Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 148         www.taheriexchange.com   30th of November 2010
worldfx

" Eurozone issues continue .."

"Markets are very nervous and may even target situations that do not warrant such excessive worrying... "


The eurozone's debt crisis deepened on Tuesday as investors pushed the risk premiums on Spanish and Italian bonds to euro lifetime highs and Portugal warned of the risks facing its banks.

The euro dipped to its lowest level against the dollar in over two months, immune to new attempts by European policymakers to calm markets hell-bent on testing the EU's determination to shield its financially weak members.

Two days after the bloc approved an 85 billion euro (US$111.7 billion) emergency aid package for Ireland, worries about Portugal and Spain persisted and the borrowing costs of countries like Italy, Belgium and France shot higher.

Markets are already discounting an eventual rescue of Portugal although, as Ireland did, it says it requires no outside help.

Should its much larger neighbor Spain require assistance, it would sorely test the resources of the bloc and raise questions about the integrity of the 12-year old single currency area.

"Markets are very nervous and may even target situations that do not warrant such excessive worrying, hence no one can really predict," Tomasso Padoa-Schioppa, a former Italian finance minister and ECB member, told a Greek newspaper when asked whether the EU would be able to save Spain.

"In my opinion, conditions in Spain are such that there is absolutely no reason to expect that it will be targeted. I repeat, however, that markets are in a very nervous mood."

Italy, which most analysts see as at lesser risk, is now being referred to as "too big to fail" and "too big to bail."

The euro dipped below US$1.30 for the first time since mid-September and the yield spreads of 10-year Spanish, Italian

and Belgian bonds over German benchmarks spiked to their highest levels since the birth of the euro in January 1999.

The cost of insuring most eurozone government debt against default rose and European shares banking shares fell over 1% in nervous trading.

"INTOLERABLE RISK"

Portugal's central bank warned overnight that its country's banks faced an "intolerable risk" if the government in Lisbon failed to consolidate public finances and urged financial institutions to reinforce their capital in the coming years.

Although the minority Socialist government in Portugal approved an austerity budget for 2011 last week, it is struggling to meet its targets for deficit reduction, with the core state sector shortfall widening 1.8% in the first 10 months of this year.

Troubles in Portugal could spread quickly to Spain because of their close economic ties.

The German economy has been robust this year on the back of rising exports and surprisingly strong domestic demand, but countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain face little or no growth and high unemployment.

Ireland faces a particularly daunting task in meeting the terms of its bailout and cleaning up its battered banks. Irish bank debt spreads continued to widen on Tuesday despite the rescue.

In addition to the bailout, European leaders approved on Sunday the outlines of a long-term European Stability Mechanism (ESM), based on a Franco-German proposal, that will create a permanent bailout facility and make the private sector gradually share the burden of any future default.

The new mechanism could make private bondholders share the cost of restructuring a euro zone country's debt issued after mid-2013 on a case-by-case basis.

Eurointelligence, an online commentary service, said markets were growing increasingly concerned about the solvency of euro zone peripheral states after focusing mainly on their immediate liquidity problems in past weeks.

Reflecting EU concerns about Greece's ability to pay back the loans in a 110 billion euro EU/IMF bailout agreed back in May, it was given a six-year repayment extension to 2021 at the price of a higher rate of interest.




"CAD- GDP slows considerably in 2Q.."

 "numbers represent decline in exports and drop in housing investment.."
bulls-bears

The Canadian economy grew at the slowest annual pace since the recession between July and September, held back by a currency-fuelled decline in exports and a drop in housing investment even as overall consumer spending stayed relatively steady.

The 1-per-cent rate of expansion – reported Tuesday by Statistics Canada – followed a 2.3-per-cent clip during the second quarter, reinforcing that a recovery which earlier this year was the envy of the Group of Seven nations has given way to a long stretch of underwhelming growth that could last for years.

The third-quarter reading compares with the 1.4-1.5-per cent growth rate expected by most economists, and was well below Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney’s estimate of 1.6 per cent annual growth for the three-month period.

Want to manage currency risk and increase revenue? Learn more about

Risk Management

 

Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro remained trading on a sell tone against most currencies, and the EUR/USD dropped to 1.3000 area, with mid-term pressure on the downside, as the pair's breach through 1.3334 confirmed downtrend from from 1.4282, heading to 1.2588.

USD:  Continual Eurozone news has strengthened the USD..due to it's "safe-haven" status. Currently, the bullish trend continues..if it maintains this trend...we may possibly reach the mid 1.0300 levels.

CAD:  No relief for the commodity or equity markets earlier this morning, will the U.S. equity markets continue this bullish trend?

Great day for sellers of the USD so far...

Today's range...higher 1.0100 to mid 1.0300 levels.

GBP:  The Pound's is continuing it's downward decline as news out the Eurozone is causing all majors to weaken. If it continues and breaks the lower 1.5400 barrier...we may see the mid 1.5300 levels last reached in mid-September of this year.

JPY:   Coming off yesterday’s two month high at 84.40, the USD/JPY has been steadily creeping lower today while breaking under 84.00 in morning trading over Europe. The pair hit bottom around 83.75, and subsequently has found firm support and been buoyed slightly to the upside as it currently trades sideways around 83.85.

Want to lock in an exchange rate for the future? Learn more about

Forward Contracts

Follow our "tweets" and get up-to-date currency movements daily on Twitter @ http://twitter.com/taheriexchange
 
Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support:  1.0216   Resistance: 1.0335

CAD/JPY

Support:  80.70   Resistance:  81.72

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3257  Resistance: 1.3407

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.2885  Resistance: 1.3076

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5440  Resistance: 1.5572

Want us to monitor the market 24 hours for your target rate? Learn   more about

Overnight Orders

This email contains confidential information, is intended only for the named recipient and is privileged. Distributing or copying this email without express consent of Taheri Exchange (TE) is prohibited. If you are not the named recipient, notify us immediately and permanently destroy this email and all copies. Email is not private, secure, or reliable. TE is not liable for any errors or omissions in the content or transmission of this email. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources, and, notwithstanding TE. TE makes efforts to ensure that the contents thereof have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate. TE has not independently verified and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof and takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein. TE shall not be liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user). The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein shall not be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. TE, its affiliates, and/or their respective shareholders, directors, officers and/or employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any products.

unscribe/subscribe to: rick@taheriexchange.com

                                               5775 Yonge Street
                                              Toronto, ON Canada
                                                        M2M 4J1
                                                  T: 416-488-8822
                                                  F: 416-488-4022
                                                T: 1-888-712-999
Forward Contracts

Risk Management

Overnight Orders

Contact Us

Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Consumer confidence data.
CAD - GDP data.

handshake
Customized Service.
Taheri understands your business, and can tailor foreign exchange services that satisfy your unique needs
View our archived FX reports
http://www.taheriexchange.com/news

Share this