The
head of the IMF warned that a growing drive by nations to cap the
strength of their currencies risked derailing economic recovery while
the dollar dropped further on Wednesday.
Concerns that the U.S.
Federal Reserve is about to embark on another round of policy easing
that could weaken the dollar, tallied with China’s polite refusal to
let its yuan rise fast, has pushed currencies to the top of the agenda
at Friday’s meeting of finance chiefs from the Group of Seven nations.
Few hold out much hope of any meaningful agreement at the G7 or the International Monetary Fund meeting that follows.
“It’s
doing nothing for the American economy, but it’s causing chaos over the
rest of the world. It’s a very strange policy that they are pursuing,”
Nobel economics laureate Joseph Stiglitz said of U.S. policy.
The
dollar extended its losses on Wednesday, falling to an 8-1/2 month low
against a basket of currencies and edging towards a 15-year trough
versus the yen.
That trend prompted Japan to intervene to weaken
the yen last month and some emerging economies have followed suit or
are threatening to.
“There is clearly the idea beginning to
circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon,” IMF Managing
Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn was quoted as saying in Wednesday’s
edition of the Financial Times.
“Translated into action, such an
idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery ... Any
such approach would have a negative and very damaging longer-run
impact,” he said.
The IMF, which holds its twice-yearly meeting
in Washington this weekend, is also expected to discuss foreign
exchange moves as part of its mission to get countries working for
balanced global growth.
Brendan Brown, economist at Mitsubishi
UFJ Securities International in London, said the Fund, which has the
United States as its biggest stakeholder, would not try to prevent
further U.S. monetary easing or a resulting slide of the dollar.
“That Washington institution has failed in its central mission to prevent currency war,” he wrote in a report.
CHINA UNMOVED
Euro
zone policymakers urged Chinese premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday to allow
the yuan to rise more rapidly, but he politely rebuffed them, repeating
Beijing’s standard line on seeking currency stability.
Wen was due to hold a joint news conference with EU leaders in Brussels at 1515 GMT.
Policymakers
have highlighted the issue of global imbalances for years, with
fundamental problems seen as the dollar’s global dominance, China’s
overvalued yuan and Germany’s lack of domestic consumption.
Emerging
nations say the cash flows seen this year have damaged their exports
due to the determination of major economies to restrain their own
currencies’ levels.
But entrenched positions make it unlikely
that officials sitting down to IMF and G7 meetings this weekend, and
G20 meetings later in the year, will resolve their differences.
Brazil
fired the latest shot in what it has dubbed an “international currency
war,” doubling on Monday a tax on foreign investors buying local bonds
to 4% to curb a strong real.
Policymakers from emerging Asian
economies have voiced growing concerns about the risk of a flood of hot
money inflows. South Korea warned investors it might impose further
limits on forward trading and India and Thailand said they were looking
at steps to control speculative surges.
“It’s natural in that
context for them to say — we can’t just let our exchange rates
appreciate and destroy our exports,” Mr. Stiglitz told reporters at
Columbia University on Tuesday.
MORE FED EASING?
Adding to
speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon extend asset purchases
to pump money into the economy, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans was
quoted as saying the central bank should do much more to spur the
economy.
And in a surprise move, Japan pulled interest rates on
the yen back to zero on Tuesday and pledged to pump more funds into an
economy struggling to compete while the currency remains close to a
15-year high against the dollar.
The euro gained 7.6% versus the
dollar last month as Fed easing speculation hotted up. Europeans are
worried they will be saddled with an overvalued currency, stifling
recovery, because they have few tools to contain the euro’s rise.
France,
which takes over the presidency of the Group of 20 major economic
powers next month, has put reforming the international monetary system
at the top of its agenda, hoping to draw China into multilateral talks
on currency coordination.