Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 85         www.taheriexchange.com   30th of August 2010
worldfx

"Canadian Finance Minister has concerns over U.S struggling economy ..."

"The United States is still struggling, and that's a major worry for the Canadian economy..."



The United States' struggling economy and jobs market is a big concern for Canada, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said yesterday, adding that Canadian economic growth likely eased in the second quarter from the first three months of the year.

Canada, this year's chair of the G7 group of industrialized nations, has weathered the global financial crisis better than most of its peers but it is very exposed to a faltering recovery in the United States, which buys most its exports.

"The United States is still struggling, and that's a major worry for the Canadian economy," Mr. Flaherty told a business lunch while on a visit to Ireland. He cited weak consumer demand and persistent unemployment as some of the main concerns in the United States.

In Canada, Mr. Flaherty said growth in gross domestic product probably moderated in the second quarter of 2010 from the first quarter or in the last three months of 2009.

"That was relatively extraordinary growth [in previous quarters], higher than we had anticipated," he told journalists. "So we do expect, as the IMF does, more moderate growth for the balance of this year and into 2011," he added.

Canada is due to release second quarter gross domestic product data next week.

Asked if worries about the struggling U.S. economy would make him revise plans to exit a stimulus program, Mr. Flaherty said: "We'll just stay on track, complete the economic action plan, it's working."

He added there were also some positive signs in the U.S. economy and developed nations on the whole could look forward to moderate growth in coming years.

"We have to be carefully monitoring ... to make sure we don't slide backwards into any sort of double dip [globally]," he told the lunch after an expose on his own Irish ancestry.

Earlier yesterday, Mr. Flaherty came to Ireland's defence, saying it had a solid bank plan and was Europe's leader in fiscal reform. The views of rating agencies, such as S&P's downgrade of Ireland this week, should not be taken too seriously, he said.



"USD- Consumer spending rises in the month of July...

 "CAD- Exports slowdown in 2Q.."

bulls-bears

 
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in July, exceeding gains in incomes, a sign the improvement will not last without more jobs.

Purchases rose 0.4 percent, the most since March, after little change the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes climbed 0.2 percent, less than projected, and the savings rate dropped. 

Disposable incomes, or the money left over after taxes, dropped for the first time since January after adjusting for inflation, showing the lack of jobs is hurting Americans’ spending power.

“This, so far, is allaying near-term double-dip concerns,” said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto, referring to fears the world’s largest economy will tip back into a recession. “It nonetheless showcases very lackluster growth in the U.S. economy.”



A slowdown in exports to the United States caused Canada’s current account deficit to widen more than expected in the second quarter to $11.02-billion, Statistics Canada said Monday.

The country’s seventh consecutive current account shortfall was larger than the the $10.7-billion deficit analysts had predicted in a Reuters poll and represented a deterioration from the revised first-quarter deficit of $8.46-billion.

Statscan revised its first-quarter figure from an initial estimate of a $7.82-billion deficit.

Canada’s balance of trade in goods returned to a deficit in the second quarter after two quarters of surplus, as shipments of energy products and industrial goods declined and the country’s trade surplus shrank with its top market, the United States.

The deficit in trade in services widened however, pushed up primarily by Canadian travelers spending more abroad, while foreign spending on services inside the country declined.

This was partially offset by a reduced investment income deficit as a result of bigger profits by Canadian direct investors abroad, while returns for foreign investors in Canada fell.



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EUR:  The Euro is trading on a slightly weak note on Monday, retreating slowly but steadily from 1.2770/80 resistance area which was tested on Asian session opening, and trading at the moment at 1.2715 session low.


USD:  The Dollar has remained unchanged after the release of US income and consumption data, which has shown meager advances in US residents' income as well as in spending trends in July.

The theme of "uncertainty" is continuing in investor's minds, this week the anticipated "Non-Farm Payrolls" data due on Friday will cause a stir in the market. Today's range will be from the possible higher 1.0400 to higher 1.0500 level.

CAD:  Optimism has subsided and the CAD hasn't benefited much from last week's data. The question for this week, will we see the trading range for the USD/CAD in the lower 1.0400 possibly dipping to higher 1.0300 levels..or the reverse back into the 1.0600 level?

GBP:   The Pound's retreat from 1.5600 high on Thursday found support at 1.5440 low on Friday, and the Sterling bounced up to extend recovery on Monday's Asian session, reaching 1.5575 high, where the pair has stalled, just 25 pips below Thursday's high.

JPY:  The Yen has soared across the board on Monday, giving away most of the ground taken on Friday on the back of financial markets disappointment towards BoJ monetary policy actions to curb Yen strength which is threatening Japanese exports, a crucial aspect on the country's GDP.

USD/JPY recovery from 15-year low at 83.60 extended to 85.90, right at Aug 19 low on early Asian session, and the pair has dropped aggressively during Most of Asian and the European sessions, giving away about 130 pips, returning below 85.00 to reach 84.60.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0472   Resistance: 1.0596

CAD/JPY

Support:  79.78   Resistance:  81.31  

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3349  Resistance: 1.3461

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.2648  Resistance: 1.2777

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5441  Resistance: 1.5563

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD-Personal Income & Personal spending data.
CAD - Current Account Balance data.

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