The
Canadian dollar soared above US99¢ to a five-month high Wednesday,
tossed higher in foreign exchange markets roiled by a sinking U.S.
greenback.
The loonie is being pushed higher amid speculation the
U.S. Federal Reserve will soon ease monetary policy, sending the
greenback down even further. Moves by other countries to cap their
currencies, in response to the plunging greenback, are making the
loonie an attractive alternative for investors.
Countries are scrambling to keep their currencies competitive in a global battle over exports.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty expressed concern Wednesday about how this so-called currency war would play out in Canada.
There
is “a danger” countries such as Canada, which allows the loonie to
float freely in foreign-exchange markets, would become “disadvantaged
by certain interventions made by other countries and [currency]
inflexibility,” he said. “We don’t want these type of distortions in
currency values and trading relationships.”
In the recent past,
robust consumer spending, especially in the housing sector, would
offset weak trade data. But there’s doubt that can be replicated this
time as household balance sheets have become increasingly stretched, as
Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last week.
Mr.
Flaherty’s worries are justified, as net trade knocked a whopping 4.4
percentage points off GDP growth in the second quarter.
A
stronger dollar would mean net trade continues to be drag “with the
chance to deteriorate even more,” said Eric Lascelles, chief Canadian
strategist at TD Securities.
In recent days, Japan, South Korea
and Brazil have intervened to cap the appreciation in their currencies.
In addition, Japan cut interest rates even further, from 0.1%, and
announced plans to buy up assets to lower longer-term lending costs.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected to pursue so-called
quantitative easing, as inflation remains too low and job creation is
proceeding at near crawl.
This activity in foreign exchange
markets and the anticipated flood of additional U.S. dollars has sent
investors to Canada, whose central bank shows no sign of further
easing, and hard assets, like gold and commodities. This double-whammy
helped push up the loonie over the US99¢ mark before finishing the
session at US98.97¢, or a 67-basis-point gain.
“We are on the
receiving end of all this,” said Stéfane Marion, chief economist at
National Bank Financial. He added the federal government might need to
consider providing some form of fiscal support to help companies absorb
what could end up being a “large shock” on the exchange-rate front.
In
its latest global economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund
said that Canada -- which is expected to be the top economic performer
among major advanced economies -- has fiscal room to manoeuvre “should
conditions worsen unexpectedly.”
Derek Holt, vice-president of
economics at Scotia Capital, said recent developments in Japan and on
foreign exchange markets present new wrinkles for the Bank of Canada.
“The
Bank of Canada could well ultimately face comparable exit challenges to
other central banks even without Canadian [quantitative easing] via
having little near-term choice but to maintain too low rates for too
long,” he said in a note to clients. “That could only further aggravate
domestic imbalances in housing and household finances, or defer needed
adjustments.”
Yields on 10- and 30-year government of Canada
bonds have either dropped below or are near levels hit at the peak of
the 2008 credit crunch, which means borrowing costs will still look
tempting to households, even if balance sheets are stressed.
“Maybe that’s why the Bank of Canada is going out of its way to warn
households not to over do it,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief
economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Yet, Mr. Porter added Canada
could recoup some benefits from U.S. quantitative-easing efforts.
Should the Fed’s efforts succeed in revving up the U.S. recovery, then
Canadian GDP stands to benefit. Plus, Canada stands to gain from better
terms of trade as commodity prices surge on U.S.-dollar weakness.
As
for household debt levels, they are admittedly high. Still, Canadian
consumers have some flexibility as asset values have also surged and
could continue to do so should easing measures drive stock markets
higher, Mr. Porter said.