Taheri Exchange Daily FX Report
Issue: # 110         www.taheriexchange.com   6th of October 2010
worldfx

"IMF concerned about possible 'currency war' brewing "..

"It's doing nothing for the American economy, but it's causing chaos over the rest of the world"


The head of the IMF warned that a growing drive by nations to cap the strength of their currencies risked derailing economic recovery while the dollar dropped further on Wednesday.

Concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve is about to embark on another round of policy easing that could weaken the dollar, tallied with China’s polite refusal to let its yuan rise fast, has pushed currencies to the top of the agenda at Friday’s meeting of finance chiefs from the Group of Seven nations.

Few hold out much hope of any meaningful agreement at the G7 or the International Monetary Fund meeting that follows.

“It’s doing nothing for the American economy, but it’s causing chaos over the rest of the world. It’s a very strange policy that they are pursuing,” Nobel economics laureate Joseph Stiglitz said of U.S. policy.

The dollar extended its losses on Wednesday, falling to an 8-1/2 month low against a basket of currencies and edging towards a 15-year trough versus the yen.

That trend prompted Japan to intervene to weaken the yen last month and some emerging economies have followed suit or are threatening to.

“There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon,” IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn was quoted as saying in Wednesday’s edition of the Financial Times.

“Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery ... Any such approach would have a negative and very damaging longer-run impact,” he said.

The IMF, which holds its twice-yearly meeting in Washington this weekend, is also expected to discuss foreign exchange moves as part of its mission to get countries working for balanced global growth.

Brendan Brown, economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International in London, said the Fund, which has the United States as its biggest stakeholder, would not try to prevent further U.S. monetary easing or a resulting slide of the dollar.

“That Washington institution has failed in its central mission to prevent currency war,” he wrote in a report.

CHINA UNMOVED

Euro zone policymakers urged Chinese premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday to allow the yuan to rise more rapidly, but he politely rebuffed them, repeating Beijing’s standard line on seeking currency stability.

Wen was due to hold a joint news conference with EU leaders in Brussels at 1515 GMT.

Policymakers have highlighted the issue of global imbalances for years, with fundamental problems seen as the dollar’s global dominance, China’s overvalued yuan and Germany’s lack of domestic consumption.

Emerging nations say the cash flows seen this year have damaged their exports due to the determination of major economies to restrain their own currencies’ levels.

But entrenched positions make it unlikely that officials sitting down to IMF and G7 meetings this weekend, and G20 meetings later in the year, will resolve their differences.

Brazil fired the latest shot in what it has dubbed an “international currency war,” doubling on Monday a tax on foreign investors buying local bonds to 4% to curb a strong real.

Policymakers from emerging Asian economies have voiced growing concerns about the risk of a flood of hot money inflows. South Korea warned investors it might impose further limits on forward trading and India and Thailand said they were looking at steps to control speculative surges.

“It’s natural in that context for them to say — we can’t just let our exchange rates appreciate and destroy our exports,” Mr. Stiglitz told reporters at Columbia University on Tuesday.

MORE FED EASING?

Adding to speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon extend asset purchases to pump money into the economy, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans was quoted as saying the central bank should do much more to spur the economy.

And in a surprise move, Japan pulled interest rates on the yen back to zero on Tuesday and pledged to pump more funds into an economy struggling to compete while the currency remains close to a 15-year high against the dollar.

The euro gained 7.6% versus the dollar last month as Fed easing speculation hotted up. Europeans are worried they will be saddled with an overvalued currency, stifling recovery, because they have few tools to contain the euro’s rise.

France, which takes over the presidency of the Group of 20 major economic powers next month, has put reforming the international monetary system at the top of its agenda, hoping to draw China into multilateral talks on currency coordination.



"USD- ADP numbers showing decline in jobs.."

 "Although labor conditions remain weak, we anticipate further improvement taking hold in the coming months.."

bulls-bears

Companies in the U.S. unexpectedly cut workers in September, data from a private report based on payrolls showed.

Employment decreased by 39,000 after a revised 10,000 gain in August, according to figures today from ADP Employer Services.Forecasts ranged from a decline of 44,000 to a 75,000 increase.

A loss of jobs raises the risk that consumer spending, the largest part of the economy, will retrench and halt the recovery. A Labor Department report in two days will show companies added 75,000 workers last month, economists project.

“Although labor conditions remain weak, we anticipate further improvement taking hold in the coming months as conditions gradually improve,” Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York, said before the report.

Over the previous six reports, ADP’s initial figures were closest to the Labor Department’s first estimate of private payrolls in May, when it overestimated the gain in jobs by 14,000. The estimate was least accurate in April, when it underestimated the employment gain by 199,000.


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Currency Commentary
EUR, USD, CAD, GBP & JPY

EUR:  The Euro has been pushing higher during European session, favoured by the positive tone in equity markets and after brief consolidation above 1.3800, the pair has ticked higher to hit fresh 8-month highs at 1.3880.


USD: 
Weak ADP numbers data in the U.S. has caused the USD/CAD to rise from the lower 1.0108 levels..as there was a clear bearish trend. Tomorrow's Initial jobless claims will be the additional piece to the jobs outcome in the U.S. economy. Combining both pieces of data for the awaited Non-Farm Payroll numbers.

If we see continue weak data from these indicators...the trend will continue bullish USD..and reverse the bearish trend.

CAD:  Since last Friday and till today...buyers of USD have been seeing fantastic rates. At present, even though the US data had come out weak, the bearish trend is continuing... Will this trend continue today..or will the week end back into the mid 1.0200 levels..and descend higher?

All dependant on market reaction to the key pieces of data..the next 2 days.

Expected range for today, we may see possibly the very low 1.0000 levels...to 1.0200.

GBP:  The Pound's rally from yesterday's low at 1,5750 has peaked at 1.5940 high, as the pair, weighed by weak ADP employment figures, has retreated further, breaking below 1.5870 support level to hit session low at 1.5840.

JPY:
  The Dollar has weakened against the safe-haven Yen after the un3expected decline of ADP employment figures, and from levels around 83.00, the pair has spiked down to a fresh 15-year low at 82.75, to pick up above 83.00 afterwards.


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Technical Ranges
CAD, USD, EUR, JPY & GBP

technical chartsUSD/CAD                                                        

Support: 1.0072   Resistance: 1.0201

CAD/JPY

Support:  81.17   Resistance:  82.37

 EUR/CAD

 Support: 1.3955  Resistance: 1.4136

 

 EUR/USD

 Support:  1.3772  Resistance: 1.3975

GBP/USD

Support:  1.5808  Resistance: 1.5917

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Main USD/CAD data today:

1. USD- ADP employment change data.
CAD - IVEY Purchasing Mgrs Index data.

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