needs to pullout of the market turmoil   ".....

 

Debt-heavy Portugal's hopes of avoiding a financial bailout were fading fast Wednesday as the country's borrowing rates continued their upward spiral to hit new euro-era highs.

The yield on the 10-year government bonds rose another 0.03 percentage point to 8.02 per cent, the highest level since the country joined in the founding of the 17-nation euro currency in 1999.

Portugal accounts for less than 2 per cent of the bloc's gross domestic product, but its troubles could weaken market confidence in the euro zone's efforts to beat a sovereign debt crisis that has plagued it for more than a year. Europe has already had to come up with multibillion-euro bailouts for Greece and Ireland.

Lisbon's rise in borrowing rates came a day after Standard & Poor's downgraded its credit rating on Portugal's bonds to triple-B-minus, just one notch above junk status.

The agency said Portugal's high debt load and poor growth prospects make it likely the country will wind up needing a financial rescue package. Analysts estimate it would need up to €80-billion ($113-billion U.S.).

Portugal's problems have metastasized over the past week – the government quit, rating agencies have three times downgraded its credit worthiness, interest rates have surged, and strikes by workers angered by austerity measures have shut down transit systems.

Portugal faces a key test in April when it has to rollover €4.5-billion. Another crunch comes in June when it has to find €4.96-billion for another bond repayment.

Officials say they have so far raised about one-third of the €20 billion the country needs to finance its economy this year and can meet the April settlement.

But the markets think that June's auction could well be the catalyst for a bailout request, according to Marc Ostwald, market strategist at Monument Securities.

The rising borrowing costs are adding a financial burden to the country's already acute difficulties.

The economy is poorly equipped to generate the kind of growth it needs to pull out of the market turmoil. Low productivity and a lack of wealth-generating industries have held the country back for more than a decade as its growth averaged less than 1 per cent a year, forcing it to borrow more and more money.

As Portugal heads for elections likely to be held in late May or early June, the outgoing government and all opposition parties insist they don't want a bailout that they say would hurt the nation's reputation and lock it into austerity policies for years to come.

The financial crisis is the worst since investors fled Portugal following a 1974 army coup known as the Carnation Revolution. Then, the International Monetary Fund provided two bailouts in the space of eight years.

Portuguese authorities are hoping Brazil, whose economy is flourishing, might provide some relief. Brazilian President Dilma Roussef said in a newspaper interview published Wednesday that she is looking at how to help Portugal.

“One of the possibilities is buying part of Portugal's sovereign debt,” she was quoted as saying by Diario Economico.

However, Brazilian laws limit the purchase of public debt to countries with a triple-A rating, she told reporters in Coimbra, central Portugal, where she was on a visit.

She said that restriction might be circumvented by asking for special loan guarantees, media reported.

Article provided by Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/portugals-hope-to-avoid-bailout-fades/article1962816/

 

" USD-  U.S. private sector adds jobs  "..

" the improving labour market should be a buffer against weak areas like real estate  " ...

bulls-bears

 

U.S. private employers added 201,000 jobs in March, while February’s figure was revised down slightly, a report by a payrolls processor showed Wednesday.

The data was largely in line with expectations. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP Employer Services report would show a gain of 203,000 jobs. The report is jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

February’s figure was revised down to 208,000 from 217,000.

“Basically the number was very much in line with expectations and shows that the labour recovery continues at a reasonable pace,” said David Katz, chief investment officer at Matrix Asset Advisors in New York.

“It looks like the U.S. economic recovery continues, and the improving labour market should be a buffer against weak areas like real estate.”

U.S. Treasury prices rose modestly immediately after the data and the U.S. dollar trimmed gains against the euro and yen, while U.S. stock index futures remained higher.

The ADP figures come ahead of the government’s much more comprehensive labour market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.

That report is expected to show the economy created about 190,000 jobs in March based on a Reuters poll of analysts, while private payrolls are forecast to rise by 200,000.

Economists often refer to the ADP report to fine-tune their expectations for the payrolls numbers, though it is not always accurate in predicting the outcome.

Article provided by Globe and Mail.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/jobs/us-private-sector-adds-jobs/article1962903/

 

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD - ADP employment change data.
2. CAD - No relevant data.
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