Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 190         www.taheriexchange.com   31st of January 2011

 

 

Technical Ranges 
CAD, USD, EUR, GBP & JPY
technical charts

USD/CAD

Support:  0.9915        Resistance: 1.0025

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.80        Resistance:  82.69

EUR/CAD

Support:  1.3603     Resistance:  1.3766

EUR/USD

Support:  1.3605     Resistance:  1.3756

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5833     Resistance:  1.5975

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Currency Commentary

EUR, USD, CAD, GBP , JPY


EUR:   The Euro rejection from Thursday's high at 1.3760 extended last Friday on risk aversion amid escalating tensions in Egypt, reaching 1.3570 low, where the pair found support to bounce up on Monday, taking back Friday's losses and returning to levels above 1.3700.


USD:   With the crisis in Egypt lingering, positive U.S. data continues to bring more weakness to the USD. This week, more key U.S. data out..and if this positive trend continues....will the USD/CAD dip down back into the 0.9800 range?

CAD:   Oil rose slightly due to the situation in Egypt, GDP in Canada very positive...all good news for a stronger "Loonie" once more. The tensions in the middle east has not caused a major move on the pair..currently it remains in the higher 0.9900 range.

A good day for both buyers and sellers of the USD.

Expected range .. similar to last Friday possible lower  0.9900 to 1.0000 levels.

GBP:   The Pound's rejection from 1.5885 high right ahead of the London Session opening, was contained at 1.5830, and the pair bounced up again through the session, reaching 1.5885 level again.


JPY:    The Dollar rally from 82.00 lows last week was capped at 83.20 on Thursday, and then pair gave away gains on Friday weighed by increasing risk aversion on US session, dropping to 82.00 area, to extend in Asia, hitting prices right above 81.85 -Jan 19 low.

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worldfx

" Global markets shaky due to Egypt uprising  "....

" Whilst Egypt's importance to the global economy is limited, it's importance to the transportation of oil is huge".....

Global shares continued to slide on Monday, while Europe’s benchmark Brent crude was just short of US$100 a barrel on fears political unrest in Egypt could spread among regional oil-producing nations.

Protests to end the 30-year rule of President Hosni Mubarak continued over the weekend, heightening risk aversion for European investors already concerned by the effect their own region’s sovereign debt crisis and inflation could have on growth.

Moody’s Investors Service Inc. Monday downgraded Egypt’s government bond ratings to Ba2 from Ba1 and changed its outlook to negative from stable citing political risk.

“Whilst Egypt’s importance to the global economy is limited, its importance to the transportation of oil is huge,” said Jonathan Sudaria, night dealer at London Capital Group.

“Traders are concerned that with already rising inflation and falling real incomes for consumers, a further rise in energy prices could really dampen any consumer confidence and prospects for growth.”

Benchmark Brent crude had come off slightly to trade down 0.4% at US$98.93 a barrel by 0900 GMT, after hitting a 28-month high on Friday.

“The Egyptian situation looks to be the primary factor,” said David Land, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. The market is reacting to “what this could mean in terms of stability for such a vital region for energy production,” he added.

The protests in Egypt follow the collapse of the Tunisian government two weeks ago, and there are fears of similar unrest in other autocratic states including oil-rich Gulf nations.

Protest-contagion fears and risk aversion pushed European shares lower again at the open, with the FTSEurofirst 300 down 1% at 0900 GMT after falling 1% on Friday.

Elsewhere, the MSCI world equity index and Thomson Reuters global stock index were also both down around 0.5%, while emerging stocks were down 1%.

Overnight in Asia, the Nikkei share average had ended down 1.2% while the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan stock index fell 1.1%.

Among commodities, spot gold steadied after hitting an Egypt-fuelled eight-week high on Friday, while copper rose 1.1% and other base metals also gained on short-covering ahead of a week-long Chinese holiday.

EURO, BUNDS STEADY

Weakness in equities helped Bund futures edge higher in early trade, with the prospect of further turmoil in the Middle East underpinning sentiment.

The Bund future was up 0.1% to 123.87 by 0849 GMT compared with 123.73 at Friday’s settlement close.

Cash 10-year Bund yields and the two-year Schatz yield were both flat.

Moody’s on Monday downgraded Egypt to Ba2 with a negative outlook on the back of the protests, citing a “far more uncertain outlook.”

In currency markets, the euro was up 0.1% against the dollar by 0853 GMT, steadying after a Friday selloff on the back of the Egypt protests.

The dollar was flat against a basket of major currencies.


" USD- Consumer spending improves in December.. .."..

" CAD- GDP numbers higher than expected for November".....

bulls-bears

Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in December, capping its strongest quarter in more than four years.

Purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, increased 0.7 percent after climbing 0.3 percent the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes increased for a third month, and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation advanced at the slowest pace on record.

Households are driving demand at companies from Coach Inc. to Ford Motor Co. and bolstering the recovery. The economy needs even faster growth to reduce unemployment, which is projected to average more than 9 percent this year, one reason Fed policy makers are pushing ahead with a second round of monetary stimulus worth $600 billion.

“The consumer is doing OK, and household spending will continue to grow this year,” Nigel Gualt, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. “We expect it to continue to play a part in this recovery.”



Canada’s economy grew more than expected in November, led by the oil and gas extraction sector, Statistics Canada said Monday.

Gross domestic product edged up 0.4% during the month, the federal agency said, following an advance of 0.2% in October.

Economists has expected GDP to grow by about 0.3% in November.

“This increase was mainly attributable to higher synthetic crude petroleum production following the completion of maintenance to upgraders,” the agency said.

The Bank of Canada has forecast economic growth of 2.3% for the fourth quarter of 2010.

The central bank also expects growth of 2.4% this year and 2.7% in 2012.


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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- Personal consumption, income and spending data.
CAD - GDP data.

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